Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018GL081580 |
Atmospheric Circulation Response to Anomalous Siberian Forcing in October 2016 and its Long-Range Predictability | |
Tyrrell, Nicholas L.1; Karpechko, Alexey Yu.1; Uotila, Petteri2; Vihma, Timo1 | |
2019-03-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
![]() |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 46期号:5页码:2800-2810 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Finland |
英文摘要 | The warm Arctic-cold continent pattern was of record strength in October 2016, providing the opportunity to test its proposed influence on large-scale atmospheric circulation. We find a record weak polar stratospheric vortex and negative North Atlantic Oscillation in November-December 2016 and link them to increased planetary wave generation associated with cold Siberian anomalies followed by troposphere-stratosphere dynamical coupling. At the same time the warm Arctic anomalies, in particular those over the Barents-Kara Seas, do not appear to play an important role in forcing the atmospheric circulation. Long-range forecasts initialized on 1 October 2016 reproduced both the weak polar vortex and negative North Atlantic Oscillation, as well as their link with the Siberian temperatures. Our results support the stratospheric pathway for atmospheric circulation forcing associated with Siberian surface anomalies and uncover a source of skill for subseasonal forecasts from October to December. Plain Language Summary The warm Arctic-cold continent pattern is an observed, large-scale pattern of near-surface temperatures where the Arctic is warmer than average and Siberia is colder than average. This pattern was of record strength in October 2016, providing the opportunity to test its influence on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation and the possibility of skillful long-range forecasts. It has been proposed that the warm Arctic-cold continent pattern can drive large atmospheric waves, which are able to travel from the troposphere into the stratosphere, where they weaken the strong wintertime winds that make up the stratospheric polar vortex. A weakened polar vortex can then lead to changes in the surface pressure that can affect weather patterns. We find a record weak polar stratospheric vortex in late autumn 2016 and link that to cold Siberian anomalies. At the same time the warm Arctic anomalies do not appear to play an important role in forcing the atmospheric circulation. Long-range forecasts initialized in October 2016 reproduced both the weak polar vortex and resulting surface pressure patterns. Our results support the stratospheric pathway for atmospheric circulation forcing by Siberian surface anomalies and uncover a source of skill for subseasonal forecasts in the Northern Hemisphere autumn. |
英文关键词 | autumn 2016 Siberian forcing seasonal forecasting polar vortex stratosphere-troposphere |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000462612900052 |
WOS关键词 | ARCTIC SEA-ICE ; SNOW COVER VARIABILITY ; WAVE ACTIVITY FLUX ; STRATOSPHERE ; WINTER ; CLIMATE ; MECHANISMS ; LINKS |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181642 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Finnish Meteorol Inst, Helsinki, Finland; 2.Univ Helsinki, Inst Atmospher & Earth Syst Res Phys, Helsinki, Finland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tyrrell, Nicholas L.,Karpechko, Alexey Yu.,Uotila, Petteri,et al. Atmospheric Circulation Response to Anomalous Siberian Forcing in October 2016 and its Long-Range Predictability[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(5):2800-2810. |
APA | Tyrrell, Nicholas L.,Karpechko, Alexey Yu.,Uotila, Petteri,&Vihma, Timo.(2019).Atmospheric Circulation Response to Anomalous Siberian Forcing in October 2016 and its Long-Range Predictability.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(5),2800-2810. |
MLA | Tyrrell, Nicholas L.,et al."Atmospheric Circulation Response to Anomalous Siberian Forcing in October 2016 and its Long-Range Predictability".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.5(2019):2800-2810. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论