Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018WR024249 |
How Important Are Model Structural and Contextual Uncertainties when Estimating the Optimized Performance of Water Resource Systems? | |
Dobson, Barnaby1; Wagener, Thorsten1,2; Pianosi, Francesca1 | |
2019-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 55期号:3页码:2170-2193 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | Uncertainty in simulating water resource systems (WRSs) makes it difficult to assess how effective different water management decisions will be. Uncertainty in simulation models can undermine the credibility of simulation and optimization studies and the uptake of their results. We identify different sources of uncertainty in WRS models and find that structural uncertainty (i.e., around definition of interrelationships within the system) and contextual uncertainty (i.e., around definition of the system boundaries) are rarely considered when simulating and optimizing WRSs. We propose a methodology to quantify the effects of structural and contextual uncertainties on the estimated performance of optimized water management decisions and demonstrate that they have a significant impact on a real-world case study of a pumped-storage system in the UK. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to consider the impact of these types of uncertainty on optimized operating policies and their simulated performances. Our main finding is that of all the considered uncertainties, the assumptions made about context-specifically around the level of cooperation between neighboring water companies-had the greatest impact on performance estimates. This is important because few WRSs exist in isolation, yet discussion of the effects that a given definition of the system boundaries have on the simulation/optimization results is uncommon. We also highlight the significance of adequately considering aleatory uncertainty when evaluating performance estimates-something that few studies do-and present a simple technique to justify the sample size used for the evaluation of optimization results. |
英文关键词 | reservoirs decision making under uncertainty system operation and management multiobjective optimization water management |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000464660000022 |
WOS关键词 | DYNAMIC-PROGRAMMING MODELS ; MULTIRESERVOIR SYSTEMS ; RESERVOIR SYSTEMS ; MANAGEMENT ; OPERATION ; RIVER ; RISK ; STATIONARITY ; INFORMATION ; RELIABILITY |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181571 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Bristol, Dept Civil Engn, Bristol, Avon, England; 2.Univ Bristol, Cabot Inst, Bristol, Avon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dobson, Barnaby,Wagener, Thorsten,Pianosi, Francesca. How Important Are Model Structural and Contextual Uncertainties when Estimating the Optimized Performance of Water Resource Systems?[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2019,55(3):2170-2193. |
APA | Dobson, Barnaby,Wagener, Thorsten,&Pianosi, Francesca.(2019).How Important Are Model Structural and Contextual Uncertainties when Estimating the Optimized Performance of Water Resource Systems?.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,55(3),2170-2193. |
MLA | Dobson, Barnaby,et al."How Important Are Model Structural and Contextual Uncertainties when Estimating the Optimized Performance of Water Resource Systems?".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 55.3(2019):2170-2193. |
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