Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.06.003 |
Electricity capacity expansion plan for Lesotho - implications on energy policy | |
Senatla, Mamahloko1; Nchake, Mamello2,5; Taele, Benedict M.3; Hapazari, Innocent4 | |
2018-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY
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ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 120页码:622-634 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | South Africa; Lesotho |
英文摘要 | This study aims to produce a research-based integrated electricity expansion plan for Lesotho that focuses on the security of supply at national level. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is used to model electrical demand and the PLEXOS modelling tool is used to analyse the cost of investing and producing future electricity for the country. The results underscore the need for investment geared towards local generation particularly in large hydro up to 0.22 GW, PV up to and 1.1 GW and pumped storage up to 0.5 GW by 2050, to keep up with future demand and reduce the cost of imported electricity in the country. Succinctly, the investigation reveals, inter-alia, that: 1) Lesotho's energy demand will continue to increase over the modelled period (up to 2050), with the gap between the local generation and demand concomitantly increasing; 2) large hydro generation, if harnessed will guarantee long-term energy security and cheaper energy relative to both imports and small hydro; 3) any shift in the energy policies of external suppliers at current tariff structures, will increase Lesotho's energy costs significantly, thus, negatively impacting on the country's economy; and 4) investing in local energy generation will guarantee long-term national energy security and affordability. |
英文关键词 | Electricity supply Import Supply deficit Reserve margin Electricity expansion plan ARIMA |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000440123300058 |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17884 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.CSIR, Energy Ctr, ZA-0184 Pretoria, South Africa; 2.Natl Univ Lesotho, Dept Econ, Roma 180, Lesotho; 3.Natl Univ Lesotho, Dept Phys & Elect, Roma 180, Lesotho; 4.Natl Univ Lesotho, Dept Chem & Chem Technol, Roma 180, Lesotho; 5.Univ Cape Town, Sch Econ, Cape Town, South Africa |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Senatla, Mamahloko,Nchake, Mamello,Taele, Benedict M.,et al. Electricity capacity expansion plan for Lesotho - implications on energy policy[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2018,120:622-634. |
APA | Senatla, Mamahloko,Nchake, Mamello,Taele, Benedict M.,&Hapazari, Innocent.(2018).Electricity capacity expansion plan for Lesotho - implications on energy policy.ENERGY POLICY,120,622-634. |
MLA | Senatla, Mamahloko,et al."Electricity capacity expansion plan for Lesotho - implications on energy policy".ENERGY POLICY 120(2018):622-634. |
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