Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.08.012 |
Sensitivity of natural gas deployment in the US power sector to future carbon policy expectations | |
Mignone, Bryan K.1; Showalter, Sharon2; Wood, Frances2; McJeon, Haewon3; Steinberg, Daniel4 | |
2017-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY |
ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 110 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | One option for reducing carbon emissions in the power sector is replacement of coal-fired generation with less carbon-intensive natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) generation. In the United States, where there is abundant, low-cost natural gas supply, increased NGCC deployment could be a cost-effective emissions abatement opportunity at relatively modest carbon prices. However, under scenarios in which carbon prices rise and deeper emissions reductions are achieved, other technologies may be more cost-effective than NGCC in the future. In this analysis, using a US energy system model with foresight (a version of the National Energy Modeling System or "NEMS" model), we find that varying expectations about carbon prices after 2030 does not materially affect NGCC deployment prior to 2030, all else equal. An important implication of this result is that, under the set of natural gas and carbon price trajectories explored here, myopic behavior or other imperfect expectations about potential future carbon policy do not change the natural gas deployment path or lead to stranded natural gas generation infrastructure. We explain these results in terms of the underlying economic competition between available generation technologies and discuss the broader relevance to US climate change mitigation policy. |
英文关键词 | Natural gas Climate change mitigation Energy system transformation Energy modeling |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000417660800051 |
WOS关键词 | SHALE GAS ; HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS ; GHG EMISSIONS ; METHANE ; ELECTRICITY ; TRANSITION ; GENERATION ; SYSTEMS ; LEAKAGE ; REGION |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17814 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.ExxonMobil Res & Engn Co, 1545 Route 22 East, Annandale, NJ 08801 USA; 2.OnLocation Inc, 501 Church St,Suite 300, Vienna, VA 22180 USA; 3.Joint Global Change Res Inst, Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, 5825 Univ Res Court, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; 4.Natl Renewable Energy Lab, 15013 Denver West Pkwy, Golden, CO 80401 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mignone, Bryan K.,Showalter, Sharon,Wood, Frances,et al. Sensitivity of natural gas deployment in the US power sector to future carbon policy expectations[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2017,110. |
APA | Mignone, Bryan K.,Showalter, Sharon,Wood, Frances,McJeon, Haewon,&Steinberg, Daniel.(2017).Sensitivity of natural gas deployment in the US power sector to future carbon policy expectations.ENERGY POLICY,110. |
MLA | Mignone, Bryan K.,et al."Sensitivity of natural gas deployment in the US power sector to future carbon policy expectations".ENERGY POLICY 110(2017). |
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