Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13519 |
High-resolution tide projections reveal extinction threshold in response to sea-level rise | |
Field, Christopher R.1,2; Bayard, Trina S.3; Gjerdrum, Carina4; Hill, Jason M.5; Meiman, Susan6; Elphick, Chris S.1,2 | |
2017-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 23期号:5 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Canada |
英文摘要 | Sea-level rise will affect coastal species worldwide, but models that aim to predict these effects are typically based on simple measures of sea level that do not capture its inherent complexity, especially variation over timescales shorter than 1 year. Coastal species might be most affected, however, by floods that exceed a critical threshold. The frequency and duration of such floods may be more important to population dynamics than mean measures of sea level. In particular, the potential for changes in the frequency and duration of flooding events to result in nonlinear population responses or biological thresholds merits further research, but may require that models incorporate greater resolution in sea level than is typically used. We created population simulations for a threatened songbird, the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus), in a region where sea level is predictable with high accuracy and precision. We show that incorporating the timing of semidiurnal high tide events throughout the breeding season, including how this timing is affected by mean sea-level rise, predicts a reproductive threshold that is likely to cause a rapid demographic shift. This shift is likely to threaten the persistence of saltmarsh sparrows beyond 2060 and could cause extinction as soon as 2035. Neither extinction date nor the population trajectory was sensitive to the emissions scenarios underlying sea-level projections, as most of the population decline occurred before scenarios diverge. Our results suggest that the variation and complexity of climate-driven variables could be important for understanding the potential responses of coastal species to sea-level rise, especially for species that rely on coastal areas for reproduction. |
英文关键词 | extinction threshold population viability saltmarsh sparrow sea-level rise tidal marsh tide projection |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000397800600024 |
WOS关键词 | SHARP-TAILED SPARROWS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; POPULATION VIABILITY ; SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS ; SEDIMENTATION-RATES ; SALT MARSHES ; HABITAT ; VARIABILITY ; EVENTS ; COAST |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17743 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Connecticut, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Ctr Conservat & Biodivers, 75 N Eagleville Rd,Unit 3043, Storrs, CT 06269 USA; 2.Univ Connecticut, Inst Biol Risk, 75 N Eagleville Rd,Unit 3043, Storrs, CT 06269 USA; 3.Audubon Washington, 5902 Lake Washington Blvd S, Seattle, WA 98118 USA; 4.Environm & Climate Change Canada, 45 Alderney Dr, Dartmouth, NS B2Y 2N6, Canada; 5.Vermont Ctr Ecostudies, POB 420, Norwich, VT 05055 USA; 6.Inst Wildlife Studies, 2327 Kettner Blvd, San Diego, CA 92101 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Field, Christopher R.,Bayard, Trina S.,Gjerdrum, Carina,et al. High-resolution tide projections reveal extinction threshold in response to sea-level rise[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2017,23(5). |
APA | Field, Christopher R.,Bayard, Trina S.,Gjerdrum, Carina,Hill, Jason M.,Meiman, Susan,&Elphick, Chris S..(2017).High-resolution tide projections reveal extinction threshold in response to sea-level rise.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,23(5). |
MLA | Field, Christopher R.,et al."High-resolution tide projections reveal extinction threshold in response to sea-level rise".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 23.5(2017). |
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