Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.14144 |
Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate-change mitigation efforts | |
Krause, Andreas1; Pugh, Thomas A. M.1,2,3; Bayer, Anita D.1; Li, Wei4; Leung, Felix5; Bondeau, Alberte6; Doelman, Jonathan C.7; Humpenoeder, Florian8; Anthoni, Peter1; Bodirsky, Benjamin L.8; Ciais, Philippe4; Mueller, Christoph8; Murray-Tortarolo, Guillermo5,9; Olin, Stefan10; Popp, Alexander8; Sitch, Stephen5; Stehfest, Elke7; Arneth, Almut1 | |
2018-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 24期号:7页码:3025-3038 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; England; France; Netherlands; Mexico; Sweden |
英文摘要 | Most climate mitigation scenarios involve negative emissions, especially those that aim to limit global temperature increase to 2 degrees C or less. However, the carbon uptake potential in land-based climate change mitigation efforts is highly uncertain. Here, we address this uncertainty by using two land-based mitigation scenarios from two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) as input to four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs; LPJ-GUESS, ORCHIDEE, JULES, LPJmL). Each of the four combinations of land-use models and mitigation scenarios aimed for a cumulative carbon uptake of 130 GtC by the end of the century, achieved either via the cultivation of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or avoided deforestation and afforestation (ADAFF). Results suggest large uncertainty in simulated future land demand and carbon uptake rates, depending on the assumptions related to land use and land management in the models. Total cumulative carbon uptake in the DGVMs is highly variable across mitigation scenarios, ranging between 19 and 130 GtC by year 2099. Only one out of the 16 combinations of mitigation scenarios and DGVMs achieves an equivalent or higher carbon uptake than achieved in the land-use models. The large differences in carbon uptake between the DGVMs and their discrepancy against the carbon uptake in IMAGE and MAgPIE are mainly due to different model assumptions regarding bioenergy crop yields and due to the simulation of soil carbon response to land-use change. Differences between land-use models and DGVMs regarding forest biomass and the rate of forest regrowth also have an impact, albeit smaller, on the results. Given the low confidence in simulated carbon uptake for a given land-based mitigation scenario, and that negative emissions simulated by the DGVMs are typically lower than assumed in scenarios consistent with the 2 degrees C target, relying on negative emissions to mitigate climate change is a highly uncertain strategy. |
英文关键词 | avoided deforestation and afforestation BECCS carbon dioxide removal land-based mitigation negative emissions |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000437281500024 |
WOS关键词 | ENVIRONMENT SIMULATOR JULES ; SOIL CARBON ; MODEL DESCRIPTION ; GLOBAL PATTERNS ; CROP YIELDS ; CO2 REMOVAL ; DYNAMICS ; BIOENERGY ; SYSTEM ; STOCKS |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17070 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res Atmospher Environm Re, Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany; 2.Univ Birmingham, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Birmingham, W Midlands, England; 3.Univ Birmingham, Birmingham Inst Forest Res, Birmingham, W Midlands, England; 4.CNRS, CEA, UVSQ, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Gif Sur Yvette, France; 5.Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Exeter, Devon, England; 6.Mediterranean Inst Biodivers & Ecol IMBE, Inst Mediterraneen Biodivers & Ecol Marine & C, Aix En Provence, France; 7.Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy PBL, Dept Climate Air & Energy, The Hague, Netherlands; 8.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany; 9.Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Catedra CONACyT Comisionado Inst Invest Ecosistem, Mexico City, DF, Mexico; 10.Lund Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Sci, Lund, Sweden |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Krause, Andreas,Pugh, Thomas A. M.,Bayer, Anita D.,et al. Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate-change mitigation efforts[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2018,24(7):3025-3038. |
APA | Krause, Andreas.,Pugh, Thomas A. M..,Bayer, Anita D..,Li, Wei.,Leung, Felix.,...&Arneth, Almut.(2018).Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate-change mitigation efforts.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,24(7),3025-3038. |
MLA | Krause, Andreas,et al."Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate-change mitigation efforts".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 24.7(2018):3025-3038. |
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