Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.14300 |
Annual temperature variation as a time machine to understand the effects of long-term climate change on a poleward range shift | |
Crickenberger, Sam1,2,3; Wethey, David S.1 | |
2018-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 24期号:8页码:3804-3819 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Range shifts due to annual variation in temperature are more tractable than range shifts linked to decadal to century long temperature changes due to climate change, providing natural experiments to determine the mechanisms responsible for driving long-term distributional shifts. In this study we couple physiologically grounded mechanistic models with biogeographic surveys in 2years with high levels of annual temperature variation to disentangle the drivers of a historical range shift driven by climate change. The distribution of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides has shifted 350km poleward in the past half century along the east coast of the United States. Recruits were present throughout the historical range following the 2015 reproductive season, when temperatures were similar to those in the past century, and absent following the 2016 reproductive season when temperatures were warmer than they have been since 1870, the earliest date for temperature records. Our dispersal dependent mechanistic models of reproductive success were highly accurate and predicted patterns of reproduction success documented in field surveys throughout the historical range in 2015 and 2016. Our mechanistic models of reproductive success not only predicted recruitment dynamics near the range edge but also predicted interior range fragmentation in a number of years between 1870 and 2016. All recruits monitored within the historical range following the 2015 colonization died before 2016 suggesting juvenile survival was likely the primary driver of the historical range retraction. However, if 2016 is indicative of future temperatures mechanisms of range limitation will shift and reproductive failure will lead to further range retraction in the future. Mechanistic models are necessary for accurately predicting the effects of climate change on ranges of species. |
英文关键词 | climate change climate variability competency window dispersal interior range fragmentation range shift Semibalanus balanoides |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000437284700042 |
WOS关键词 | BALANUS-BALANOIDES L ; PATELLA-RUSTICA LINNAEUS ; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; SEMIBALANUS-BALANOIDES ; ROCKY SHORE ; ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES ; GEOGRAPHICAL-DISTRIBUTION ; BIOGEOGRAPHIC RESPONSES ; INTERTIDAL ORGANISMS ; SETTLEMENT-PATTERNS |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17041 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ South Carolina, Dept Biol Sci, Columbia, SC 29208 USA; 2.Univ Hong Kong, Swire Inst Marine Sci, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Hong Kong, Sch Biol Sci, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Crickenberger, Sam,Wethey, David S.. Annual temperature variation as a time machine to understand the effects of long-term climate change on a poleward range shift[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2018,24(8):3804-3819. |
APA | Crickenberger, Sam,&Wethey, David S..(2018).Annual temperature variation as a time machine to understand the effects of long-term climate change on a poleward range shift.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,24(8),3804-3819. |
MLA | Crickenberger, Sam,et al."Annual temperature variation as a time machine to understand the effects of long-term climate change on a poleward range shift".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 24.8(2018):3804-3819. |
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