Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.01.060 |
Feed-in tariffs for solar microgeneration: Policy evaluation and capacity projections using a realistic agent-based model | |
Pearce, Phoebe1; Slade, Raphael2 | |
2018-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY |
ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 116页码:95-111 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | Since 2010, over 700,000 small-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) systems have been installed by households in Great Britain and registered under the feed-in tariff (FiT) scheme. This paper introduces a new agent-based model which simulates this adoption by considering decision-making of individual households based on household income, social network, total capital cost of the PV system, and the payback period of the investment, where the final factor takes into account the economic effect of FiTs. After calibration using Approximate Bayesian Computation, the model successfully simulates observed cumulative and average capacity installed over the period 2010-2016 using historically accurate FiTs; setting different tariffs allows investigation of alternative policy scenarios. Model results show that using simple cost control measures, more installation by October 2016 could have been achieved at lower subsidy cost. The total cost of supporting capacity installed during the period 2010-2016, totalling 2.4 GW, is predicted to be (sic)14 billion, and costs to consumers significantly exceed predictions. The model is further used to project capacity installed up to 2022 for several PV cost, electricity price, and FiT policy scenarios, showing that current tariffs are too low to significantly impact adoption, and falling PV costs are the most important driver of installation. |
英文关键词 | Solar photovoltaics Microgeneration Agent-based model Feed-in tariffs Incentive policies |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000430758200011 |
WOS关键词 | ENERGY ; SIMULATION ; DIFFUSION |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/16887 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Imperial Coll London, Dept Phys, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, England; 2.Imperial Coll London, Ctr Environm Policy, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pearce, Phoebe,Slade, Raphael. Feed-in tariffs for solar microgeneration: Policy evaluation and capacity projections using a realistic agent-based model[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2018,116:95-111. |
APA | Pearce, Phoebe,&Slade, Raphael.(2018).Feed-in tariffs for solar microgeneration: Policy evaluation and capacity projections using a realistic agent-based model.ENERGY POLICY,116,95-111. |
MLA | Pearce, Phoebe,et al."Feed-in tariffs for solar microgeneration: Policy evaluation and capacity projections using a realistic agent-based model".ENERGY POLICY 116(2018):95-111. |
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