Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13929 |
Uncertain recovery of the North Atlantic right whale in a changing ocean | |
Meyer-Gutbrod, Erin L.1; Greene, Charles H.2 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 24期号:1页码:455-464 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Human activities have placed populations of many endangered species at risk and mitigation efforts typically focus on reducing anthropogenic sources of mortality. However, failing to recognize the additional role of environmental factors in regulating birth and mortality rates can lead to erroneous demographic analyses and conclusions. The North Atlantic right whale population is currently the focus of conservation efforts aimed at reducing mortality rates associated with ship strikes and entanglement in fishing gear. Consistent monitoring of the population since 1980 has revealed evidence that climate-associated changes in prey availability have played an important role in the population's recovery. The considerable interdecadal differences observed in population growth coincide with remote Arctic and North Atlantic oceanographic processes that link to the Gulf of Maine ecosystem. Here, we build capture-recapture models to quantify the role of prey availability on right whale demographic transitional probabilities and use a corresponding demographic model to project population growth rates into the next century. Contrary to previous predictions, the right whale population is projected to recover in the future as long as prey availability and mortality rates remain within the ranges observed during 1980-2012. However, recent events indicate a northward range shift in right whale prey, potentially resulting in decreased prey availability and/or an expansion of right whale habitat into unprotected waters. An annual increase in the number of whale deaths comparable to that observed during the summer 2017 mass mortality event may cause a decline to extinction even under conditions of normal prey availability. This study highlights the importance of understanding the oceanographic context for observed population changes when evaluating the efficacy of conservation management plans for endangered marine species. |
英文关键词 | capture-recapture conservation demography endangered species Eubalaena glacialis marine ecology population modeling right whale |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000426506100065 |
WOS关键词 | CONTINUOUS PLANKTON RECORDER ; EUBALAENA-GLACIALIS ; REGIME SHIFTS ; CLIMATE ; ENTANGLEMENT ; VARIABILITY ; IMPACTS ; RATES ; RISK ; GULF |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/16847 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Marine Sci Inst, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA; 2.Cornell Univ, Ocean Ecosyst & Resources Program, Earth & Atmospher Sci, Ithaca, NY USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Meyer-Gutbrod, Erin L.,Greene, Charles H.. Uncertain recovery of the North Atlantic right whale in a changing ocean[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2018,24(1):455-464. |
APA | Meyer-Gutbrod, Erin L.,&Greene, Charles H..(2018).Uncertain recovery of the North Atlantic right whale in a changing ocean.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,24(1),455-464. |
MLA | Meyer-Gutbrod, Erin L.,et al."Uncertain recovery of the North Atlantic right whale in a changing ocean".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 24.1(2018):455-464. |
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