Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13538 |
Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins | |
Abadi, Fitsum1,2; Barbraud, Christophe3; Gimenez, Olivier2 | |
2017-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 23期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | South Africa; France |
英文摘要 | Early-life demographic traits are poorly known, impeding our understanding of population processes and sensitivity to climate change. Survival of immature individuals is a critical component of population dynamics and recruitment in particular. However, obtaining reliable estimates of juvenile survival (i.e., from independence to first year) remains challenging, as immatures are often difficult to observe and to monitor individually in the field. This is particularly acute for seabirds, in which juveniles stay at sea and remain undetectable for several years. In this work, we developed a Bayesian integrated population model to estimate the juvenile survival of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri), and other demographic parameters including adult survival and fecundity of the species. Using this statistical method, we simultaneously analyzed capture-recapture data of adults, the annual number of breeding females, and the number of fledglings of emperor penguins collected at Dumont d'Urville, Antarctica, for the period 1971-1998. We also assessed how climate covariates known to affect the species foraging habitats and prey [southern annular mode (SAM), sea ice concentration (SIC)] affect juvenile survival. Our analyses revealed that there was a strong evidence for the positive effect of SAM during the rearing period (SAMR) on juvenile survival. Our findings suggest that this large-scale climate index affects juvenile emperor penguins body condition and survival through its influence on wind patterns, fast ice extent, and distance to open water. Estimating the influence of environmental covariates on juvenile survival is of major importance to understand the impacts of climate variability and change on the population dynamics of emperor penguins and seabirds in general and to make robust predictions on the impact of climate change on marine predators. |
英文关键词 | Bayesian climate change emperor penguins integrated population model sea ice concentration southern annular mode survival |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000396829300031 |
WOS关键词 | ADELIE LAND ; ANTARCTIC OSCILLATION ; POINTE GEOLOGIE ; DYNAMICS ; RESPONSES ; DECLINES ; WEATHER |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/16509 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Witwatersrand, Sch Stat & Actuarial Sci, ZA-2050 Johannesburg, South Africa; 2.Univ Paul Valery Montpellier EPHE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, CEFE,UMR 5175, 1919 Route Mende, F-34293 Montpellier, France; 3.Univ La Rochelle, Ctr Etud Biol Chize, CNRS, UMR7372, Villiers En Bois, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Abadi, Fitsum,Barbraud, Christophe,Gimenez, Olivier. Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2017,23(3). |
APA | Abadi, Fitsum,Barbraud, Christophe,&Gimenez, Olivier.(2017).Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,23(3). |
MLA | Abadi, Fitsum,et al."Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 23.3(2017). |
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