资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Observed reversals in GNSS surface motions suggests greatly enhanced slab pull in the months preceding the great subduction earthquakes in Maule (Chile, 2010) and Tohoku-oki (Japan, 2011) of moment magnitudes 8.8 and 9.0.

Megathrust earthquakes are responsible for some of the most devastating natural disasters(1). To better understand the physical mechanisms of earthquake generation, subduction zones worldwide are continuously monitored with geophysical instrumentation. One key strategy is to install stations that record signals from Global Navigation Satellite Systems(2,3) (GNSS), enabling us to track the non-steady surface motion of the subducting and overriding plates before, during and after the largest events(4-6). Here we use a recently developed trajectory modelling approach(7) that is designed to isolate secular tectonic motions from the daily GNSS time series to show that the 2010 Maule, Chile (moment magnitude 8.8) and 2011 Tohoku-oki, Japan (moment magnitude 9.0) earthquakes were preceded by reversals of 4-8 millimetres in surface displacement that lasted several months and spanned thousands of kilometres. Modelling of the surface displacement reversal that occurred before the Tohoku-oki earthquake suggests an initial slow slip followed by a sudden pulldown of the Philippine Sea slab so rapid that it caused a viscoelastic rebound across the whole of Japan. Therefore, to understand better when large earthquakes are imminent, we must consider not only the evolution of plate interface frictional processes but also the dynamic boundary conditions from deeper subduction processes, such as sudden densification of metastable slab.

Most magmatism occurring on Earth is conventionally attributed to passive mantle upwelling at mid-ocean ridges, to slab devolatilization at subduction zones, or to mantle plumes. However, the widespread Cenozoic intraplate volcanism in northeast China(1-3) and the young petit-spot volcanoes(4-7) offshore of the Japan Trench cannot readily be associated with any of these mechanisms. In addition, the mantle beneath these types of volcanism is characterized by zones of anomalously low seismic velocity above and below the transition zone(8-12) (a mantle level located at depths between 410 and 660 kilometres). A comprehensive interpretation of these phenomena is lacking. Here we show that most (or possibly all) of the intraplate and petit-spot volcanism and low-velocity zones around the Japanese subduction zone can be explained by the Cenozoic interaction of the subducting Pacific slab with a hydrous mantle transition zone. Numerical modelling indicates that 0.2 to 0.3 weight per cent of water dissolved in mantle minerals that are driven out from the transition zone in response to subduction and retreat of a tectonic plate is sufficient to reproduce the observations. This suggests that a critical amount of water may have accumulated in the transition zone around this subduction zone, as well as in others of the Tethyan tectonic belt(13) that are characterized by intraplate or petit-spot volcanism and low-velocity zones in the underlying mantle.