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人为变暖导致北半球积雪减少 快报文章
气候变化快报,2024年第3期
作者:  董利苹
Microsoft Word(14Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:537/0  |  提交时间:2024/02/05
Human Influence  Northern Hemisphere  Snow Loss  Evidence  
研究量化陆地碳汇的强度与驱动因素 快报文章
气候变化快报,2023年第16期
作者:  裴惠娟
Microsoft Word(14Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:523/0  |  提交时间:2023/08/20
Land  Carbon Sink  Evidence and Attribution  
WWF报告揭示森林与人类健康之间的联系 快报文章
资源环境快报,2022年第06期
作者:  裴惠娟
Microsoft Word(32Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:842/0  |  提交时间:2022/03/31
Forests  Human Health  Evidence  
平衡气候敏感度的温度状态依赖性不可忽视 快报文章
气候变化快报,2020年第18期
作者:  董利苹
Microsoft Word(14Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:361/0  |  提交时间:2020/09/20
Eocene  Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity  Proxy Evidence  
The timing and effect of the earliest human arrivals in North America 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020
作者:  Lorena Becerra-Valdivia;  Thomas Higham
收藏  |  浏览/下载:26/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/09

The peopling of the Americas marks a major expansion of humans across the planet. However, questions regarding the timing and mechanisms of this dispersal remain, and the previously accepted model (termed '  Clovis-first'  )-suggesting that the first inhabitants of the Americas were linked with the Clovis tradition, a complex marked by distinctive fluted lithic points(1)-has been effectively refuted. Here we analyse chronometric data from 42 North American and Beringian archaeological sites using a Bayesian age modelling approach, and use the resulting chronological framework to elucidate spatiotemporal patterns of human dispersal. We then integrate these patterns with the available genetic and climatic evidence. The data obtained show that humans were probably present before, during and immediately after the Last Glacial Maximum (about 26.5-19 thousand years ago)(2,3)but that more widespread occupation began during a period of abrupt warming, Greenland Interstadial 1 (about 14.7-12.9 thousand years beforead 2000)(4). We also identify the near-synchronous commencement of Beringian, Clovis and Western Stemmed cultural traditions, and an overlap of each with the last dates for the appearance of 18 now-extinct faunal genera. Our analysis suggests that the widespread expansion of humans through North America was a key factor in the extinction of large terrestrial mammals.


A Bayesian age model suggests that human dispersal to the Americas probably began before the Last Glacial Maximum, overlapping with the last dates of appearance for several faunal genera.


  
Current European flood-rich period exceptional compared with past 500 years 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 583 (7817) : 560-+
作者:  ;  nter Blö;  schl;  Andrea Kiss;  Alberto Viglione;  Mariano Barriendos;  Oliver Bö;  hm;  Rudolf Brá;  zdil;  Denis Coeur;  Gaston Demaré;  e;  Maria Carmen Llasat;  Neil Macdonald;  Dag Retsö;  Lars Roald;  Petra Schmocker-Fackel;  Inê;  s Amorim;  Monika Bě;  ;  nová;  Gerardo Benito;  Chiara Bertolin;  Dario Camuffo;  Daniel Cornel;  Radosł;  aw Doktor;  ;  bor Elleder;  Silvia Enzi;  Joã;  o Carlos Garcia;  ;  diger Glaser;  Julia Hall;  Klaus Haslinger;  Michael Hofstä;  tter;  ;  rgen Komma;  Danuta Limanó;  wka;  David Lun;  Andrei Panin;  Juraj Parajka;  Hrvoje Petrić;  Fernando S. Rodrigo;  Christian Rohr;  Johannes Schö;  nbein;  Lothar Schulte;  Luí;  s Pedro Silva;  Willem H. J. Toonen;  Peter Valent;  ;  rgen Waser;  Oliver Wetter
收藏  |  浏览/下载:40/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/09

There are concerns that recent climate change is altering the frequency and magnitude of river floods in an unprecedented way(1). Historical studies have identified flood-rich periods in the past half millennium in various regions of Europe(2). However, because of the low temporal resolution of existing datasets and the relatively low number of series, it has remained unclear whether Europe is currently in a flood-rich period from a long-term perspective. Here we analyse how recent decades compare with the flood history of Europe, using a new database composed of more than 100 high-resolution (sub-annual) historical flood series based on documentary evidence covering all major regions of Europe. We show that the past three decades were among the most flood-rich periods in Europe in the past 500 years, and that this period differs from other flood-rich periods in terms of its extent, air temperatures and flood seasonality. We identified nine flood-rich periods and associated regions. Among the periods richest in floods are 1560-1580 (western and central Europe), 1760-1800 (most of Europe), 1840-1870 (western and southern Europe) and 1990-2016 (western and central Europe). In most parts of Europe, previous flood-rich periods occurred during cooler-than-usual phases, but the current flood-rich period has been much warmer. Flood seasonality is also more pronounced in the recent period. For example, during previous flood and interflood periods, 41 per cent and 42 per cent of central European floods occurred in summer, respectively, compared with 55 per cent of floods in the recent period. The exceptional nature of the present-day flood-rich period calls for process-based tools for flood-risk assessment that capture the physical mechanisms involved, and management strategies that can incorporate the recent changes in risk.


Analysis of thousands of historical documents recording floods in Europe shows that flooding characteristics in recent decades are unlike those of previous centuries.


  
International evaluation of an AI system for breast cancer screening 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 89-+
作者:  McKinney, Scott Mayer;  Sieniek, Marcin;  Godbole, Varun;  Godwin, Jonathan;  Antropova, Natasha;  Ashrafian, Hutan;  Back, Trevor;  Chesus, Mary;  Corrado, Greg C.;  Darzi, Ara;  Etemadi, Mozziyar;  Garcia-Vicente, Florencia;  Gilbert, Fiona J.;  Halling-Brown, Mark;  Hassabis, Demis;  Jansen, Sunny;  Karthikesalingam, Alan;  Kelly, Christopher J.;  King, Dominic;  Ledsam, Joseph R.;  Melnick, David;  Mostofi, Hormuz;  Peng, Lily;  Reicher, Joshua Jay;  Romera-Paredes, Bernardino;  Sidebottom, Richard;  Suleyman, Mustafa;  Tse, Daniel;  Young, Kenneth C.;  De Fauw, Jeffrey;  Shetty, Shravya
收藏  |  浏览/下载:15/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Screening mammography aims to identify breast cancer at earlier stages of the disease, when treatment can be more successful(1). Despite the existence of screening programmes worldwide, the interpretation of mammograms is affected by high rates of false positives and false negatives(2). Here we present an artificial intelligence (AI) system that is capable of surpassing human experts in breast cancer prediction. To assess its performance in the clinical setting, we curated a large representative dataset from the UK and a large enriched dataset from the USA. We show an absolute reduction of 5.7% and 1.2% (USA and UK) in false positives and 9.4% and 2.7% in false negatives. We provide evidence of the ability of the system to generalize from the UK to the USA. In an independent study of six radiologists, the AI system outperformed all of the human readers: the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) for the AI system was greater than the AUC-ROC for the average radiologist by an absolute margin of 11.5%. We ran a simulation in which the AI system participated in the double-reading process that is used in the UK, and found that the AI system maintained non-inferior performance and reduced the workload of the second reader by 88%. This robust assessment of the AI system paves the way for clinical trials to improve the accuracy and efficiency of breast cancer screening.


  
Synthesis and properties of free-standing monolayer amorphous carbon 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7789) : 199-+
作者:  Toh, Chee-Tat;  Zhang, Hongji;  Lin, Junhao;  Mayorov, Alexander S.;  Wang, Yun-Peng;  Orofeo, Carlo M.;  Ferry, Darim Badur;  Andersen, Henrik;  Kakenov, Nurbek;  Guo, Zenglong;  Abidi, Irfan Haider;  Sims, Hunter;  Suenaga, Kazu;  Pantelides, Sokrates T.;  Ozyilmaz, Barbaros
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Bulk amorphous materials have been studied extensively and are widely used, yet their atomic arrangement remains an open issue. Although they are generally believed to be Zachariasen continuous random networks(1), recent experimental evidence favours the competing crystallite model in the case of amorphous silicon(2-4). In two-dimensional materials, however, the corresponding questions remain unanswered. Here we report the synthesis, by laser-assisted chemical vapour deposition(5), of centimetre-scale, free-standing, continuous and stable monolayer amorphous carbon, topologically distinct from disordered graphene. Unlike in bulk materials, the structure of monolayer amorphous carbon can be determined by atomic-resolution imaging. Extensive characterization by Raman and X-ray spectroscopy and transmission electron microscopy reveals the complete absence of long-range periodicity and a threefold-coordinated structure with a wide distribution of bond lengths, bond angles, and five-, six-, seven- and eight-member rings. The ring distribution is not a Zachariasen continuous random network, but resembles the competing (nano)crystallite model(6). We construct a corresponding model that enables density-functional-theory calculations of the properties of monolayer amorphous carbon, in accordance with observations. Direct measurements confirm that it is insulating, with resistivity values similar to those of boron nitride grown by chemical vapour deposition. Free-standing monolayer amorphous carbon is surprisingly stable and deforms to a high breaking strength, without crack propagation from the point of fracture. The excellent physical properties of this stable, free-standing monolayer amorphous carbon could prove useful for permeation and diffusion barriers in applications such as magnetic recording devices and flexible electronics.


  
Clonally expanded CD8 T cells patrol the cerebrospinal fluid in Alzheimer's disease 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7790) : 399-+
作者:  Gate, David;  Saligrama, Naresha;  Leventhal, Olivia;  Yang, Andrew C.;  Unger, Michael S.;  Middeldorp, Jinte;  Chen, Kelly;  Lehallier, Benoit;  Channappa, Divya;  De Los Santos, Mark B.;  McBride, Alisha;  Pluvinage, John;  Elahi, Fanny;  Tam, Grace Kyin-Ye;  Kim, Yongha;  Greicius, Michael;  Wagner, Anthony D.;  Aigner, Ludwig;  Galasko, Douglas R.;  Davis, Mark M.;  Wyss-Coray, Tony
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Alzheimer'  s disease is an incurable neurodegenerative disorder in which neuroinflammation has a critical function(1). However, little is known about the contribution of the adaptive immune response in Alzheimer'  s disease(2). Here, using integrated analyses of multiple cohorts, we identify peripheral and central adaptive immune changes in Alzheimer'  s disease. First, we performed mass cytometry of peripheral blood mononuclear cells and discovered an immune signature of Alzheimer'  s disease that consists of increased numbers of CD8(+) T effector memory CD45RA(+) (T-EMRA) cells. In a second cohort, we found that CD8(+) T-EMRA cells were negatively associated with cognition. Furthermore, single-cell RNA sequencing revealed that T cell receptor (TCR) signalling was enhanced in these cells. Notably, by using several strategies of single-cell TCR sequencing in a third cohort, we discovered clonally expanded CD8(+) T-EMRA cells in the cerebrospinal fluid of patients with Alzheimer'  s disease. Finally, we used machine learning, cloning and peptide screens to demonstrate the specificity of clonally expanded TCRs in the cerebrospinal fluid of patients with Alzheimer'  s disease to two separate Epstein-Barr virus antigens. These results reveal an adaptive immune response in the blood and cerebrospinal fluid in Alzheimer'  s disease and provide evidence of clonal, antigen-experienced T cells patrolling the intrathecal space of brains affected by age-related neurodegeneration.


  
Poultry through time 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7799) : 351-352
作者:  Cathomas, Flurin;  Russo, Scott J.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

A newly discovered 66.7-million-year-old fossil bird excavated in Belgium provides us with the best evidence so far for understanding when the living groups of birds first evolved and began to diverge.


Fossil sheds light on the evolution of crown-group birds.