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国际研究提出根据排放清单调整气候情景会改变全球基准 快报文章
Authors:  刘淳森 刘莉娜
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Emissions Inventories  Climate Scenario  Global Benchmark  
The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7804) : 496-+
Authors:  Gorgulla, Christoph;  Boeszoermenyi, Andras;  Wang, Zi-Fu;  Fischer, Patrick D.;  Coote, Paul W.;  Padmanabha Das, Krishna M.;  Malets, Yehor S.;  Radchenko, Dmytro S.;  Moroz, Yurii S.;  Scott, David A.;  Fackeldey, Konstantin;  Hoffmann, Moritz;  Iavniuk, Iryna;  Wagner, Gerhard;  Arthanari, Haribabu
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As anthropogenic climate change continues the risks to biodiversity will increase over time, with future projections indicating that a potentially catastrophic loss of global biodiversity is on the horizon(1-3). However, our understanding of when and how abruptly this climate-driven disruption of biodiversity will occur is limited because biodiversity forecasts typically focus on individual snapshots of the future. Here we use annual projections (from 1850 to 2100) of temperature and precipitation across the ranges of more than 30,000 marine and terrestrial species to estimate the timing of their exposure to potentially dangerous climate conditions. We project that future disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt, because within any given ecological assemblage the exposure of most species to climate conditions beyond their realized niche limits occurs almost simultaneously. Under a high-emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5), such abrupt exposure events begin before 2030 in tropical oceans and spread to tropical forests and higher latitudes by 2050. If global warming is kept below 2 degrees C, less than 2% of assemblages globally are projected to undergo abrupt exposure events of more than 20% of their constituent species  however, the risk accelerates with the magnitude of warming, threatening 15% of assemblages at 4 degrees C, with similar levels of risk in protected and unprotected areas. These results highlight the impending risk of sudden and severe biodiversity losses from climate change and provide a framework for predicting both when and where these events may occur.

Using annual projections of temperature and precipitation to estimate when species will be exposed to potentially harmful climate conditions reveals that disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt and could start as early as the current decade.

Greenhouse gas implications of mobilizing agricultural biomass for energy: a reassessment of global potentials in 2050 under different food-system pathways 期刊论文
Authors:  Kalt, Gerald;  Lauk, Christian;  Mayer, Andreas;  Theurl, Michaela C.;  Kaltenegger, Katrin;  Winiwarter, Wilfried;  Erb, Karl-Heinz;  Matej, Sarah;  Haberl, Helmut
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bioenergy  biomass potentials  energy scenario  GHG cost curve  agriculture  energy transition  natural climate solutions  
Growing stocks of buildings, infrastructures and machinery as key challenge for compliance with climate targets 期刊论文
Authors:  Krausmann, Fridolin;  Wiedenhofer, Dominik;  Haberl, Helmut
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Social metabolism  Material and energy flow analysis  Material stocks  Climate-change mitigation  SSP scenario  Low-carbon living  
Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7798) : 233-+
Authors:  Scudellari, Megan
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The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades(1,2), and it is expected to continue to be so(3). Although increases in glacier flow(4-6) and surface melting(7-9) have been driven by oceanic(10-12) and atmospheric(13,14) warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet'  s mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet'  s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 +/- 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 +/- 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 +/- 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 +/- 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 +/- 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 +/- 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 +/- 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 +/- 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions(15) and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbr AE(16). Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario(17), which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.

The regional asymmetric effect of increased daily extreme temperature on the streamflow from a multiscale perspective: A case study of the Yellow River Basin, China 期刊论文
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2019, 228: 137-151
Authors:  Chen, Lei;  Chang, Jianxia;  Wang, Yimin;  Peng, Shaoming;  Li, Yunyun;  Long, Ruihao;  Wang, Yu
Favorite  |  View/Download:7/0  |  Submit date:2019/11/27
Streamflow variation  Daily extreme temperature increase scenario  VIC hydrology model  Spatial and temporal scales  Asymmetric effect  Climate elasticity  
Patch aggregation trends of the global climate landscape under future global warming scenario 期刊论文
Authors:  Lu, Hongwei;  Guan, Yanlong;  He, Li;  Adhikari, Hari;  Pellikka, Petri K. E.;  Heiskanen, Janne;  Maeda, Eduardo
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aggregation  CMIP5  Koppen-Geiger climate classification  landscape  RCP8  5 scenario  
Uncertainty component estimates in transient climate projections Precision of estimators in a single time or time series approach 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 2501-2516
Authors:  Hingray, Benoit;  Blanchet, Juliette;  Evin, Guillaume;  Vidal, Jean-Philippe
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Uncertainty sources  Climate projections  ANOVA  Internal variability  Model uncertainty  Scenario uncertainty  Precision of estimates  
Future evolution of Marine Heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 1371-1392
Authors:  Darmaraki, Sofia;  Somot, Samuel;  Sevault, Florence;  Nabat, Pierre;  Narvaez, William David Cabos;  Cavicchia, Leone;  Djurdjevic, Vladimir;  Li, Laurent;  Sannino, Gianmaria;  Sein, Dmitry V.
Favorite  |  View/Download:10/0  |  Submit date:2019/11/27
Marine Heatwaves  Mediterranean Sea  Coupled regional climate models  Future scenario  Extreme ocean temperatures  Med-CORDEX  Climate change  Climate simulations  
A techno-economic and environmental assessment of long-term energy policies and climate variability impact on the energy system 期刊论文
ENERGY POLICY, 2019, 128: 329-346
Authors:  Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent;  Chaiechi, Taha;  Beg, A. B. M. Rabiul Alam
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Climate variability and change  Australia  LEAP  Energy policies  Emission reduction  Scenario analysis