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The past and future of global river ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 69-+
作者:  Yang, Xiao;  Pavelsky, Tamlin M.;  Allen, George H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：42/0  |  提交时间：2020/05/13

More than one-third of Earth'  s landmass is drained by rivers that seasonally freeze over. Ice transforms the hydrologic(1,2), ecologic(3,4), climatic(5) and socio-economic(6-8) functions of river corridors. Although river ice extent has been shown to be declining in many regions of the world(1), the seasonality, historical change and predicted future changes in river ice extent and duration have not yet been quantified globally. Previous studies of river ice, which suggested that declines in extent and duration could be attributed to warming temperatures(9,10), were based on data from sparse locations. Furthermore, existing projections of future ice extent are based solely on the location of the 0-degrees C isotherm11. Here, using satellite observations, we show that the global extent of river ice is declining, and we project a mean decrease in seasonal ice duration of 6.10 +/- 0.08 days per 1-degrees C increase in global mean surface air temperature. We tracked the extent of river ice using over 400,000 clear-sky Landsat images spanning 1984-2018 and observed a mean decline of 2.5 percentage points globally in the past three decades. To project future changes in river ice extent, we developed an observationally calibrated and validated model, based on temperature and season, which reduced the mean bias by 87 per cent compared with the 0-degree-Celsius isotherm approach. We applied this model to future climate projections for 2080-2100: compared with 2009-2029, the average river ice duration declines by 16.7 days under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, whereas under RCP 4.5 it declines on average by 7.3 days. Our results show that, globally, river ice is measurably declining and will continue to decline linearly with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century.


  
The effect of the equatorial Pacific cold SST bias on simulated ENSO teleconnections to the North Pacific and California 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 3771-3789
作者:  Bayr, Tobias;  Domeisen, Daniela I. V.;  Wengel, Christian
收藏  |  浏览/下载：10/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/27
El Nino/Southern Oscillation  Sea surface temperature bias  North Pacific teleconnections  Rainfall over California  Perturbed physics ensemble  CMIP5  
Systematic Differences in Bucket Sea Surface Temperature Measurements among Nations Identified Using a Linear-Mixed-Effect Method 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2019, 32 (9) : 2569-2589
作者:  Chan, Duo;  Huybers, Peter
收藏  |  浏览/下载：17/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/26
Sea surface temperature  Data mining  Bias  
Quantifying the Clear-Sky Bias of Satellite Land Surface Temperature Using Microwave-Based Estimates 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2019, 124 (2) : 844-857
作者:  Ermida, Sofia L.;  Trigo, Isabel F.;  DaCamara, Carlos C.;  Jimenez, Carlos;  Prigent, Catherine
收藏  |  浏览/下载：9/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
land surface temperature  clear-sky bias  microwave LST  all-weather LST  
Sensitivity of the atmospheric water cycle to corrections of the sea surface temperature bias over southern Africa in a regional climate model 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2018, 51: 2841-2855
作者:  Weber, Torsten;  Haensler, Andreas;  Jacob, Daniela
收藏  |  浏览/下载：11/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
Sea surface temperature bias  Southern Africa  Atmospheric water cycle  Regional climate projections  Okavango River Basin  
Obtaining the correct sea surface temperature: bias correction of regional climate model data for the Mediterranean Sea 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2018, 51 (3) : 1095-1117
作者:  Macias, Diego;  Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa;  Dosio, Alessandro;  Stips, Adolf;  Keuler, Klaus
收藏  |  浏览/下载：12/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
Ocean modelling  Mediterranean Sea  Sea surface temperature  Bias correction  
CAUSES: Diagnosis of the Summertime Warm Bias in CMIP5 Climate Models at the ARM Southern Great Plains Site 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2018, 123 (6) : 2968-2992
作者:  Zhang, Chengzhu;  Xie, Shaocheng;  Klein, Stephen A.;  Ma, Hsi-yen;  Tang, Shuaiqi;  Van Weverberg, Kwinten;  Morcrette, Cyril J.;  Petch, Jon
收藏  |  浏览/下载：18/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
surface temperature bias  CAUSES  ARM  SGP  CMIP5  systematic error  
Correcting urban bias in large-scale temperature records in China, 1980-2009 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2017, 44 (1)
作者:  Wang, J.;  Tett, S. F. B.;  Yan, Z.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：20/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
urban bias  land surface air temperature  China  atmospheric reanalysis