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Extant timetrees are consistent with a myriad of diversification histories 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7804) : 502-+
作者:  Bhaskar, M. K.;  Riedinger, R.;  Machielse, B.;  Levonian, D. S.;  Nguyen, C. T.;  Knall, E. N.;  Park, H.;  Englund, D.;  Loncar, M.;  Sukachev, D. D.;  Lukin, M. D.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：19/0  |  提交时间：2020/07/03

An infinite number of alternative diversification scenarios-which may have markedly different, but equally plausible, dynamics-can underpin a given time-calibrated phylogeny of extant species, suggesting many previous studies have over-interpreted phylogenetic evidence.


Time-calibrated phylogenies of extant species (referred to here as '  extant timetrees'  ) are widely used for estimating diversification dynamics(1). However, there has been considerable debate surrounding the reliability of these inferences(2-5) and, to date, this critical question remains unresolved. Here we clarify the precise information that can be extracted from extant timetrees under the generalized birth-death model, which underlies most existing methods of estimation. We prove that, for any diversification scenario, there exists an infinite number of alternative diversification scenarios that are equally likely to have generated any given extant timetree. These '  congruent'  scenarios cannot possibly be distinguished using extant timetrees alone, even in the presence of infinite data. Importantly, congruent diversification scenarios can exhibit markedly different and yet similarly plausible dynamics, which suggests that many previous studies may have over-interpreted phylogenetic evidence. We introduce identifiable and easily interpretable variables that contain all available information about past diversification dynamics, and demonstrate that these can be estimated from extant timetrees. We suggest that measuring and modelling these identifiable variables offers a more robust way to study historical diversification dynamics. Our findings also make it clear that palaeontological data will continue to be crucial for answering some macroevolutionary questions.


  
Integrating the views and perceptions of UK energy professionals in future energy scenarios to inform policymakers 期刊论文
ENERGY POLICY, 2017, 104
作者:  Parkes, Gareth;  Spataru, Catalina
收藏  |  浏览/下载：0/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
Scenario studies  Perceptions  Energy Barometer  Survey of energy professionals  UK energy policy  
BLOSSOM — Bridging long-term scenario and strategy analysis: organisation and methods 科技报告
来源：European Environment Agency (EEA). 出版年： 2011
作者:  [null]
收藏  |  浏览/下载：5/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/05
long-term perspective  BLOSSOM  scenarios  policy-making  scenario studies  strategy analysis  policy instruments  
Catalogue of scenario studies — Knowledge base for Forward-Looking Information and Services 科技报告
来源：European Environment Agency (EEA). 出版年： 2011
作者:  [null]
收藏  |  浏览/下载：4/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/05
caucasus  eastern europe  global  central asia  flis  scenarios  forward-looking information and services  western balkans  scenario studies  european neighbourhood  
Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Scenarios: a Guidebook for Sub-national Planners 科技报告
来源：World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 出版年： 2010
作者:  United Nations Development Programme
收藏  |  浏览/下载：3/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/05
Climate  Climate change  Vulnerability  Scenario  Impact studies  - International  
Looking back on looking forward: a review of evaluative scenario literature 科技报告
来源：European Environment Agency (EEA). 出版年： 2009
作者:  [null]
收藏  |  浏览/下载：7/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/05
scenario studies  decision-making  policy-making  
Modelling environmental change in Europe: towards a model inventory (SEIS/Forward) 科技报告
来源：European Environment Agency (EEA). 出版年： 2008
作者:  [null]
收藏  |  浏览/下载：3/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/05
SEIS  environmental model inventory  environmental model characterisation  scenario studies  simulation-based models  environmental change models  environmental modelling techniques