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Verification of high resolution (12 km) Global Ensemble Prediction System 期刊论文
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2020, 236
作者:  Mamgain, Ashu;  Sarkar, Abhijit;  Rajagopal, E. N.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：8/0  |  提交时间：2020/07/02
Ensemble Prediction System  Ensemble member  Probabilistic forecasts  Ensemble-spread  Brier score  Reliability diagram  
Extant timetrees are consistent with a myriad of diversification histories 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7804) : 502-+
作者:  Bhaskar, M. K.;  Riedinger, R.;  Machielse, B.;  Levonian, D. S.;  Nguyen, C. T.;  Knall, E. N.;  Park, H.;  Englund, D.;  Loncar, M.;  Sukachev, D. D.;  Lukin, M. D.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：19/0  |  提交时间：2020/07/03

An infinite number of alternative diversification scenarios-which may have markedly different, but equally plausible, dynamics-can underpin a given time-calibrated phylogeny of extant species, suggesting many previous studies have over-interpreted phylogenetic evidence.


Time-calibrated phylogenies of extant species (referred to here as '  extant timetrees'  ) are widely used for estimating diversification dynamics(1). However, there has been considerable debate surrounding the reliability of these inferences(2-5) and, to date, this critical question remains unresolved. Here we clarify the precise information that can be extracted from extant timetrees under the generalized birth-death model, which underlies most existing methods of estimation. We prove that, for any diversification scenario, there exists an infinite number of alternative diversification scenarios that are equally likely to have generated any given extant timetree. These '  congruent'  scenarios cannot possibly be distinguished using extant timetrees alone, even in the presence of infinite data. Importantly, congruent diversification scenarios can exhibit markedly different and yet similarly plausible dynamics, which suggests that many previous studies may have over-interpreted phylogenetic evidence. We introduce identifiable and easily interpretable variables that contain all available information about past diversification dynamics, and demonstrate that these can be estimated from extant timetrees. We suggest that measuring and modelling these identifiable variables offers a more robust way to study historical diversification dynamics. Our findings also make it clear that palaeontological data will continue to be crucial for answering some macroevolutionary questions.


  
Assessment of Risks to Public Water Supply From Low Flows and Harmful Water Quality in a Changing Climate 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2019, 55 (12) : 10386-10404
作者:  Mortazavi-Naeini, Mohammad;  Bussi, Gianbattista;  Elliott, J. Alex;  Hall, Jim W.;  Whitehead, Paul G.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：7/0  |  提交时间：2020/02/16
Water supply  Reliability  water quality  land-use  climate change  
A wholesale electricity market design sans missing money and price manipulation 期刊论文
ENERGY POLICY, 2019, 134
作者:  Woo, C. K.;  Milstein, I.;  Tishler, A.;  Zarnikau, J.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：13/0  |  提交时间：2020/02/17
Electricity market design  Wholesale competition  Reliability differentiation  Tolling agreements  Missing money  Price manipulation  
Assessment of the urban heat island in the city of Tehran using reliability methods 期刊论文
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2019, 225: 144-156
作者:  Jahangir, Mohammad Sina;  Moghim, Sanaz
收藏  |  浏览/下载：8/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/27
Urban Heat Island  Reliability framework  WRF-ARW  Downscaling methods  Bayesian regression  
How detailed value of lost load data impact power system reliability decisions 期刊论文
ENERGY POLICY, 2019, 132: 1064-1075
作者:  Ovaere, Marten;  Heylen, Evelyn;  Proost, Stef;  Deconinck, Geert;  Van Hertem, Dirk
收藏  |  浏览/下载：7/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/27
Value of lost load  Electric power system reliability  Power system management  Interruption costs  Power interruption characteristics  
Bias adjustment and ensemble recalibration methods for seasonal forecasting: a comprehensive intercomparison using the C3S dataset 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 1287-1305
作者:  Manzanas, R.;  Gutierrez, J. M.;  Bhend, J.;  Hemri, S.;  Doblas-Reyes, F. J.;  Torralba, V.;  Penabad, E.;  Brookshaw, A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：8/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/27
Seasonal forecasting  C3S  Bias adjustment  Ensemble recalibration  Forecast quality  Reliability  Ensemble size  Hindcast length  
Does electricity reliability matter? Evidence from rural Viet Nam 期刊论文
ENERGY POLICY, 2019, 131: 399-409
作者:  Duc Anh Dang;  Hai Anh La
收藏  |  浏览/下载：8/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/27
Power reliability  Household welfare  Viet Nam  
Exploratory analysis of high-resolution power interruption data reveals spatial and temporal heterogeneity in electric grid reliability 期刊论文
ENERGY POLICY, 2019, 129: 206-214
作者:  Dunn, Laurel N.;  Sohn, Michael D.;  LaCommare, Kristina Hamachi;  Eto, Joseph H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：7/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/26
Electric power systems  Electric power interruptions  Grid reliability metrics  Big data  Data access  Exploratory data analysis  
Estimation of Average Diffuse Aquifer Recharge Using Time Series Modeling of Groundwater Heads 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2019, 55 (3) : 2194-2210
作者:  Obergfell, Christophe;  Bakker, Mark;  Maas, Kees
收藏  |  浏览/下载：7/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/26
aquifer recharge  time series analysis  models reliability