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国际研究称全球河流碳输出被低估2.4亿吨 快报文章
气候变化快报，2024年第19期
作者:  董利苹
Microsoft Word(16Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载：468/0  |  提交时间：2024/10/05
Global Riverine  Carbon Export  Observations and Multi-Model Assessment  
温度升高2 ℃将导致全球森林死亡率提高22% 快报文章
资源环境快报，2022年第07期
作者:  董利苹
Microsoft Word(23Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载：733/0  |  提交时间：2022/04/15
Global Field Observations  Tree Die-Off  Forest  Hotter-Drought Fingerprint  
联合国发布报告分析回顾新冠肺炎疫情爆发以来地球系统观测状况 快报文章
地球科学快报，2020年第18期
作者:  张树良
Microsoft Word(17Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载：503/1  |  提交时间：2020/09/24
Earth System Observations  Global Ocean Observing System  land-based observations  
Impact of Higher Spatial Atmospheric Resolution on Precipitation Extremes Over Land in Global Climate Models 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2020, 125 (13)
作者:  Bador, Margot;  Boe, Julien;  Terray, Laurent;  Alexander, Lisa, V;  Baker, Alexander;  Bellucci, Alessio;  Haarsma, Rein;  Koenigk, Torben;  Moine, Marie-Pierre;  Lohmann, Katja;  Putrasahan, Dian A.;  Roberts, Chris;  Roberts, Malcolm;  Scoccimarro, Enrico;  Schiemann, Reinhard;  Seddon, Jon;  Senan, Retish;  Valcke, Sophie;  Vanniere, Benoit
收藏  |  浏览/下载：43/0  |  提交时间：2020/08/18
precipitation extremes  multimodel and multiproduct of observations framework  performance of the models  global climate models for CMIP6 and HighResMIP  sensitivity to atmospheric spatial resolution  
Intercomparison of annual precipitation indices and extremes over global land areas from in situ, space-based and reanalysis products 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (5)
作者:  Alexander, Lisa, V;  Bador, Margot;  Roca, Remy;  Contractor, Steefan;  Donat, Markus G.;  Nguyen, Phuong Loan
收藏  |  浏览/下载：21/0  |  提交时间：2020/07/02
global observations  guage-based  satellite  reanalyses  precipitation  intercomparison  
Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7797) : 80-+
作者:  Wannes Hubau;  Simon L. Lewis;  Oliver L. Phillips;  Kofi Affum-Baffoe;  Hans Beeckman;  Aida Cuní;  -Sanchez;  Armandu K. Daniels;  Corneille E. N. Ewango;  Sophie Fauset;  Jacques M. Mukinzi;  Douglas Sheil;  Bonaventure Sonké;  Martin J. P. Sullivan;  Terry C. H. Sunderland;  Hermann Taedoumg;  Sean C. Thomas;  Lee J. T. White;  Katharine A. Abernethy;  Stephen Adu-Bredu;  Christian A. Amani;  Timothy R. Baker;  Lindsay F. Banin;  Fidè;  le Baya;  Serge K. Begne;  Amy C. Bennett;  Fabrice Benedet;  Robert Bitariho;  Yannick E. Bocko;  Pascal Boeckx;  Patrick Boundja;  Roel J. W. Brienen;  Terry Brncic;  Eric Chezeaux;  George B. Chuyong;  Connie J. Clark;  Murray Collins;  James A. Comiskey;  David A. Coomes;  Greta C. Dargie;  Thales de Haulleville;  Marie Noel Djuikouo Kamdem;  Jean-Louis Doucet;  Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert;  Ted R. Feldpausch;  Alusine Fofanah;  Ernest G. Foli;  Martin Gilpin;  Emanuel Gloor;  Christelle Gonmadje;  Sylvie Gourlet-Fleury;  Jefferson S. Hall;  Alan C. Hamilton;  David J. Harris;  Terese B. Hart;  Mireille B. N. Hockemba;  Annette Hladik;  Suspense A. Ifo;  Kathryn J. Jeffery;  Tommaso Jucker;  Emmanuel Kasongo Yakusu;  Elizabeth Kearsley;  David Kenfack;  Alexander Koch;  Miguel E. Leal;  Aurora Levesley;  Jeremy A. Lindsell;  Janvier Lisingo;  Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez;  Jon C. Lovett;  Jean-Remy Makana;  Yadvinder Malhi;  Andrew R. Marshall;  Jim Martin;  Emanuel H. Martin;  Faustin M. Mbayu;  Vincent P. Medjibe;  Vianet Mihindou;  Edward T. A. Mitchard;  Sam Moore;  Pantaleo K. T. Munishi;  Natacha Nssi Bengone;  Lucas Ojo;  Fidè;  le Evouna Ondo;  Kelvin S.-H. Peh;  Georgia C. Pickavance;  Axel Dalberg Poulsen;  John R. Poulsen;  Lan Qie;  Jan Reitsma;  Francesco Rovero;  Michael D. Swaine;  Joey Talbot;  James Taplin;  David M. Taylor;  Duncan W. Thomas;  Benjamin Toirambe;  John Tshibamba Mukendi;  Darlington Tuagben;  Peter M. Umunay;  Geertje M. F. van der Heijden;  Hans Verbeeck;  Jason Vleminckx;  Simon Willcock;  Hannsjö;  rg Wö;  ll;  John T. Woods;  Lise Zemagho
收藏  |  浏览/下载：73/0  |  提交时间：2020/05/13

Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered about half of the global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing about 15 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions(1-3). Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this tropical forest '  carbon sink'  will continue for decades(4,5). Here we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year (95 per cent confidence interval 0.53-0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests(6). Therefore the carbon sink responses of Earth'  s two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected net effect of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperature(7-9). Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our most intensively monitored plots suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including carbon dioxide, temperature, drought and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, whereas the Amazonian sink continues to weaken rapidly. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth'  s intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, independent observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern Hemisphere landmass(10) reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already peaked. This saturation and ongoing decline of the tropical forest carbon sink has consequences for policies intended to stabilize Earth'  s climate.


  
Diverse estimates of annual maxima daily precipitation in 22 state-of-the-art quasi-global land observation datasets 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (3)
作者:  Bador, Margot;  Alexander, Lisa V.;  Contractor, Steefan;  Roca, Remy
收藏  |  浏览/下载：16/0  |  提交时间：2020/07/02
intercomparison of observational products  global distribution of precipitation extremes  annual extremes of daily precipitation  in situ and satellite precipitation observations  
Early climate models successfully predicted global warming 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 578 (7793) : 45-46
作者:  Bertolucci, Sergio;  Mulargia, Francesco;  Giardini, Domenico
收藏  |  浏览/下载：19/0  |  提交时间：2020/07/03

An evaluation of past climate-model forecasts.


Climate models published between 1970 and 2007 provided accurate forecasts of subsequently observed global surface warming. This finding shows the value of using global observations to vet climate models as the planet warms.


  
The past and future of global river ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 69-+
作者:  Yang, Xiao;  Pavelsky, Tamlin M.;  Allen, George H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：43/0  |  提交时间：2020/05/13

More than one-third of Earth'  s landmass is drained by rivers that seasonally freeze over. Ice transforms the hydrologic(1,2), ecologic(3,4), climatic(5) and socio-economic(6-8) functions of river corridors. Although river ice extent has been shown to be declining in many regions of the world(1), the seasonality, historical change and predicted future changes in river ice extent and duration have not yet been quantified globally. Previous studies of river ice, which suggested that declines in extent and duration could be attributed to warming temperatures(9,10), were based on data from sparse locations. Furthermore, existing projections of future ice extent are based solely on the location of the 0-degrees C isotherm11. Here, using satellite observations, we show that the global extent of river ice is declining, and we project a mean decrease in seasonal ice duration of 6.10 +/- 0.08 days per 1-degrees C increase in global mean surface air temperature. We tracked the extent of river ice using over 400,000 clear-sky Landsat images spanning 1984-2018 and observed a mean decline of 2.5 percentage points globally in the past three decades. To project future changes in river ice extent, we developed an observationally calibrated and validated model, based on temperature and season, which reduced the mean bias by 87 per cent compared with the 0-degree-Celsius isotherm approach. We applied this model to future climate projections for 2080-2100: compared with 2009-2029, the average river ice duration declines by 16.7 days under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, whereas under RCP 4.5 it declines on average by 7.3 days. Our results show that, globally, river ice is measurably declining and will continue to decline linearly with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century.


  
Global land surface air temperature dynamics since 1880 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2018, 38: E466-E474
作者:  Wang, Jinfeng;  Xu, Chengdong;  Hu, Maogui;  Li, Qingxiang;  Yan, Zhongwei;  Jones, Phil
收藏  |  浏览/下载：21/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
global  land surface air temperature dynamics  biased observations  best linear unbiased estimate (BLUE)