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世界气象组织发布《2022年全球气候状况临时报告》 快报文章
气候变化快报,2022年第22期
作者:  迪里努尔 刘燕飞
Microsoft Word(14Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:641/0  |  提交时间:2022/11/20
Global mean temperature  La Niña  Weather and climate extremes  heatwaves  cyclones  
全球变暖已达到至少6000年未见的水平 快报文章
气候变化快报,2020年第14期
作者:  董利苹
Microsoft Word(13Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:369/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/20
Holocene  Global Mean Surface Temperature  Multi-method Reconstruction Approach  
Oceanic forcing of penultimate deglacial and last interglacial sea-level rise 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7792) : 660-+
作者:  Rizal, Yan;  Westaway, Kira E.;  Zaim, Yahdi;  van den Bergh, Gerrit D.;  Bettis, E. Arthur, III;  Morwood, Michael J.;  Huffman, O. Frank;  Grun, Rainer;  Joannes-Boyau, Renaud;  Bailey, Richard M.;  Sidarto;  Westaway, Michael C.;  Kurniawan, Iwan;  Moore, Mark W.;  Storey, Michael;  Aziz, Fachroel;  Suminto;  Zhao, Jian-xin;  Aswan;  Sipola, Maija E.;  Larick, Roy;  Zonneveld, John-Paul;  Scott, Robert;  Putt, Shelby;  Ciochon, Russell L.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:22/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

Sea-level histories during the two most recent deglacial-interglacial intervals show substantial differences(1-3) despite both periods undergoing similar changes in global mean temperature(4,5) and forcing from greenhouse gases(6). Although the last interglaciation (LIG) experienced stronger boreal summer insolation forcing than the present interglaciation(7), understanding why LIG global mean sea level may have been six to nine metres higher than today has proven particularly challenging(2). Extensive areas of polar ice sheets were grounded below sea level during both glacial and interglacial periods, with grounding lines and fringing ice shelves extending onto continental shelves(8). This suggests that oceanic forcing by subsurface warming may also have contributed to ice-sheet loss(9-12) analogous to ongoing changes in the Antarctic(13,14) and Greenland(15) ice sheets. Such forcing would have been especially effective during glacial periods, when the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) experienced large variations on millennial timescales(16), with a reduction of the AMOC causing subsurface warming throughout much of the Atlantic basin(9,12,17). Here we show that greater subsurface warming induced by the longer period of reduced AMOC during the penultimate deglaciation can explain the more-rapid sea-level rise compared with the last deglaciation. This greater forcing also contributed to excess loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets during the LIG, causing global mean sea level to rise at least four metres above modern levels. When accounting for the combined influences of penultimate and LIG deglaciation on glacial isostatic adjustment, this excess loss of polar ice during the LIG can explain much of the relative sea level recorded by fossil coral reefs and speleothems at intermediate- and far-field sites.


  
The past and future of global river ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 69-+
作者:  Yang, Xiao;  Pavelsky, Tamlin M.;  Allen, George H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

More than one-third of Earth'  s landmass is drained by rivers that seasonally freeze over. Ice transforms the hydrologic(1,2), ecologic(3,4), climatic(5) and socio-economic(6-8) functions of river corridors. Although river ice extent has been shown to be declining in many regions of the world(1), the seasonality, historical change and predicted future changes in river ice extent and duration have not yet been quantified globally. Previous studies of river ice, which suggested that declines in extent and duration could be attributed to warming temperatures(9,10), were based on data from sparse locations. Furthermore, existing projections of future ice extent are based solely on the location of the 0-degrees C isotherm11. Here, using satellite observations, we show that the global extent of river ice is declining, and we project a mean decrease in seasonal ice duration of 6.10 +/- 0.08 days per 1-degrees C increase in global mean surface air temperature. We tracked the extent of river ice using over 400,000 clear-sky Landsat images spanning 1984-2018 and observed a mean decline of 2.5 percentage points globally in the past three decades. To project future changes in river ice extent, we developed an observationally calibrated and validated model, based on temperature and season, which reduced the mean bias by 87 per cent compared with the 0-degree-Celsius isotherm approach. We applied this model to future climate projections for 2080-2100: compared with 2009-2029, the average river ice duration declines by 16.7 days under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, whereas under RCP 4.5 it declines on average by 7.3 days. Our results show that, globally, river ice is measurably declining and will continue to decline linearly with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century.


  
Changes in daily temperature extremes relative to the mean in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models and observations 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019, 39 (14) : 5273-5291
作者:  Gross, Mia H.;  Donat, Markus G.;  Alexander, Lisa V.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
cold extremes  global  HadGHCND  hot extremes  mean temperature  temperature distribution  
How likely is an El Nino to break the global mean surface temperature record during the 21st century? 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019, 14 (9)
作者:  Hsu, Chia-Wei;  Yin, Jianjun
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
CMIP5  global mean surface temperature  El Nino  record-breaking  
Global-mean surface temperature variability: space-time perspective from rotated EOFs 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2018, 51: 1719-1732
作者:  Chen, Xianyao;  Tung, Ka-Kit
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
PDO  IPO  ENSO  AMO  Rotated EOF  Global-mean temperature variability  
Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees C global warming above the pre-industrial level 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2018, 38 (8) : 3355-3368
作者:  Montroull, Natalia B.;  Saurral, Ramiro I.;  Camilloni, Ines A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
global mean temperature target  hydrology  La Plata basin  regional hydrology impact  
Nonlinearity of Runoff Response to Global Mean Temperature Change Over Major Global River Basins 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2018, 45 (12) : 6109-6116
作者:  Zhang, Xuejun;  Tang, Qiuhong;  Liu, Xingcai;  Leng, Guoyong;  Di, Chongli
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
nonlinear response  river basins  global mean temperature change  CMIP5 climate models  
Global mean temperature indicators linked to warming levels avoiding climate risks 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2018, 13 (6)
作者:  Pfleiderer, Peter;  Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich;  Mengel, Matthias;  Rogelj, Joeri
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Paris Agreement  1.5 degrees C  global mean temperature