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The past and future of global river ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 69-+
作者:  Yang, Xiao;  Pavelsky, Tamlin M.;  Allen, George H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

More than one-third of Earth'  s landmass is drained by rivers that seasonally freeze over. Ice transforms the hydrologic(1,2), ecologic(3,4), climatic(5) and socio-economic(6-8) functions of river corridors. Although river ice extent has been shown to be declining in many regions of the world(1), the seasonality, historical change and predicted future changes in river ice extent and duration have not yet been quantified globally. Previous studies of river ice, which suggested that declines in extent and duration could be attributed to warming temperatures(9,10), were based on data from sparse locations. Furthermore, existing projections of future ice extent are based solely on the location of the 0-degrees C isotherm11. Here, using satellite observations, we show that the global extent of river ice is declining, and we project a mean decrease in seasonal ice duration of 6.10 +/- 0.08 days per 1-degrees C increase in global mean surface air temperature. We tracked the extent of river ice using over 400,000 clear-sky Landsat images spanning 1984-2018 and observed a mean decline of 2.5 percentage points globally in the past three decades. To project future changes in river ice extent, we developed an observationally calibrated and validated model, based on temperature and season, which reduced the mean bias by 87 per cent compared with the 0-degree-Celsius isotherm approach. We applied this model to future climate projections for 2080-2100: compared with 2009-2029, the average river ice duration declines by 16.7 days under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, whereas under RCP 4.5 it declines on average by 7.3 days. Our results show that, globally, river ice is measurably declining and will continue to decline linearly with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century.


  
Importance and vulnerability of the world's water towers 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7790) : 364-+
作者:  Krebs, John R.;  Hassell, Michael
收藏  |  浏览/下载:49/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

Mountains are the water towers of the world, supplying a substantial part of both natural and anthropogenic water demands(1,2). They are highly sensitive and prone to climate change(3,4), yet their importance and vulnerability have not been quantified at the global scale. Here we present a global water tower index (WTI), which ranks all water towers in terms of their water-supplying role and the downstream dependence of ecosystems and society. For each water tower, we assess its vulnerability related to water stress, governance, hydropolitical tension and future climatic and socioeconomic changes. We conclude that the most important (highest WTI) water towers are also among the most vulnerable, and that climatic and socio-economic changes will affect them profoundly. This could negatively impact 1.9 billion people living in (0.3 billion) or directly downstream of (1.6 billion) mountainous areas. Immediate action is required to safeguard the future of the world'  s most important and vulnerable water towers.


  
The link between smallholders' perception of climatic changes and adaptation in Tanzania 期刊论文
CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2019, 157 (3-4) : 545-563
作者:  Brussow, Kathleen;  Gornott, Christoph;  Fasse, Anja;  Grote, Ulrike
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Climatic changes  Adaptation  Tanzania  
New diseases due to indigenous fungi in a changing world: The case of hop hornbeam canker in the Italian Alps 期刊论文
FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT, 2019, 439: 159-170
作者:  Scala, E.;  Micheli, M.;  Ferretti, F.;  Maresi, G.;  Zottele, F.;  Piskur, B.;  Scattolin, L.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/26
Ostrya carpinifolia  Endophytes  Botryosphaeria dothidea  Dothiorella parva  Climatic changes  Forest management  
Dryland belt of Northern Eurasia: contemporary environmental changes and their consequences 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2018, 13 (11)
作者:  Groisman, Pavel;  Bulygina, Olga;  Henebry, Geoffrey;  Speranskaya, Nina;  Shiklomanov, Alexander;  Chen, Yizhao;  Tchebakova, Nadezhda;  Parfenova, Elena;  Tilinina, Natalia;  Zolina, Olga;  Dufour, Ambroise;  Chen, Jiquan;  John, Ranjeet;  Fan, Peilei;  Mayas, Csaba;  Yesserkepova, Irina;  Kaipov, Ildan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Northern Eurasia  climatic and environmental changes  impact and feedbacks of human activity on environment  
Glacier mass budget and climate reanalysis data indicate a climatic shift around 2000 in Lahaul-Spiti, western Himalaya 期刊论文
CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2018, 148: 219-233
作者:  Mukherjee, Kriti;  Bhattacharya, Atanu;  Pieczonka, Tino;  Ghosh, Susmita;  Bolch, Tobias
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Lahaul-Spiti  Indian Himalaya  US spy satellite image  Glacier changes  Geodetic mass balance  Climate reanalysis data  Climatic trend  
With or without you: Effects of the concurrent range expansion of an herbivore and its natural enemy on native species interactions 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2018, 24 (2) : 631-643
作者:  Carrasco, David;  Desurmont, Gaylord A.;  Laplanche, Diane;  Proffit, Magali;  Gols, Rieta;  Becher, Paul G.;  Larsson, Mattias C.;  Turlings, Ted C. J.;  Anderson, Peter
收藏  |  浏览/下载:17/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
climatic changes  herbivore competition  invasion ecology  Mamestra brassicae  multitrophic interactions  olfactory preferences  parasitoid competition  Spodoptera littoralis  
Hydrologic impacts of changes in climate and glacier extent in the Gulf of Alaska watershed 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2017, 53 (9)
作者:  Beamer, J. P.;  Hill, D. F.;  McGrath, D.;  Arendt, A.;  Kienholz, C.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:4/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Gulf of Alaska  climatic changes  hydrologic models  hydrologic cycle  cryosphere  
Simulation and projection of climatic changes in the Indus River Basin, using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2017, 37 (5)
作者:  Huang, Jinlong;  Wang, Yanjun;  Fischer, Thomas;  Su, Buda;  Li, Xiucang;  Jiang, Tong
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
climatic changes  simulation  projection  CCLM  Indus River Basin  
Stability in a changing world - palm community dynamics in the hyperdiverse western Amazon over 17 years 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2017, 23 (3)
作者:  Olivares, Ingrid;  Svenning, Jens-Christian;  van Bodegom, Peter M.;  Valencia, Renato;  Balslev, Henrik
收藏  |  浏览/下载:12/0  |  提交时间:2019/04/09
Arecaceae  biodiversity  climate change  climatic records  community ecology  directional changes  forest dynamics  forest monitoring  global change  Yasuni National Park