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新的地震概率模型可预测地震历史 快报文章
地球科学快报,2023年第2期
作者:  王晓晨
Microsoft Word(13Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:570/0  |  提交时间:2023/01/27
Earthquake history  Earthquake probability model  
Probability values for the intensity of Barcelona's urban heat island (Spain) 期刊论文
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2020, 240
作者:  Martin-Vide, Javier;  Carmen Moreno-Garcia, M.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/18
Barcelona  Probability  Seasonality  Urban heat island intensity  
Adaptation time to magnified flood hazards underestimated when derived from tide gauge records 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (7)
作者:  Lambert, Erwin;  Rohmer, Jeremy;  Le Cozannet, Goneri;  van de Wal, Roderik S. W.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/18
Sea-level rise  extreme water level  waves  coastal adaptation  joint probability  
Rapid growth of new atmospheric particles by nitric acid and ammonia condensation 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 581 (7807) : 184-+
作者:  Liang, Guanxiang;  Zhao, Chunyu;  Zhang, Huanjia;  Mattei, Lisa;  Sherrill-Mix, Scott;  Bittinger, Kyle;  Kessler, Lyanna R.;  Wu, Gary D.;  Baldassano, Robert N.;  DeRusso, Patricia;  Ford, Eileen;  Elovitz, Michal A.;  Kelly, Matthew S.;  Patel, Mohamed Z.;  Mazhani, Tiny;  Gerber, Jeffrey S.;  Kelly, Andrea;  Zemel, Babette S.;  Bushman, Frederic D.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:17/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/20

A list of authors and their affiliations appears at the end of the paper New-particle formation is a major contributor to urban smog(1,2), but how it occurs in cities is often puzzling(3). If the growth rates of urban particles are similar to those found in cleaner environments (1-10 nanometres per hour), then existing understanding suggests that new urban particles should be rapidly scavenged by the high concentration of pre-existing particles. Here we show, through experiments performed under atmospheric conditions in the CLOUD chamber at CERN, that below about +5 degrees Celsius, nitric acid and ammonia vapours can condense onto freshly nucleated particles as small as a few nanometres in diameter. Moreover, when it is cold enough (below -15 degrees Celsius), nitric acid and ammonia can nucleate directly through an acid-base stabilization mechanism to form ammonium nitrate particles. Given that these vapours are often one thousand times more abundant than sulfuric acid, the resulting particle growth rates can be extremely high, reaching well above 100 nanometres per hour. However, these high growth rates require the gas-particle ammonium nitrate system to be out of equilibrium in order to sustain gas-phase supersaturations. In view of the strong temperature dependence that we measure for the gas-phase supersaturations, we expect such transient conditions to occur in inhomogeneous urban settings, especially in wintertime, driven by vertical mixing and by strong local sources such as traffic. Even though rapid growth from nitric acid and ammonia condensation may last for only a few minutes, it is nonetheless fast enough to shepherd freshly nucleated particles through the smallest size range where they are most vulnerable to scavenging loss, thus greatly increasing their survival probability. We also expect nitric acid and ammonia nucleation and rapid growth to be important in the relatively clean and cold upper free troposphere, where ammonia can be convected from the continental boundary layer and nitric acid is abundant from electrical storms(4,5).


  
How Does Hurricane Edouard (2014) Evolve toward Symmetry before Rapid Intensification? A High-Resolution Ensemble Study 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2020, 77 (4) : 1329-1351
作者:  Alvey, George R., III;  Zipser, Ed;  Zawislak, Jonathan
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
Deep convection  Tropical cyclones  Ensembles  Probability forecasts  models  distribution  
A lower X-gate in TASK channels traps inhibitors within the vestibule 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020
作者:  Chen, Tao;  Nomura, Kinya;  Wang, Xiaolin;  Sohrabi, Reza;  Xu, Jin;  Yao, Lingya;  Paasch, Bradley C.;  Ma, Li;  Kremer, James;  Cheng, Yuti;  Zhang, Li;  Wang, Nian;  Wang, Ertao;  Xin, Xiu-Fang;  He, Sheng Yang
收藏  |  浏览/下载:32/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

TWIK-related acid-sensitive potassium (TASK) channels-members of the two pore domain potassium (K-2P) channel family-are found in neurons(1), cardiomyocytes(2-4) and vascular smooth muscle cells(5), where they are involved in the regulation of heart rate(6), pulmonary artery tone(5,7), sleep/wake cycles(8) and responses to volatile anaesthetics(8-11). K-2P channels regulate the resting membrane potential, providing background K+ currents controlled by numerous physiological stimuli(12-15). Unlike other K-2P channels, TASK channels are able to bind inhibitors with high affinity, exceptional selectivity and very slow compound washout rates. As such, these channels are attractive drug targets, and TASK-1 inhibitors are currently in clinical trials for obstructive sleep apnoea and atrial fibrillation(16). In general, potassium channels have an intramembrane vestibule with a selectivity filter situated above and a gate with four parallel helices located below  however, the K-2P channels studied so far all lack a lower gate. Here we present the X-ray crystal structure of TASK-1, and show that it contains a lower gate-which we designate as an '  X-gate'  -created by interaction of the two crossed C-terminal M4 transmembrane helices at the vestibule entrance. This structure is formed by six residues ((VLRFMT248)-V-243) that are essential for responses to volatile anaesthetics(10), neurotransmitters(13) and G-protein-coupled receptors(13). Mutations within the X-gate and the surrounding regions markedly affect both the channel-open probability and the activation of the channel by anaesthetics. Structures of TASK-1 bound to two high-affinity inhibitors show that both compounds bind below the selectivity filter and are trapped in the vestibule by the X-gate, which explains their exceptionally low washout rates. The presence of the X-gate in TASK channels explains many aspects of their physiological and pharmacological behaviour, which will be beneficial for the future development and optimization of TASK modulators for the treatment of heart, lung and sleep disorders.


The X-ray crystal structure of the potassium channel TASK-1 reveals the presence of an X-gate, which traps small-molecule inhibitors in the intramembrane vestibule and explains their low washout rates from the channel.


  
Backward Probability Model for Identifying Multiple Contaminant Source Zones Under Transient Variably Saturated Flow Conditions 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2020, 56 (4)
作者:  Hwang, Hyoun-Tae;  Jeen, Sung-Wook;  Kaown, Dugin;  Lee, Seong-Sun;  Sudicky, Edward A.;  Steinmoeller, Derek T.;  Lee, Kang-Kun
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
backward probability model  source zone identifications  transient flow  vadose zone  uncertainty analysis  HydroGeoSphere  
Precipitation Probability and Its Future Changes From a Global Cloud-Resolving Model and CMIP6 Simulations 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2020, 125 (5)
作者:  Na, Ying;  Fu, Qiang;  Kodama, Chihiro
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
precipitation probability  climate change  cloud-resolving model  
A distributional code for value in dopamine-based reinforcement learning 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7792) : 671-+
作者:  House, Robert A.;  Maitra, Urmimala;  Perez-Osorio, Miguel A.;  Lozano, Juan G.;  Jin, Liyu;  Somerville, James W.;  Duda, Laurent C.;  Nag, Abhishek;  Walters, Andrew;  Zhou, Ke-Jin;  Roberts, Matthew R.;  Bruce, Peter G.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:61/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Since its introduction, the reward prediction error theory of dopamine has explained a wealth of empirical phenomena, providing a unifying framework for understanding the representation of reward and value in the brain(1-3). According to the now canonical theory, reward predictions are represented as a single scalar quantity, which supports learning about the expectation, or mean, of stochastic outcomes. Here we propose an account of dopamine-based reinforcement learning inspired by recent artificial intelligence research on distributional reinforcement learning(4-6). We hypothesized that the brain represents possible future rewards not as a single mean, but instead as a probability distribution, effectively representing multiple future outcomes simultaneously and in parallel. This idea implies a set of empirical predictions, which we tested using single-unit recordings from mouse ventral tegmental area. Our findings provide strong evidence for a neural realization of distributional reinforcement learning.


Analyses of single-cell recordings from mouse ventral tegmental area are consistent with a model of reinforcement learning in which the brain represents possible future rewards not as a single mean of stochastic outcomes, as in the canonical model, but instead as a probability distribution.


  
Constraint on the matter-antimatter symmetry-violating phase in neutrino oscillations 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7803) : 339-+
作者:  Houben, Lothar;  Weissman, Haim;  Wolf, Sharon G.;  Rybtchinski, Boris
收藏  |  浏览/下载:16/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

The charge-conjugation and parity-reversal (CP) symmetry of fundamental particles is a symmetry between matter and antimatter. Violation of this CP symmetry was first observed in 1964(1), and CP violation in the weak interactions of quarks was soon established(2). Sakharov proposed(3) that CP violation is necessary to explain the observed imbalance of matter and antimatter abundance in the Universe. However, CP violation in quarks is too small to support this explanation. So far, CP violation has not been observed in non-quark elementary particle systems. It has been shown that CP violation in leptons could generate the matter-antimatter disparity through a process called leptogenesis(4). Leptonic mixing, which appears in the standard model'  s charged current interactions(5,6), provides a potential source of CP violation through a complex phase dCP, which is required by some theoretical models of leptogenesis(7-9). This CP violation can be measured in muon neutrino to electron neutrino oscillations and the corresponding antineutrino oscillations, which are experimentally accessible using accelerator-produced beams as established by the Tokai-to-Kamioka (T2K) and NOvA experiments(10,11). Until now, the value of dCP has not been substantially constrained by neutrino oscillation experiments. Here we report a measurement using long-baseline neutrino and antineutrino oscillations observed by the T2K experiment that shows a large increase in the neutrino oscillation probability, excluding values of dCP that result in a large increase in the observed antineutrino oscillation probability at three standard deviations (3 sigma). The 3 sigma confidence interval for delta(CP), which is cyclic and repeats every 2p, is [-3.41, -0.03] for the so-called normal mass ordering and [-2.54, -0.32] for the inverted mass ordering. Our results indicate CP violation in leptons and our method enables sensitive searches for matter-antimatter asymmetry in neutrino oscillations using accelerator-produced neutrino beams. Future measurements with larger datasets will test whether leptonic CP violation is larger than the CP violation in quarks.