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The past and future of global river ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 69-+
作者:  Yang, Xiao;  Pavelsky, Tamlin M.;  Allen, George H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：7/0  |  提交时间：2020/05/13

More than one-third of Earth'  s landmass is drained by rivers that seasonally freeze over. Ice transforms the hydrologic(1,2), ecologic(3,4), climatic(5) and socio-economic(6-8) functions of river corridors. Although river ice extent has been shown to be declining in many regions of the world(1), the seasonality, historical change and predicted future changes in river ice extent and duration have not yet been quantified globally. Previous studies of river ice, which suggested that declines in extent and duration could be attributed to warming temperatures(9,10), were based on data from sparse locations. Furthermore, existing projections of future ice extent are based solely on the location of the 0-degrees C isotherm11. Here, using satellite observations, we show that the global extent of river ice is declining, and we project a mean decrease in seasonal ice duration of 6.10 +/- 0.08 days per 1-degrees C increase in global mean surface air temperature. We tracked the extent of river ice using over 400,000 clear-sky Landsat images spanning 1984-2018 and observed a mean decline of 2.5 percentage points globally in the past three decades. To project future changes in river ice extent, we developed an observationally calibrated and validated model, based on temperature and season, which reduced the mean bias by 87 per cent compared with the 0-degree-Celsius isotherm approach. We applied this model to future climate projections for 2080-2100: compared with 2009-2029, the average river ice duration declines by 16.7 days under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, whereas under RCP 4.5 it declines on average by 7.3 days. Our results show that, globally, river ice is measurably declining and will continue to decline linearly with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century.


  
Homogenization of instrumental time series of air temperature in Central Italy (1930-2015) 期刊论文
CLIMATE RESEARCH, 2019, 77 (3) : 193-204
作者:  Aruffo, Eleonora;  Di Carlo, Piero
收藏  |  浏览/下载：6/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/26
Homogenization  HOMER  Temperature  Italy  Observed climate data  Trends  
Spatial and temporal rainfall changes in the Jucar and Segura basins (1955-2016): Fine-scale trends 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2018, 38 (13) : 4699-4722
作者:  Javier Miro, Juan;  Jose Estrela, Maria;  Caselles, Vicente;  Gomez, Igor
收藏  |  浏览/下载：5/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
annual and seasonal trends  climate change  dry spells  extremes  observed data  rainfall  
Perception of and response to climate change by maize-dependent smallholders 期刊论文
CLIMATE RESEARCH, 2018, 75 (3) : 261-275
作者:  Bedeke, Sisay B.;  Vanhove, Wouter;  Wordofa, Muluken G.;  Natarajan, Kolandavel;  Van Damme, Patrick
收藏  |  浏览/下载：4/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
Adaptation strategies  Observed climate data  Crop yield  Resilience  Seasonal rainfall  Africa