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全球变暖已达到至少6000年未见的水平 快报文章
气候变化快报，2020年第14期
作者:  董利苹
Microsoft Word(13Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载：386/0  |  提交时间：2020/07/20
Holocene  Global Mean Surface Temperature  Multi-method Reconstruction Approach  
The past and future of global river ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 69-+
作者:  Yang, Xiao;  Pavelsky, Tamlin M.;  Allen, George H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：43/0  |  提交时间：2020/05/13

More than one-third of Earth'  s landmass is drained by rivers that seasonally freeze over. Ice transforms the hydrologic(1,2), ecologic(3,4), climatic(5) and socio-economic(6-8) functions of river corridors. Although river ice extent has been shown to be declining in many regions of the world(1), the seasonality, historical change and predicted future changes in river ice extent and duration have not yet been quantified globally. Previous studies of river ice, which suggested that declines in extent and duration could be attributed to warming temperatures(9,10), were based on data from sparse locations. Furthermore, existing projections of future ice extent are based solely on the location of the 0-degrees C isotherm11. Here, using satellite observations, we show that the global extent of river ice is declining, and we project a mean decrease in seasonal ice duration of 6.10 +/- 0.08 days per 1-degrees C increase in global mean surface air temperature. We tracked the extent of river ice using over 400,000 clear-sky Landsat images spanning 1984-2018 and observed a mean decline of 2.5 percentage points globally in the past three decades. To project future changes in river ice extent, we developed an observationally calibrated and validated model, based on temperature and season, which reduced the mean bias by 87 per cent compared with the 0-degree-Celsius isotherm approach. We applied this model to future climate projections for 2080-2100: compared with 2009-2029, the average river ice duration declines by 16.7 days under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, whereas under RCP 4.5 it declines on average by 7.3 days. Our results show that, globally, river ice is measurably declining and will continue to decline linearly with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century.


  
How likely is an El Nino to break the global mean surface temperature record during the 21st century? 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019, 14 (9)
作者:  Hsu, Chia-Wei;  Yin, Jianjun
收藏  |  浏览/下载：15/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/27
CMIP5  global mean surface temperature  El Nino  record-breaking  
Annual global mean temperature explains reproductive success in a marine vertebrate from 1955 to 2010 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2018, 24 (4) : 1599-1613
作者:  Mauck, Robert A.;  Dearborn, Donald C.;  Huntington, Charles E.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：14/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
age effects  air temperature  climate change  global mean temperature  longitudinal study  long-term dataset  seabirds  sea surface temperature  storm-petrels  
The role of external forcing and internal variability in regulating global mean surface temperatures on decadal timescales 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2017, 12 (3)
作者:  Dong, Lu;  McPhaden, Michael J.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：30/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
global mean surface temperature  decadal variability  external forcing  internal variability  sea surface temperature  climate models  global warming hiatus