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实地树木死亡率可矫正模型对全球森林碳汇的高估 快报文章
气候变化快报,2022年第09期
作者:  董利苹
Microsoft Word(14Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:771/0  |  提交时间:2022/04/29
Field-based Tree Mortality  Reduces  Estimates  Model-projected  Forest Carbon Sinks  
德加科研人员提出更精确预测地球温度的新方法 快报文章
气候变化快报,2021年第1期
作者:  廖琴
Microsoft Word(19Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:476/0  |  提交时间:2021/01/04
Climate Sensitivity Estimates  Global Temperature Projections  
Ice retreat in Wilkes Basin of East Antarctica during a warm interglacial 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 583 (7817) : 554-+
作者:  T. Blackburn;  G. H. Edwards;  S. Tulaczyk;  M. Scudder;  G. Piccione;  B. Hallet;  N. McLean;  J. C. Zachos;  B. Cheney;  J. T. Babbe
收藏  |  浏览/下载:61/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/09

Uranium isotopes in subglacial precipitates from the Wilkes Basin of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet reveal ice retreat during a warm Pleistocene interglacial period about 400,000 years ago.


Efforts to improve sea level forecasting on a warming planet have focused on determining the temperature, sea level and extent of polar ice sheets during Earth'  s past interglacial warm periods(1-3). About 400,000 years ago, during the interglacial period known as Marine Isotopic Stage 11 (MIS11), the global temperature was 1 to 2 degrees Celsius greater(2)and sea level was 6 to 13 metres higher(1,3). Sea level estimates in excess of about 10 metres, however, have been discounted because these require a contribution from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet(3), which has been argued to have remained stable for millions of years before and includes MIS11(4,5). Here we show how the evolution of(234)U enrichment within the subglacial waters of East Antarctica recorded the ice sheet'  s response to MIS11 warming. Within the Wilkes Basin, subglacial chemical precipitates of opal and calcite record accumulation of(234)U (the product of rock-water contact within an isolated subglacial reservoir) up to 20 times higher than that found in marine waters. The timescales of(234)U enrichment place the inception of this reservoir at MIS11. Informed by the(234)U cycling observed in the Laurentide Ice Sheet, where(234)U accumulated during periods of ice stability(6)and was flushed to global oceans in response to deglaciation(7), we interpret our East Antarctic dataset to represent ice loss within the Wilkes Basin at MIS11. The(234)U accumulation within the Wilkes Basin is also observed in the McMurdo Dry Valleys brines(8-10), indicating(11)that the brine originated beneath the adjacent East Antarctic Ice Sheet. The marine origin of brine salts(10)and bacteria(12)implies that MIS11 ice loss was coupled with marine flooding. Collectively, these data indicate that during one of the warmest Pleistocene interglacials, the ice sheet margin at the Wilkes Basin retreated to near the precipitate location, about 700 kilometres inland from the current position of the ice margin, which-assuming current ice volumes-would have contributed about 3 to 4 metres(13)to global sea levels.


  
Patterns and trends of Northern Hemisphere snow mass from 1980 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 581 (7808) : 294-+
作者:  Ibrahim, Nizar;  Maganuco, Simone;  Dal Sasso, Cristiano;  Fabbri, Matteo;  Auditore, Marco;  Bindellini, Gabriele;  Martill, David M.;  Zouhri, Samir;  Mattarelli, Diego A.;  Unwin, David M.;  Wiemann, Jasmina;  Bonadonna, Davide;  Amane, Ayoub;  Jakubczak, Juliana;  Joger, Ulrich;  Lauder, George V.;  Pierce, Stephanie E.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:35/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/25

Warming surface temperatures have driven a substantial reduction in the extent and duration of Northern Hemisphere snow cover(1-3). These changes in snow cover affect Earth'  s climate system via the surface energy budget, and influence freshwater resources across a large proportion of the Northern Hemisphere(4-6). In contrast to snow extent, reliable quantitative knowledge on seasonal snow mass and its trend is lacking(7-9). Here we use the new GlobSnow 3.0 dataset to show that the 1980-2018 annual maximum snow mass in the Northern Hemisphere was, on average, 3,062 +/- 35 billion tonnes (gigatonnes). Our quantification is for March (the month that most closely corresponds to peak snow mass), covers non-alpine regions above 40 degrees N and, crucially, includes a bias correction based on in-field snow observations. We compare our GlobSnow 3.0 estimates with three independent estimates of snow mass, each with and without the bias correction. Across the four datasets, the bias correction decreased the range from 2,433-3,380 gigatonnes (mean 2,867) to 2,846-3,062 gigatonnes (mean 2,938)-a reduction in uncertainty from 33% to 7.4%. On the basis of our bias-corrected GlobSnow 3.0 estimates, we find different continental trends over the 39-year satellite record. For example, snow mass decreased by 46 gigatonnes per decade across North America but had a negligible trend across Eurasia  both continents exhibit high regional variability. Our results enable a better estimation of the role of seasonal snow mass in Earth'  s energy, water and carbon budgets.


Applying a bias correction to a state-of-the-art dataset covering non-alpine regions of the Northern Hemisphere and to three other datasets yields a more constrained quantification of snow mass in March from 1980 to 2018.


  
Hydrothermal (NN)-N-15-N-15 abundances constrain the origins of mantle nitrogen 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7803) : 367-+
作者:  Zhao, Steven;  Jang, Cholsoon;  Liu, Joyce;  Uehara, Kahealani;  Gilbert, Michael;  Izzo, Luke;  Zeng, Xianfeng;  Trefely, Sophie;  Fernandez, Sully;  Carrer, Alessandro;  Miller, Katelyn D.;  Schug, Zachary T.;  Snyder, Nathaniel W.;  Gade, Terence P.;  Titchenell, Paul M.;  Rabinowitz, Joshua D.;  Wellen, Kathryn E.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:35/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

Nitrogen is the main constituent of the Earth'  s atmosphere, but its provenance in the Earth'  s mantle remains uncertain. The relative contribution of primordial nitrogen inherited during the Earth'  s accretion versus that subducted from the Earth'  s surface is unclear(1-6). Here we show that the mantle may have retained remnants of such primordial nitrogen. We use the rare (NN)-N-15-N-15 isotopologue of N-2 as a new tracer of air contamination in volcanic gas effusions. By constraining air contamination in gases from Iceland, Eifel (Germany) and Yellowstone (USA), we derive estimates of mantle delta N-15 (the fractional difference in N-15/N-14 from air), N-2/Ar-36 and N-2/He-3. Our results show that negative delta N-15 values observed in gases, previously regarded as indicating a mantle origin for nitrogen(7-10), in fact represent dominantly air-derived N-2 that experienced N-15/N-14 fractionation in hydrothermal systems. Using two-component mixing models to correct for this effect, the (NN)-N-15-N-15 data allow extrapolations that characterize mantle endmember delta N-15, N-2/Ar-36 and N-2/He-3 values. We show that the Eifel region has slightly increased delta N-15 and N-2/Ar-36 values relative to estimates for the convective mantle provided by mid-ocean-ridge basalts(11), consistent with subducted nitrogen being added to the mantle source. In contrast, we find that whereas the Yellowstone plume has delta N-15 values substantially greater than that of the convective mantle, resembling surface components(12-15), its N-2/Ar-36 and N-2/He-3 ratios are indistinguishable from those of the convective mantle. This observation raises the possibility that the plume hosts a primordial component. We provide a test of the subduction hypothesis with a two-box model, describing the evolution of mantle and surface nitrogen through geological time. We show that the effect of subduction on the deep nitrogen cycle may be less important than has been suggested by previous investigations. We propose instead that high mid-ocean-ridge basalt and plume delta N-15 values may both be dominantly primordial features.


  
Short-term tests validate long-term estimates of climate change 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 582 (7811) : 185-186
作者:  Tollefson, Jeff
收藏  |  浏览/下载:17/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Climate sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 levels is likely to be high.


Six-hour weather forecasts have been used to validate estimates of climate change hundreds of years from now. Such tests have great potential - but only if our weather-forecasting and climate-prediction systems are unified.


  
Measuring and forecasting progress towards the education-related SDG targets 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7805) : 636-+
作者:  Hindell, Mark A.;  Reisinger, Ryan R.;  Ropert-Coudert, Yan;  Huckstadt, Luis A.;  Trathan, Philip N.;  Bornemann, Horst;  Charrassin, Jean-Benoit;  Chown, Steven L.;  Costa, Daniel P.;  Danis, Bruno;  Lea, Mary-Anne;  Thompson, David;  Torres, Leigh G.;  Van de Putte, Anton P.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:45/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Education is a key dimension of well-being and a crucial indicator of development(1-4). The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) prioritize progress in education, with a new focus on inequality(5-7). Here we model the within-country distribution of years of schooling, and use this model to explore educational inequality since 1970 and to forecast progress towards the education-related 2030 SDG targets. We show that although the world is largely on track to achieve near-universal primary education by 2030, substantial challenges remain in the completion rates for secondary and tertiary education. Globally, the gender gap in schooling had nearly closed by 2018 but gender disparities remained acute in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, and North Africa and the Middle East. It is predicted that, by 2030, females will have achieved significantly higher educational attainment than males in 18 countries. Inequality in education reached a peak globally in 2017 and is projected to decrease steadily up to 2030. The distributions and inequality metrics presented here represent a framework that can be used to track the progress of each country towards the SDG targets and the level of inequality over time. Reducing educational inequality is one way to promote a fairer distribution of human capital and the development of more equitable human societies.


Great progress toward the education-related SDG targets has been made  however, global estimates of within-country distributions of education reveal gender disparities and high levels of total inequality in many parts of the world.


  
An engineered PET depolymerase to break down and recycle plastic bottles 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7802) : 216-+
作者:  Zhao, Evan Wenbo;  Liu, Tao;  Jonsson, Erlendur;  Lee, Jeongjae;  Temprano, Israel;  Jethwa, Rajesh B.;  Wang, Anqi;  Smith, Holly;  Carretero-Gonzalez, Javier;  Song, Qilei;  Grey, Clare P.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:104/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Present estimates suggest that of the 359 million tons of plastics produced annually worldwide(1), 150-200 million tons accumulate in landfill or in the natural environment(2). Poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET) is the most abundant polyester plastic, with almost 70 million tons manufactured annually worldwide for use in textiles and packaging(3). The main recycling process for PET, via thermomechanical means, results in a loss of mechanical properties(4). Consequently, de novo synthesis is preferred and PET waste continues to accumulate. With a high ratio of aromatic terephthalate units-which reduce chain mobility-PET is a polyester that is extremely difficult to hydrolyse(5). Several PET hydrolase enzymes have been reported, but show limited productivity(6,7). Here we describe an improved PET hydrolase that ultimately achieves, over 10 hours, a minimum of 90 per cent PET depolymerization into monomers, with a productivity of 16.7 grams of terephthalate per litre per hour (200 grams per kilogram of PET suspension, with an enzyme concentration of 3 milligrams per gram of PET). This highly efficient, optimized enzyme outperforms all PET hydrolases reported so far, including an enzyme(8,9) from the bacterium Ideonella sakaiensis strain 201-F6 (even assisted by a secondary enzyme(10)) and related improved variants(11-14) that have attracted recent interest. We also show that biologically recycled PET exhibiting the same properties as petrochemical PET can be produced from enzymatically depolymerized PET waste, before being processed into bottles, thereby contributing towards the concept of a circular PET economy.


Computer-aided engineering produces improvements to an enzyme that breaks down poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET) into its constituent monomers, which are used to synthesize PET of near-petrochemical grade that can be further processed into bottles.


  
Space-based quantification of per capita CO2 emissions from cities 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (3)
作者:  Wu, Dien;  Lin, John C.;  Oda, Tomohiro;  Kort, Eric A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:36/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
per capita CO2 emissions  urban scaling  population density  space-based estimates  
Preindustrial (CH4)-C-14 indicates greater anthropogenic fossil CH4 emissions 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 578 (7795) : 409-+
作者:  Keener, Megan;  Hunt, Camden;  Carroll, Timothy G.;  Kampel, Vladimir;  Dobrovetsky, Roman;  Hayton, Trevor W.;  Menard, Gabriel
收藏  |  浏览/下载:56/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

Atmospheric methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas, and its mole fraction has more than doubled since the preindustrial era(1). Fossil fuel extraction and use are among the largest anthropogenic sources of CH4 emissions, but the precise magnitude of these contributions is a subject of debate(2,3). Carbon-14 in CH4 ((CH4)-C-14) can be used to distinguish between fossil (C-14-free) CH4 emissions and contemporaneous biogenic sources  however, poorly constrained direct (CH4)-C-14 emissions from nuclear reactors have complicated this approach since the middle of the 20th century(4,5). Moreover, the partitioning of total fossil CH4 emissions (presently 172 to 195 teragrams CH4 per year)(2,3) between anthropogenic and natural geological sources (such as seeps and mud volcanoes) is under debate  emission inventories suggest that the latter account for about 40 to 60 teragrams CH4 per year(6,7). Geological emissions were less than 15.4 teragrams CH4 per year at the end of the Pleistocene, about 11,600 years ago(8), but that period is an imperfect analogue for present-day emissions owing to the large terrestrial ice sheet cover, lower sea level and extensive permafrost. Here we use preindustrial-era ice core (CH4)-C-14 measurements to show that natural geological CH4 emissions to the atmosphere were about 1.6 teragrams CH4 per year, with a maximum of 5.4 teragrams CH4 per year (95 per cent confidence limit)-an order of magnitude lower than the currently used estimates. This result indicates that anthropogenic fossil CH4 emissions are underestimated by about 38 to 58 teragrams CH4 per year, or about 25 to 40 per cent of recent estimates. Our record highlights the human impact on the atmosphere and climate, provides a firm target for inventories of the global CH4 budget, and will help to inform strategies for targeted emission reductions(9,10).


Isotopic evidence from ice cores indicates that preindustrial-era geological methane emissions were lower than previously thought, suggesting that present-day emissions of methane from fossil fuels are underestimated.