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The past and future of global river ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 69-+
作者:  Yang, Xiao;  Pavelsky, Tamlin M.;  Allen, George H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：7/0  |  提交时间：2020/05/13

More than one-third of Earth'  s landmass is drained by rivers that seasonally freeze over. Ice transforms the hydrologic(1,2), ecologic(3,4), climatic(5) and socio-economic(6-8) functions of river corridors. Although river ice extent has been shown to be declining in many regions of the world(1), the seasonality, historical change and predicted future changes in river ice extent and duration have not yet been quantified globally. Previous studies of river ice, which suggested that declines in extent and duration could be attributed to warming temperatures(9,10), were based on data from sparse locations. Furthermore, existing projections of future ice extent are based solely on the location of the 0-degrees C isotherm11. Here, using satellite observations, we show that the global extent of river ice is declining, and we project a mean decrease in seasonal ice duration of 6.10 +/- 0.08 days per 1-degrees C increase in global mean surface air temperature. We tracked the extent of river ice using over 400,000 clear-sky Landsat images spanning 1984-2018 and observed a mean decline of 2.5 percentage points globally in the past three decades. To project future changes in river ice extent, we developed an observationally calibrated and validated model, based on temperature and season, which reduced the mean bias by 87 per cent compared with the 0-degree-Celsius isotherm approach. We applied this model to future climate projections for 2080-2100: compared with 2009-2029, the average river ice duration declines by 16.7 days under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, whereas under RCP 4.5 it declines on average by 7.3 days. Our results show that, globally, river ice is measurably declining and will continue to decline linearly with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century.


  
A Systematic Approach to Assessing the Sources and Global Impacts of Errors in Climate Models 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2019, 32 (23) : 8301-8321
作者:  Schubert, S. D.;  Chang, Y.;  Wang, H.;  Koster, R. D.;  Molod, A. M.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：7/0  |  提交时间：2020/02/17
Bias  Climate models  Model errors  Reanalysis data  
Present day bias and future change signal of temperature over China in a series of multi-GCM driven RCM simulations 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019
作者:  Wu, Jia;  Gao, Xuejie
收藏  |  浏览/下载：8/0  |  提交时间：2020/02/17
Bias  Change signal  Temperature  Regional climate model  China  
Extreme precipitation events under climate change in the Iberian Peninsula 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Pereira, Susana Cardoso;  Marta-Almeida, Martinho;  Carvalho, Ana C.;  Rocha, Alfredo
收藏  |  浏览/下载：8/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/27
bias correction  climate change  Iberian Peninsula  precipitation episodes  regional climate modelling  WRF model  
A new two-stage multivariate quantile mapping method for bias correcting climate model outputs 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 3603-3623
作者:  Guo, Qiang;  Chen, Jie;  Zhang, Xunchang;  Shen, Mingxi;  Chen, Hua;  Guo, Shenglian
收藏  |  浏览/下载：6/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/27
Bias correction  Inter-variable correlation  Statistical downscaling  Climate change  Global climate model  
Evaluating reanalysis-driven CORDEX regional climate models over Australia: model performance and errors 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 2985-3005
作者:  Di Virgilio, Giovanni;  Evans, Jason P.;  Di Luca, Alejandro;  Olson, Roman;  Argueeso, Daniel;  Kala, Jatin;  Andrys, Julia;  Hoffmann, Peter;  Katzfey, Jack J.;  Rockell, Burkhardt
收藏  |  浏览/下载：18/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/27
Australian climate  CORDEX-Australasia  Dynamical downscaling  Model bias  Precipitation  Temperature  
Validation of spatial variability in downscaling results from the VALUE perfect predictor experiment 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019, 39 (9) : 3819-3845
作者:  Widmann, Martin;  Bedia, Joaquin;  Gutierrez, Jose M.;  Bosshard, Thomas;  Hertig, Elke;  Maraun, Douglas;  Casado, Maria J.;  Ramos, Petra;  Cardoso, Rita M.;  Soares, Pedro M. M.;  Ribalaygua, Jamie;  Page, Christian;  Fischer, Andreas M.;  Herrera, Sixto;  Huth, Radan
收藏  |  浏览/下载：9/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/27
bias adjustment  downscaling  model output statistics  perfect prognosis  regional climate  spatial variability  validation  
Process-based evaluation of the VALUE perfect predictor experiment of statistical downscaling methods 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019, 39 (9) : 3868-3893
作者:  Soares, P. M. M.;  Maraun, D.;  Brands, S.;  Jury, M. W.;  Gutierrez, J. M.;  San-Martin, D.;  Hertig, E.;  Huth, R.;  Vozila, A. Belusic;  Cardoso, Rita M.;  Kotlarski, S.;  Drobinski, P.;  Obermann-Hellhund, A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：4/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/27
bias adjustment  climate change  downscaling  model output statistics  perfect prognosis  regime-oriented  
The impact of climate model sea surface temperature biases on tropical cyclone simulations 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53: 173-192
作者:  Hsu, Wei-Ching;  Patricola, Christina M.;  Chang, Ping
收藏  |  浏览/下载：6/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/26
SST bias  Tropical cyclones  Tropical channel model  Climate model bias  
Bias nonstationarity of global climate model outputs: The role of internal climate variability and climate model sensitivity 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019, 39 (4) : 2278-2294
作者:  Hui, Yu;  Chen, Jie;  Xu, Chong-Yu;  Xiong, Lihua;  Chen, Hua
收藏  |  浏览/下载：7/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/26
bias nonstationarity  climate change signal  climate model sensitivity  internal climate variability  pseudoreality approach