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Extant timetrees are consistent with a myriad of diversification histories 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7804) : 502-+
作者:  Bhaskar, M. K.;  Riedinger, R.;  Machielse, B.;  Levonian, D. S.;  Nguyen, C. T.;  Knall, E. N.;  Park, H.;  Englund, D.;  Loncar, M.;  Sukachev, D. D.;  Lukin, M. D.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：19/0  |  提交时间：2020/07/03

An infinite number of alternative diversification scenarios-which may have markedly different, but equally plausible, dynamics-can underpin a given time-calibrated phylogeny of extant species, suggesting many previous studies have over-interpreted phylogenetic evidence.


Time-calibrated phylogenies of extant species (referred to here as '  extant timetrees'  ) are widely used for estimating diversification dynamics(1). However, there has been considerable debate surrounding the reliability of these inferences(2-5) and, to date, this critical question remains unresolved. Here we clarify the precise information that can be extracted from extant timetrees under the generalized birth-death model, which underlies most existing methods of estimation. We prove that, for any diversification scenario, there exists an infinite number of alternative diversification scenarios that are equally likely to have generated any given extant timetree. These '  congruent'  scenarios cannot possibly be distinguished using extant timetrees alone, even in the presence of infinite data. Importantly, congruent diversification scenarios can exhibit markedly different and yet similarly plausible dynamics, which suggests that many previous studies may have over-interpreted phylogenetic evidence. We introduce identifiable and easily interpretable variables that contain all available information about past diversification dynamics, and demonstrate that these can be estimated from extant timetrees. We suggest that measuring and modelling these identifiable variables offers a more robust way to study historical diversification dynamics. Our findings also make it clear that palaeontological data will continue to be crucial for answering some macroevolutionary questions.


  
The Role of Soil Moisture Feedbacks in Future Summer Temperature Change over East Asia 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2019, 124 (22) : 12034-12056
作者:  Li, Kai;  Zhang, Jingyong;  Yang, Kai;  Wu, Lingyun
收藏  |  浏览/下载：6/0  |  提交时间：2020/02/17
soil moisture feedbacks  future temperature change  CCSM-WRF modeling  RCP8  5 scenario  East Asia  
Patch aggregation trends of the global climate landscape under future global warming scenario 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Lu, Hongwei;  Guan, Yanlong;  He, Li;  Adhikari, Hari;  Pellikka, Petri K. E.;  Heiskanen, Janne;  Maeda, Eduardo
收藏  |  浏览/下载：7/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/27
aggregation  CMIP5  Koppen-Geiger climate classification  landscape  RCP8  5 scenario  
Quantifying East Asian Summer Monsoon Dynamics in the ECP4.5 Scenario With Reference to the Mid-Piacenzian Warm Period 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2018, 45 (22) : 12523-12533
作者:  Sun, Yong;  Ramstein, Gilles;  Li, Laurent Z. X.;  Contoux, Camille;  Tan, Ning;  Zhou, Tianjun
收藏  |  浏览/下载：6/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
Pliocene  ECP4  5 scenario  PlioMIP  CMIP5  monsoon dynamics  
Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century 期刊论文
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS, 2017, 42
作者:  Kriegler, Elmar;  Bauer, Nico;  Popp, Alexander;  Humpenoeder, Florian;  Leimbach, Marian;  Strefler, Jessica;  Baumstark, Lavinia;  Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon;  Hilaire, Jerome;  Klein, David;  Mouratiadou, Ioanna;  Weindl, Isabelle;  Bertram, Christoph;  Dietrich, Jan -Philipp;  Luderer, Gunnar;  Pehl, Michaja;  Pietzcker, Robert;  Piontek, Franziska;  Lotze-Campen, Hermann;  Biewald, Anne;  Bonsch, Markus;  Giannousakis, Anastasis;  Kreidenweis, Ulrich;  Mueller, Christoph;  Rolinski, Susanne;  Schultes, Anselm;  Schwanitz, Jana;  Stevanovic, Miodrag;  Calvin, Katherine;  Emmerling, Johannes;  Fujimori, Shinichiro;  Edenhofer, Ottmar
收藏  |  浏览/下载：14/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
Shared Socio-economic Pathway  SSP5  Emission scenario  Energy transformation  Land-use change  Integrated assessment modeling