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The past and future of global river ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 69-+
作者:  Yang, Xiao;  Pavelsky, Tamlin M.;  Allen, George H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：7/0  |  提交时间：2020/05/13

More than one-third of Earth'  s landmass is drained by rivers that seasonally freeze over. Ice transforms the hydrologic(1,2), ecologic(3,4), climatic(5) and socio-economic(6-8) functions of river corridors. Although river ice extent has been shown to be declining in many regions of the world(1), the seasonality, historical change and predicted future changes in river ice extent and duration have not yet been quantified globally. Previous studies of river ice, which suggested that declines in extent and duration could be attributed to warming temperatures(9,10), were based on data from sparse locations. Furthermore, existing projections of future ice extent are based solely on the location of the 0-degrees C isotherm11. Here, using satellite observations, we show that the global extent of river ice is declining, and we project a mean decrease in seasonal ice duration of 6.10 +/- 0.08 days per 1-degrees C increase in global mean surface air temperature. We tracked the extent of river ice using over 400,000 clear-sky Landsat images spanning 1984-2018 and observed a mean decline of 2.5 percentage points globally in the past three decades. To project future changes in river ice extent, we developed an observationally calibrated and validated model, based on temperature and season, which reduced the mean bias by 87 per cent compared with the 0-degree-Celsius isotherm approach. We applied this model to future climate projections for 2080-2100: compared with 2009-2029, the average river ice duration declines by 16.7 days under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, whereas under RCP 4.5 it declines on average by 7.3 days. Our results show that, globally, river ice is measurably declining and will continue to decline linearly with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century.


  
Future haze events in Beijing, China: When climate warms by 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Liu, Cuiping;  Zhang, Feng;  Miao, Lijuan;  Lei, Yadong;  Yang, Quan
收藏  |  浏览/下载：13/0  |  提交时间：2020/02/17
1  5 degrees C  2  0 degrees C  China  CMIP5  global warming  haze  
Uncertainty in Assessing Temperature Impact on US Maize Yield Under Global Warming: The Role of Compounding Precipitation Effect 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2019, 124 (12) : 6238-6246
作者:  Leng, Guoyong
收藏  |  浏览/下载：6/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/26
global warming  temperature  compounding risk  1  5 degrees C  crop yield  United States  
Global warming from 1.5 to 2 degrees C will lead to increase in precipitation intensity in China 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019, 39 (4) : 2351-2361
作者:  Zhou, Mengzi;  Zhou, Guangsheng;  Lv, Xiaomin;  Zhou, Li;  Ji, Yuhe
收藏  |  浏览/下载：5/0  |  提交时间：2019/11/26
2 degrees C global warming  5 degrees C global warming  extreme precipitation  spatial distribution  
Downscaling and projection of summer rainfall in Eastern China using a nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model 期刊论文
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2019, 39 (3) : 1319-1330
作者:  Guo, Lianyi;  Jiang, Zhihong;  Ding, Mei;  Chen, Weilin;  Li, Laurent
收藏  |  浏览/下载：6/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
daily precipitation  future projection  global warming of 1  5 and 2 degrees C  nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model  statistical downscaling  
Arctic Sea Ice in a 1.5 degrees C Warmer World 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2018, 45 (4) : 1963-1971
作者:  Niederdrenk, Anne Laura;  Notz, Dirk
收藏  |  浏览/下载：5/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
Arctic sea ice  global warming  1  5 degrees C  
Permafrost degradation and associated ground settlement estimation under 2 degrees C global warming 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2017, 49
作者:  Guo, Donglin;  Wang, Huijun
收藏  |  浏览/下载：5/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/09
Permafrost degradation  Ground settlement  2 degrees C global warming  CMIP5