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The past and future of global river ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 69-+
作者:  Yang, Xiao;  Pavelsky, Tamlin M.;  Allen, George H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：7/0  |  提交时间：2020/05/13

More than one-third of Earth'  s landmass is drained by rivers that seasonally freeze over. Ice transforms the hydrologic(1,2), ecologic(3,4), climatic(5) and socio-economic(6-8) functions of river corridors. Although river ice extent has been shown to be declining in many regions of the world(1), the seasonality, historical change and predicted future changes in river ice extent and duration have not yet been quantified globally. Previous studies of river ice, which suggested that declines in extent and duration could be attributed to warming temperatures(9,10), were based on data from sparse locations. Furthermore, existing projections of future ice extent are based solely on the location of the 0-degrees C isotherm11. Here, using satellite observations, we show that the global extent of river ice is declining, and we project a mean decrease in seasonal ice duration of 6.10 +/- 0.08 days per 1-degrees C increase in global mean surface air temperature. We tracked the extent of river ice using over 400,000 clear-sky Landsat images spanning 1984-2018 and observed a mean decline of 2.5 percentage points globally in the past three decades. To project future changes in river ice extent, we developed an observationally calibrated and validated model, based on temperature and season, which reduced the mean bias by 87 per cent compared with the 0-degree-Celsius isotherm approach. We applied this model to future climate projections for 2080-2100: compared with 2009-2029, the average river ice duration declines by 16.7 days under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, whereas under RCP 4.5 it declines on average by 7.3 days. Our results show that, globally, river ice is measurably declining and will continue to decline linearly with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century.


  
Summary of the Hanford Site Environmental Report for Calendar Year 2009 科技报告
来源：US Department of Energy (DOE). 出版年： 2010
作者:  Duncan, Joanne P.;  Poston, Ted M.;  Dirkes, Roger L.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：3/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/05
Hanford Site  environmental  overview  monitoring  data  2009  
West Valley Demonstration Project Annual Site Environmental Report Calendar Year 2009 科技报告
来源：US Department of Energy (DOE). 出版年： 2010
作者:  West Valley Environmental Services LLC (WVES) and URS Corporation
收藏  |  浏览/下载：3/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/05
West Valley Demonstration Project  WVDP  Annual Site Environmental Report  ASER  Calendar Year 2009  West Valley Environmental Services LLC  WVES  URS Corporation  Environmental Protection Program  DE-AC30-07CC30000  Public Health and Safety & Environment  
Nevada Test Site Environmental Report 2009 科技报告
来源：US Department of Energy (DOE). 出版年： 2010
作者:  Cathy Wills, ed.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：4/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/05
Nevada Test Site  Environmental Report  NTSER  ASER  2009  
Nevada Test Site Environmental Report 2009, Attachment A: Site Description 科技报告
来源：US Department of Energy (DOE). 出版年： 2010
作者:  Cathy Wills, ed.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：0/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/05
Nevada Test Site  Environmental Report  NTSER  ASER  2009  Site Description  
Nevada Test Site Environmental Report Summary 2009 科技报告
来源：US Department of Energy (DOE). 出版年： 2010
作者:  Cathy Wills, ed.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：0/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/05
Nevada Test Site  Environmental Report  NTSER  ASER  2009  Summary  
Oak Ridge Reservation Annual Site Environmental Report for 2009 科技报告
来源：US Department of Energy (DOE). 出版年： 2010
作者:  Bechtel Jacobs
收藏  |  浏览/下载：1/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/05
Site Environmental Report  2009  
Hanford Site Environmental Report for Calendar Year 2009 科技报告
来源：US Department of Energy (DOE). 出版年： 2010
作者:  Poston, Ted M.;  Duncan, Joanne P.;  Dirkes, Roger L.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：5/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/05
Hanford Site  environmental  overview  laws and regulations  monitoring  surveillance  2009  
Annual Report for Gravity Collection Lysimeter Monitoring in ERDF Cells 5, 6, 7, an 8, CY 2009 科技报告
来源：US Department of Energy (DOE). 出版年： 2010
作者:  R.L. Weiss, B.L. Lawrence
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ERDF  lysimeter  gravity  2009  Hanford Site  
Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program FY 2009 for Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 科技报告
来源：US Department of Energy (DOE). 出版年： 2010
作者:  Hansen, Todd C.
收藏  |  浏览/下载：1/0  |  提交时间：2019/04/05
Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) FY2009