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国际研究关注加强基于自然的解决方案的科学基础 快报文章
资源环境快报,2024年第7期
作者:  裴惠娟
Microsoft Word(17Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:551/0  |  提交时间:2024/04/16
Nature-based Climate Solutions  Uncertainty  
Uncertainties in macroeconomic assessments of low-carbon transition pathways - The case of the European iron and steel industry 期刊论文
ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS, 2020, 172
作者:  Bachner, G.;  Mayer, J.;  Steininger, K. W.;  Anger-Kraavi, A.;  Smith, A.;  Barker, T. S.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
Climate change mitigation  Uncertainty  Low carbon transition  Iron and steel  Macroeconomic modelling  Process emissions  
Between Ostrom and Nordhaus: The research landscape of sustainability economics 期刊论文
ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS, 2020, 172
作者:  Drupp, Moritz A.;  Baumgaertner, Stefan;  Meyer, Moritz;  Quaas, Martin F.;  von Wehrden, Henrik
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
Sustainability  Economics  Human-nature relationship  Uncertainty  Future  Justice  Literature  Bibliographic analysis  Vocabulary  
Patterns and trends of Northern Hemisphere snow mass from 1980 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 581 (7808) : 294-+
作者:  Ibrahim, Nizar;  Maganuco, Simone;  Dal Sasso, Cristiano;  Fabbri, Matteo;  Auditore, Marco;  Bindellini, Gabriele;  Martill, David M.;  Zouhri, Samir;  Mattarelli, Diego A.;  Unwin, David M.;  Wiemann, Jasmina;  Bonadonna, Davide;  Amane, Ayoub;  Jakubczak, Juliana;  Joger, Ulrich;  Lauder, George V.;  Pierce, Stephanie E.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:18/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/25

Warming surface temperatures have driven a substantial reduction in the extent and duration of Northern Hemisphere snow cover(1-3). These changes in snow cover affect Earth'  s climate system via the surface energy budget, and influence freshwater resources across a large proportion of the Northern Hemisphere(4-6). In contrast to snow extent, reliable quantitative knowledge on seasonal snow mass and its trend is lacking(7-9). Here we use the new GlobSnow 3.0 dataset to show that the 1980-2018 annual maximum snow mass in the Northern Hemisphere was, on average, 3,062 +/- 35 billion tonnes (gigatonnes). Our quantification is for March (the month that most closely corresponds to peak snow mass), covers non-alpine regions above 40 degrees N and, crucially, includes a bias correction based on in-field snow observations. We compare our GlobSnow 3.0 estimates with three independent estimates of snow mass, each with and without the bias correction. Across the four datasets, the bias correction decreased the range from 2,433-3,380 gigatonnes (mean 2,867) to 2,846-3,062 gigatonnes (mean 2,938)-a reduction in uncertainty from 33% to 7.4%. On the basis of our bias-corrected GlobSnow 3.0 estimates, we find different continental trends over the 39-year satellite record. For example, snow mass decreased by 46 gigatonnes per decade across North America but had a negligible trend across Eurasia  both continents exhibit high regional variability. Our results enable a better estimation of the role of seasonal snow mass in Earth'  s energy, water and carbon budgets.


Applying a bias correction to a state-of-the-art dataset covering non-alpine regions of the Northern Hemisphere and to three other datasets yields a more constrained quantification of snow mass in March from 1980 to 2018.


  
Resource management and joint-planning in fragmented societies 期刊论文
ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS, 2020, 171
作者:  Schultz, Bill
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
Diversity  Identity  Harvest planning  Game theory  Information  Resource management  Group decision-making  Uncertainty  
The Fifth Stage in Water Management: Policy Lessons for Water Governance 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2020, 56 (5)
作者:  Loch, A.;  Adamson, D.;  Dumbrell, N. P.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13
uncertainty  water  markets  risk management  policy  
Understanding the Impact of Observation Data Uncertainty on Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts Using a Dynamic Hierarchical Model 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2020, 56 (4)
作者:  Das Bhowmik, Rajarshi;  Ng, Tze Ling;  Wang, Jui-Pin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
uncertainty  measurement error  Bayesian  BDHM  forecasting  Streamflow  
Detection of metastable electronic states by Penning trap mass spectrometry 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 581 (7806) : 42-+
作者:  Rauch, Jennifer N.;  Luna, Gabriel;  Guzman, Elmer;  Audouard, Morgane;  Challis, Collin;  Sibih, Youssef E.;  Leshuk, Carolina;  Hernandez, Israel;  Wegmann, Susanne;  Hyman, Bradley T.;  Gradinaru, Viviana;  Kampmann, Martin;  Kosik, Kenneth S.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

State-of-the-art optical clocks(1) achieve precisions of 10(-18) or better using ensembles of atoms in optical lattices(2,3) or individual ions in radio-frequency traps(4,5). Promising candidates for use in atomic clocks are highly charged ions(6) (HCIs) and nuclear transitions(7), which are largely insensitive to external perturbations and reach wavelengths beyond the optical range(8) that are accessible to frequency combs(9). However, insufficiently accurate atomic structure calculations hinder the identification of suitable transitions in HCIs. Here we report the observation of a long-lived metastable electronic state in an HCI by measuring the mass difference between the ground and excited states in rhenium, providing a non-destructive, direct determination of an electronic excitation energy. The result is in agreement with advanced calculations. We use the high-precision Penning trap mass spectrometer PENTATRAP to measure the cyclotron frequency ratio of the ground state to the metastable state of the ion with a precision of 10(-11)-an improvement by a factor of ten compared with previous measurements(10,11). With a lifetime of about 130 days, the potential soft-X-ray frequency reference at 4.96 x 10(16) hertz (corresponding to a transition energy of 202 electronvolts) has a linewidth of only 5 x 10(-8) hertz and one of the highest electronic quality factors (10(24)) measured experimentally so far. The low uncertainty of our method will enable searches for further soft-X-ray clock transitions(8,12) in HCIs, which are required for precision studies of fundamental physics(6).


Penning trap mass spectrometry is used to measure the electronic transition energy from a long-lived metastable state to the ground state in highly charged rhenium ions with a precision of 10(-11).


  
Backward Probability Model for Identifying Multiple Contaminant Source Zones Under Transient Variably Saturated Flow Conditions 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2020, 56 (4)
作者:  Hwang, Hyoun-Tae;  Jeen, Sung-Wook;  Kaown, Dugin;  Lee, Seong-Sun;  Sudicky, Edward A.;  Steinmoeller, Derek T.;  Lee, Kang-Kun
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
backward probability model  source zone identifications  transient flow  vadose zone  uncertainty analysis  HydroGeoSphere  
Does Information Theory Provide a New Paradigm for Earth Science? Hypothesis Testing 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2020, 56 (2)
作者:  Nearing, Grey S.;  Ruddell, Benjamin L.;  Bennett, Andrew R.;  Prieto, Cristina;  Gupta, Hoshin V.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
information theory  hypothesis testing  model evaluation  epistemic uncertainty