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伦敦政治经济学院认为碳社会成本具有代内不平等性 快报文章
气候变化快报,2023年第3期
作者:  刘莉娜
Microsoft Word(16Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:687/0  |  提交时间:2023/02/05
Social Cost of Carbon  Intragenerational Inequality  Economic Uncertainty  
研究揭示实施太阳辐射管理地球工程的风险 快报文章
气候变化快报,2020年第13期
作者:  裴惠娟
Microsoft Word(15Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载:403/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/04
Solar Geoengineering  Excessive Cooling  Uncertainty  
Quantifying the uncertainty introduced by internal climate variability in projections of Canadian crop production 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (7)
作者:  Qian, Budong;  Jing, Qi;  Smith, Ward;  Grant, Brian;  Cannon, Alex J.;  Zhang, Xuebin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/18
climate change impacts  crop production  crop modelling  internal climate variability  uncertainty  
Evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models Over the Iberian Peninsula: Observational Uncertainty Analysis 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2020, 125 (12)
作者:  Herrera, S.;  Soares, P. M. M.;  Cardoso, R. M.;  Gutierrez, J. M.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:13/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/18
observational uncertainty  regional climate models  ensemble  extremes  Iberia01  CORDEX  
Convection-Permitting Models Offer Promise of More Certain Extreme Rainfall Projections 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 47 (13)
作者:  Fosser, Giorgia;  Kendon, Elizabeth J.;  Stephenson, David;  Tucker, Simon
收藏  |  浏览/下载:12/0  |  提交时间:2020/06/16
convection-permitting model  climate change  uncertainty  climate  
Exploring sources of uncertainty in premature mortality estimates from fine particulate matter: the case of China 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (6)
作者:  Giani, Paolo;  Anav, Alessandro;  De Marco, Alessandra;  Feng, Zhaozhong;  Crippa, Paola
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/18
WRF-Chem  health impact assessment  particulate matter exposure  China'  s air quality  uncertainty quantification  Monte Carlo  
Nation-wide estimation of groundwater redox conditions and nitrate concentrations through machine learning 期刊论文
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (6)
作者:  Knoll, Lukas;  Breuer, Lutz;  Bach, Martin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
groundwater quality  nitrate pollution  redox conditions  random forest  uncertainty  large-scale  
Sensitivity of Historical Climate Simulations to Uncertain Aerosol Forcing 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 47 (13)
作者:  Dittus, Andrea J.;  Hawkins, Ed;  Wilcox, Laura J.;  Sutton, Rowan T.;  Smith, Christopher J.;  Andrews, Martin B.;  Forster, Piers M.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/25
historical aerosol forcing  climate model simulations  Forcing uncertainty  Transient Climate Response  Large ensemble  
Patterns and trends of Northern Hemisphere snow mass from 1980 to 2018 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 581 (7808) : 294-+
作者:  Ibrahim, Nizar;  Maganuco, Simone;  Dal Sasso, Cristiano;  Fabbri, Matteo;  Auditore, Marco;  Bindellini, Gabriele;  Martill, David M.;  Zouhri, Samir;  Mattarelli, Diego A.;  Unwin, David M.;  Wiemann, Jasmina;  Bonadonna, Davide;  Amane, Ayoub;  Jakubczak, Juliana;  Joger, Ulrich;  Lauder, George V.;  Pierce, Stephanie E.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:18/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/25

Warming surface temperatures have driven a substantial reduction in the extent and duration of Northern Hemisphere snow cover(1-3). These changes in snow cover affect Earth'  s climate system via the surface energy budget, and influence freshwater resources across a large proportion of the Northern Hemisphere(4-6). In contrast to snow extent, reliable quantitative knowledge on seasonal snow mass and its trend is lacking(7-9). Here we use the new GlobSnow 3.0 dataset to show that the 1980-2018 annual maximum snow mass in the Northern Hemisphere was, on average, 3,062 +/- 35 billion tonnes (gigatonnes). Our quantification is for March (the month that most closely corresponds to peak snow mass), covers non-alpine regions above 40 degrees N and, crucially, includes a bias correction based on in-field snow observations. We compare our GlobSnow 3.0 estimates with three independent estimates of snow mass, each with and without the bias correction. Across the four datasets, the bias correction decreased the range from 2,433-3,380 gigatonnes (mean 2,867) to 2,846-3,062 gigatonnes (mean 2,938)-a reduction in uncertainty from 33% to 7.4%. On the basis of our bias-corrected GlobSnow 3.0 estimates, we find different continental trends over the 39-year satellite record. For example, snow mass decreased by 46 gigatonnes per decade across North America but had a negligible trend across Eurasia  both continents exhibit high regional variability. Our results enable a better estimation of the role of seasonal snow mass in Earth'  s energy, water and carbon budgets.


Applying a bias correction to a state-of-the-art dataset covering non-alpine regions of the Northern Hemisphere and to three other datasets yields a more constrained quantification of snow mass in March from 1980 to 2018.


  
Evaluation of the Consistency of ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 47 (11)
作者:  Richardson, David S.;  Cloke, Hannah L.;  Pappenberger, Florian
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13
ensemble  consistency  jumpiness  uncertainty  inconsistency  predictability