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Preindustrial (CH4)-C-14 indicates greater anthropogenic fossil CH4 emissions 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 578 (7795) : 409-+
作者:  Keener, Megan;  Hunt, Camden;  Carroll, Timothy G.;  Kampel, Vladimir;  Dobrovetsky, Roman;  Hayton, Trevor W.;  Menard, Gabriel
收藏  |  浏览/下载:25/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

Atmospheric methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas, and its mole fraction has more than doubled since the preindustrial era(1). Fossil fuel extraction and use are among the largest anthropogenic sources of CH4 emissions, but the precise magnitude of these contributions is a subject of debate(2,3). Carbon-14 in CH4 ((CH4)-C-14) can be used to distinguish between fossil (C-14-free) CH4 emissions and contemporaneous biogenic sources  however, poorly constrained direct (CH4)-C-14 emissions from nuclear reactors have complicated this approach since the middle of the 20th century(4,5). Moreover, the partitioning of total fossil CH4 emissions (presently 172 to 195 teragrams CH4 per year)(2,3) between anthropogenic and natural geological sources (such as seeps and mud volcanoes) is under debate  emission inventories suggest that the latter account for about 40 to 60 teragrams CH4 per year(6,7). Geological emissions were less than 15.4 teragrams CH4 per year at the end of the Pleistocene, about 11,600 years ago(8), but that period is an imperfect analogue for present-day emissions owing to the large terrestrial ice sheet cover, lower sea level and extensive permafrost. Here we use preindustrial-era ice core (CH4)-C-14 measurements to show that natural geological CH4 emissions to the atmosphere were about 1.6 teragrams CH4 per year, with a maximum of 5.4 teragrams CH4 per year (95 per cent confidence limit)-an order of magnitude lower than the currently used estimates. This result indicates that anthropogenic fossil CH4 emissions are underestimated by about 38 to 58 teragrams CH4 per year, or about 25 to 40 per cent of recent estimates. Our record highlights the human impact on the atmosphere and climate, provides a firm target for inventories of the global CH4 budget, and will help to inform strategies for targeted emission reductions(9,10).


Isotopic evidence from ice cores indicates that preindustrial-era geological methane emissions were lower than previously thought, suggesting that present-day emissions of methane from fossil fuels are underestimated.


  
Oceanic forcing of penultimate deglacial and last interglacial sea-level rise 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7792) : 660-+
作者:  Rizal, Yan;  Westaway, Kira E.;  Zaim, Yahdi;  van den Bergh, Gerrit D.;  Bettis, E. Arthur, III;  Morwood, Michael J.;  Huffman, O. Frank;  Grun, Rainer;  Joannes-Boyau, Renaud;  Bailey, Richard M.;  Sidarto;  Westaway, Michael C.;  Kurniawan, Iwan;  Moore, Mark W.;  Storey, Michael;  Aziz, Fachroel;  Suminto;  Zhao, Jian-xin;  Aswan;  Sipola, Maija E.;  Larick, Roy;  Zonneveld, John-Paul;  Scott, Robert;  Putt, Shelby;  Ciochon, Russell L.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:21/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

Sea-level histories during the two most recent deglacial-interglacial intervals show substantial differences(1-3) despite both periods undergoing similar changes in global mean temperature(4,5) and forcing from greenhouse gases(6). Although the last interglaciation (LIG) experienced stronger boreal summer insolation forcing than the present interglaciation(7), understanding why LIG global mean sea level may have been six to nine metres higher than today has proven particularly challenging(2). Extensive areas of polar ice sheets were grounded below sea level during both glacial and interglacial periods, with grounding lines and fringing ice shelves extending onto continental shelves(8). This suggests that oceanic forcing by subsurface warming may also have contributed to ice-sheet loss(9-12) analogous to ongoing changes in the Antarctic(13,14) and Greenland(15) ice sheets. Such forcing would have been especially effective during glacial periods, when the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) experienced large variations on millennial timescales(16), with a reduction of the AMOC causing subsurface warming throughout much of the Atlantic basin(9,12,17). Here we show that greater subsurface warming induced by the longer period of reduced AMOC during the penultimate deglaciation can explain the more-rapid sea-level rise compared with the last deglaciation. This greater forcing also contributed to excess loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets during the LIG, causing global mean sea level to rise at least four metres above modern levels. When accounting for the combined influences of penultimate and LIG deglaciation on glacial isostatic adjustment, this excess loss of polar ice during the LIG can explain much of the relative sea level recorded by fossil coral reefs and speleothems at intermediate- and far-field sites.