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Scientists nail down average temperature of last ice age 新闻
来源平台:National Center of Atmospheric Research. 发布日期:2020
作者:  admin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:0/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/28
Ice retreat in Wilkes Basin of East Antarctica during a warm interglacial 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 583 (7817) : 554-+
作者:  T. Blackburn;  G. H. Edwards;  S. Tulaczyk;  M. Scudder;  G. Piccione;  B. Hallet;  N. McLean;  J. C. Zachos;  B. Cheney;  J. T. Babbe
收藏  |  浏览/下载:21/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/09

Uranium isotopes in subglacial precipitates from the Wilkes Basin of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet reveal ice retreat during a warm Pleistocene interglacial period about 400,000 years ago.


Efforts to improve sea level forecasting on a warming planet have focused on determining the temperature, sea level and extent of polar ice sheets during Earth'  s past interglacial warm periods(1-3). About 400,000 years ago, during the interglacial period known as Marine Isotopic Stage 11 (MIS11), the global temperature was 1 to 2 degrees Celsius greater(2)and sea level was 6 to 13 metres higher(1,3). Sea level estimates in excess of about 10 metres, however, have been discounted because these require a contribution from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet(3), which has been argued to have remained stable for millions of years before and includes MIS11(4,5). Here we show how the evolution of(234)U enrichment within the subglacial waters of East Antarctica recorded the ice sheet'  s response to MIS11 warming. Within the Wilkes Basin, subglacial chemical precipitates of opal and calcite record accumulation of(234)U (the product of rock-water contact within an isolated subglacial reservoir) up to 20 times higher than that found in marine waters. The timescales of(234)U enrichment place the inception of this reservoir at MIS11. Informed by the(234)U cycling observed in the Laurentide Ice Sheet, where(234)U accumulated during periods of ice stability(6)and was flushed to global oceans in response to deglaciation(7), we interpret our East Antarctic dataset to represent ice loss within the Wilkes Basin at MIS11. The(234)U accumulation within the Wilkes Basin is also observed in the McMurdo Dry Valleys brines(8-10), indicating(11)that the brine originated beneath the adjacent East Antarctic Ice Sheet. The marine origin of brine salts(10)and bacteria(12)implies that MIS11 ice loss was coupled with marine flooding. Collectively, these data indicate that during one of the warmest Pleistocene interglacials, the ice sheet margin at the Wilkes Basin retreated to near the precipitate location, about 700 kilometres inland from the current position of the ice margin, which-assuming current ice volumes-would have contributed about 3 to 4 metres(13)to global sea levels.


  
Potential for large-scale CO2 removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 583 (7815) : 242-+
作者:  David J. Beerling;  Euripides P. Kantzas;  Mark R. Lomas;  Peter Wade;  Rafael M. Eufrasio;  Phil Renforth;  Binoy Sarkar;  M. Grace Andrews;  Rachael H. James;  Christopher R. Pearce;  Jean-Francois Mercure;  Hector Pollitt;  Philip B. Holden;  Neil R. Edwards;  Madhu Khanna;  Lenny Koh;  Shaun Quegan;  Nick F. Pidgeon;  Ivan A. Janssens;  James Hansen;  Steven A. Banwart
收藏  |  浏览/下载:18/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/14

Enhanced silicate rock weathering (ERW), deployable with croplands, has potential use for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR), which is now necessary to mitigate anthropogenic climate change(1). ERW also has possible co-benefits for improved food and soil security, and reduced ocean acidification(2-4). Here we use an integrated performance modelling approach to make an initial techno-economic assessment for 2050, quantifying how CDR potential and costs vary among nations in relation to business-as-usual energy policies and policies consistent with limiting future warming to 2 degrees Celsius(5). China, India, the USA and Brazil have great potential to help achieve average global CDR goals of 0.5 to 2gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year with extraction costs of approximately US$80-180 per tonne of CO2. These goals and costs are robust, regardless of future energy policies. Deployment within existing croplands offers opportunities to align agriculture and climate policy. However, success will depend upon overcoming political and social inertia to develop regulatory and incentive frameworks. We discuss the challenges and opportunities of ERW deployment, including the potential for excess industrial silicate materials (basalt mine overburden, concrete, and iron and steel slag) to obviate the need for new mining, as well as uncertainties in soil weathering rates and land-ocean transfer of weathered products.


  
Simulation of past climate shows recent models may be too sensitive to carbon dioxide 新闻
来源平台:National Center of Atmospheric Research. 发布日期:2020
作者:  admin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:1/0  |  提交时间:2020/06/16
Arctic Ocean likely to become ice-free in the summer for first time before 2050 新闻
来源平台:National Center of Atmospheric Research. 发布日期:2020
作者:  admin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/06/16
The past and future of global river ice 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 69-+
作者:  Yang, Xiao;  Pavelsky, Tamlin M.;  Allen, George H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:7/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

More than one-third of Earth'  s landmass is drained by rivers that seasonally freeze over. Ice transforms the hydrologic(1,2), ecologic(3,4), climatic(5) and socio-economic(6-8) functions of river corridors. Although river ice extent has been shown to be declining in many regions of the world(1), the seasonality, historical change and predicted future changes in river ice extent and duration have not yet been quantified globally. Previous studies of river ice, which suggested that declines in extent and duration could be attributed to warming temperatures(9,10), were based on data from sparse locations. Furthermore, existing projections of future ice extent are based solely on the location of the 0-degrees C isotherm11. Here, using satellite observations, we show that the global extent of river ice is declining, and we project a mean decrease in seasonal ice duration of 6.10 +/- 0.08 days per 1-degrees C increase in global mean surface air temperature. We tracked the extent of river ice using over 400,000 clear-sky Landsat images spanning 1984-2018 and observed a mean decline of 2.5 percentage points globally in the past three decades. To project future changes in river ice extent, we developed an observationally calibrated and validated model, based on temperature and season, which reduced the mean bias by 87 per cent compared with the 0-degree-Celsius isotherm approach. We applied this model to future climate projections for 2080-2100: compared with 2009-2029, the average river ice duration declines by 16.7 days under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, whereas under RCP 4.5 it declines on average by 7.3 days. Our results show that, globally, river ice is measurably declining and will continue to decline linearly with projected increases in surface air temperature towards the end of this century.