GSTDTAP

浏览/检索结果: 共2条,第1-2条 帮助

限定条件        
已选(0)清除 条数/页:   排序方式:
Population flow drives spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 in China 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020
作者:  Fernandez, Diego Carlos;  Komal, Ruchi;  Langel, Jennifer;  Ma, Jun;  Duy, Phan Q.;  Penzo, Mario A.;  Zhao, Haiqing;  Hattar, Samer
收藏  |  浏览/下载:69/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Sudden, large-scale and diffuse human migration can amplify localized outbreaks of disease into widespread epidemics(1-4). Rapid and accurate tracking of aggregate population flows may therefore be epidemiologically informative. Here we use 11,478,484 counts of mobile phone data from individuals leaving or transiting through the prefecture of Wuhan between 1 January and 24 January 2020 as they moved to 296 prefectures throughout mainland China. First, we document the efficacy of quarantine in ceasing movement. Second, we show that the distribution of population outflow from Wuhan accurately predicts the relative frequency and geographical distribution of infections with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) until 19 February 2020, across mainland China. Third, we develop a spatio-temporal '  risk source'  model that leverages population flow data (which operationalize the risk that emanates from epidemic epicentres) not only to forecast the distribution of confirmed cases, but also to identify regions that have a high risk of transmission at an early stage. Fourth, we use this risk source model to statistically derive the geographical spread of COVID-19 and the growth pattern based on the population outflow from Wuhan  the model yields a benchmark trend and an index for assessing the risk of community transmission of COVID-19 over time for different locations. This approach can be used by policy-makers in any nation with available data to make rapid and accurate risk assessments and to plan the allocation of limited resources ahead of ongoing outbreaks.


Modelling of population flows in China enables the forecasting of the distribution of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and the identification of areas at high risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission at an early stage.


  
Stiffness of the human foot and evolution of the transverse arch 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020
作者:  Fujioka, Yuko;  Alam, Jahangir Md.;  Noshiro, Daisuke;  Mouri, Kazunari;  Ando, Toshio;  Okada, Yasushi;  May, Alexander I.;  Knorr, Roland L.;  Suzuki, Kuninori;  Ohsumi, Yoshinori;  Noda, Nobuo N.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

The transverse tarsal arch, acting through the inter-metatarsal tissues, is important for the longitudinal stiffness of the foot and its appearance is a key step in the evolution of human bipedalism.


The stiff human foot enables an efficient push-off when walking or running, and was critical for the evolution of bipedalism(1-6). The uniquely arched morphology of the human midfoot is thought to stiffen it(5-9), whereas other primates have flat feet that bend severely in the midfoot(7,10,11). However, the relationship between midfoot geometry and stiffness remains debated in foot biomechanics(12,13), podiatry(14,15) and palaeontology(4-6). These debates centre on the medial longitudinal arch(5,6) and have not considered whether stiffness is affected by the second, transverse tarsal arch of the human foot(16). Here we show that the transverse tarsal arch, acting through the inter-metatarsal tissues, is responsible for more than 40% of the longitudinal stiffness of the foot. The underlying principle resembles a floppy currency note that stiffens considerably when it curls transversally. We derive a dimensionless curvature parameter that governs the stiffness contribution of the transverse tarsal arch, demonstrate its predictive power using mechanical models of the foot and find its skeletal correlate in hominin feet. In the foot, the material properties of the inter-metatarsal tissues and the mobility of the metatarsals may additionally influence the longitudinal stiffness of the foot and thus the curvature-stiffness relationship of the transverse tarsal arch. By analysing fossils, we track the evolution of the curvature parameter among extinct hominins and show that a human-like transverse arch was a key step in the evolution of human bipedalism that predates the genus Homo by at least 1.5 million years. This renewed understanding of the foot may improve the clinical treatment of flatfoot disorders, the design of robotic feet and the study of foot function in locomotion.