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Current European flood-rich period exceptional compared with past 500 years 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 583 (7817) : 560-+
作者:  ;  nter Blö;  schl;  Andrea Kiss;  Alberto Viglione;  Mariano Barriendos;  Oliver Bö;  hm;  Rudolf Brá;  zdil;  Denis Coeur;  Gaston Demaré;  e;  Maria Carmen Llasat;  Neil Macdonald;  Dag Retsö;  Lars Roald;  Petra Schmocker-Fackel;  Inê;  s Amorim;  Monika Bě;  ;  nová;  Gerardo Benito;  Chiara Bertolin;  Dario Camuffo;  Daniel Cornel;  Radosł;  aw Doktor;  ;  bor Elleder;  Silvia Enzi;  Joã;  o Carlos Garcia;  ;  diger Glaser;  Julia Hall;  Klaus Haslinger;  Michael Hofstä;  tter;  ;  rgen Komma;  Danuta Limanó;  wka;  David Lun;  Andrei Panin;  Juraj Parajka;  Hrvoje Petrić;  Fernando S. Rodrigo;  Christian Rohr;  Johannes Schö;  nbein;  Lothar Schulte;  Luí;  s Pedro Silva;  Willem H. J. Toonen;  Peter Valent;  ;  rgen Waser;  Oliver Wetter
收藏  |  浏览/下载:40/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/09

There are concerns that recent climate change is altering the frequency and magnitude of river floods in an unprecedented way(1). Historical studies have identified flood-rich periods in the past half millennium in various regions of Europe(2). However, because of the low temporal resolution of existing datasets and the relatively low number of series, it has remained unclear whether Europe is currently in a flood-rich period from a long-term perspective. Here we analyse how recent decades compare with the flood history of Europe, using a new database composed of more than 100 high-resolution (sub-annual) historical flood series based on documentary evidence covering all major regions of Europe. We show that the past three decades were among the most flood-rich periods in Europe in the past 500 years, and that this period differs from other flood-rich periods in terms of its extent, air temperatures and flood seasonality. We identified nine flood-rich periods and associated regions. Among the periods richest in floods are 1560-1580 (western and central Europe), 1760-1800 (most of Europe), 1840-1870 (western and southern Europe) and 1990-2016 (western and central Europe). In most parts of Europe, previous flood-rich periods occurred during cooler-than-usual phases, but the current flood-rich period has been much warmer. Flood seasonality is also more pronounced in the recent period. For example, during previous flood and interflood periods, 41 per cent and 42 per cent of central European floods occurred in summer, respectively, compared with 55 per cent of floods in the recent period. The exceptional nature of the present-day flood-rich period calls for process-based tools for flood-risk assessment that capture the physical mechanisms involved, and management strategies that can incorporate the recent changes in risk.


Analysis of thousands of historical documents recording floods in Europe shows that flooding characteristics in recent decades are unlike those of previous centuries.


  
Frequent mutations that converge on the NFKBIZ pathway in ulcerative colitis 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7789) : 260-+
作者:  Kakiuchi, Nobuyuki;  Yoshida, Kenichi;  Uchino, Motoi;  Kihara, Takako;  Akaki, Kotaro;  Inoue, Yoshikage;  Kawada, Kenji;  Nagayama, Satoshi;  Yokoyama, Akira;  Yamamoto, Shuji;  Matsuura, Minoru;  Horimatsu, Takahiro;  Hirano, Tomonori;  Goto, Norihiro;  Takeuchi, Yasuhide;  Ochi, Yotaro;  Shiozawa, Yusuke;  Kogure, Yasunori;  Watatani, Yosaku;  Fujii, Yoichi;  Kim, Soo Ki;  Kon, Ayana;  Kataoka, Keisuke;  Yoshizato, Tetsuichi;  Nakagawa, Masahiro M.;  Yoda, Akinori;  Nanya, Yasuhito;  Makishima, Hideki;  Shiraishi, Yuichi;  Chiba, Kenichi;  Tanaka, Hiroko;  Sanada, Masashi;  Sugihara, Eiji;  Sato, Taka-aki;  Maruyama, Takashi;  Miyoshi, Hiroyuki;  Taketo, Makoto Mark;  Oishi, Jun;  Inagaki, Ryosaku;  Ueda, Yutaka;  Okamoto, Shinya;  Okajima, Hideaki;  Sakai, Yoshiharu;  Sakurai, Takaki;  Haga, Hironori;  Hirota, Seiichi;  Ikeuchi, Hiroki;  Nakase, Hiroshi;  Marusawa, Hiroyuki;  Chiba, Tsutomu;  Takeuchi, Osamu;  Miyano, Satoru;  Seno, Hiroshi;  Ogawa, Seishi
收藏  |  浏览/下载:78/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Chronic inflammation is accompanied by recurring cycles of tissue destruction and repair and is associated with an increased risk of cancer(1-3). However, how such cycles affect the clonal composition of tissues, particularly in terms of cancer development, remains unknown. Here we show that in patients with ulcerative colitis, the inflamed intestine undergoes widespread remodelling by pervasive clones, many of which are positively selected by acquiring mutations that commonly involve the NFKBIZ, TRAF3IP2, ZC3H12A, PIGR and HNRNPF genes and are implicated in the downregulation of IL-17 and other pro-inflammatory signals. Mutational profiles vary substantially between colitis-associated cancer and non-dysplastic tissues in ulcerative colitis, which indicates that there are distinct mechanisms of positive selection in both tissues. In particular, mutations in NFKBIZ are highly prevalent in the epithelium of patients with ulcerative colitis but rarely found in both sporadic and colitis-associated cancer, indicating that NFKBIZ-mutant cells are selected against during colorectal carcinogenesis. In further support of this negative selection, we found that tumour formation was significantly attenuated in Nfkbiz-mutant mice and cell competition was compromised by disruption of NFKBIZ in human colorectal cancer cells. Our results highlight common and discrete mechanisms of clonal selection in inflammatory tissues, which reveal unexpected cancer vulnerabilities that could potentially be exploited for therapeutics in colorectal cancer.


  
Rapid growth of new atmospheric particles by nitric acid and ammonia condensation 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 581 (7807) : 184-+
作者:  Liang, Guanxiang;  Zhao, Chunyu;  Zhang, Huanjia;  Mattei, Lisa;  Sherrill-Mix, Scott;  Bittinger, Kyle;  Kessler, Lyanna R.;  Wu, Gary D.;  Baldassano, Robert N.;  DeRusso, Patricia;  Ford, Eileen;  Elovitz, Michal A.;  Kelly, Matthew S.;  Patel, Mohamed Z.;  Mazhani, Tiny;  Gerber, Jeffrey S.;  Kelly, Andrea;  Zemel, Babette S.;  Bushman, Frederic D.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:17/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/20

A list of authors and their affiliations appears at the end of the paper New-particle formation is a major contributor to urban smog(1,2), but how it occurs in cities is often puzzling(3). If the growth rates of urban particles are similar to those found in cleaner environments (1-10 nanometres per hour), then existing understanding suggests that new urban particles should be rapidly scavenged by the high concentration of pre-existing particles. Here we show, through experiments performed under atmospheric conditions in the CLOUD chamber at CERN, that below about +5 degrees Celsius, nitric acid and ammonia vapours can condense onto freshly nucleated particles as small as a few nanometres in diameter. Moreover, when it is cold enough (below -15 degrees Celsius), nitric acid and ammonia can nucleate directly through an acid-base stabilization mechanism to form ammonium nitrate particles. Given that these vapours are often one thousand times more abundant than sulfuric acid, the resulting particle growth rates can be extremely high, reaching well above 100 nanometres per hour. However, these high growth rates require the gas-particle ammonium nitrate system to be out of equilibrium in order to sustain gas-phase supersaturations. In view of the strong temperature dependence that we measure for the gas-phase supersaturations, we expect such transient conditions to occur in inhomogeneous urban settings, especially in wintertime, driven by vertical mixing and by strong local sources such as traffic. Even though rapid growth from nitric acid and ammonia condensation may last for only a few minutes, it is nonetheless fast enough to shepherd freshly nucleated particles through the smallest size range where they are most vulnerable to scavenging loss, thus greatly increasing their survival probability. We also expect nitric acid and ammonia nucleation and rapid growth to be important in the relatively clean and cold upper free troposphere, where ammonia can be convected from the continental boundary layer and nitric acid is abundant from electrical storms(4,5).


  
Infrared spectroscopy finally sees the light 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 34-35
作者:  Barth, Andreas
收藏  |  浏览/下载:0/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03
Population flow drives spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 in China 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020
作者:  Fernandez, Diego Carlos;  Komal, Ruchi;  Langel, Jennifer;  Ma, Jun;  Duy, Phan Q.;  Penzo, Mario A.;  Zhao, Haiqing;  Hattar, Samer
收藏  |  浏览/下载:69/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Sudden, large-scale and diffuse human migration can amplify localized outbreaks of disease into widespread epidemics(1-4). Rapid and accurate tracking of aggregate population flows may therefore be epidemiologically informative. Here we use 11,478,484 counts of mobile phone data from individuals leaving or transiting through the prefecture of Wuhan between 1 January and 24 January 2020 as they moved to 296 prefectures throughout mainland China. First, we document the efficacy of quarantine in ceasing movement. Second, we show that the distribution of population outflow from Wuhan accurately predicts the relative frequency and geographical distribution of infections with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) until 19 February 2020, across mainland China. Third, we develop a spatio-temporal '  risk source'  model that leverages population flow data (which operationalize the risk that emanates from epidemic epicentres) not only to forecast the distribution of confirmed cases, but also to identify regions that have a high risk of transmission at an early stage. Fourth, we use this risk source model to statistically derive the geographical spread of COVID-19 and the growth pattern based on the population outflow from Wuhan  the model yields a benchmark trend and an index for assessing the risk of community transmission of COVID-19 over time for different locations. This approach can be used by policy-makers in any nation with available data to make rapid and accurate risk assessments and to plan the allocation of limited resources ahead of ongoing outbreaks.


Modelling of population flows in China enables the forecasting of the distribution of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and the identification of areas at high risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission at an early stage.


  
The fate of carbon in a mature forest under carbon dioxide enrichment 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7802) : 227-+
作者:  Sun, P. Z.;  Yang, Q.;  Kuang, W. J.;  Stebunov, Y. V.;  Xiong, W. Q.;  Yu, J.;  Nair, R. R.;  Katsnelson, M. I.;  Yuan, S. J.;  Grigorieva, I. V.;  Lozada-Hidalgo, M.;  Wang, F. C.;  Geim, A. K.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:70/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

Carbon dioxide enrichment of a mature forest resulted in the emission of the excess carbon back into the atmosphere via enhanced ecosystem respiration, suggesting that mature forests may be limited in their capacity to mitigate climate change.


Atmospheric carbon dioxide enrichment (eCO(2)) can enhance plant carbon uptake and growth(1-5), thereby providing an important negative feedback to climate change by slowing the rate of increase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration(6). Although evidence gathered from young aggrading forests has generally indicated a strong CO2 fertilization effect on biomass growth(3-5), it is unclear whether mature forests respond to eCO(2) in a similar way. In mature trees and forest stands(7-10), photosynthetic uptake has been found to increase under eCO(2) without any apparent accompanying growth response, leaving the fate of additional carbon fixed under eCO(2) unclear(4,5,7-11). Here using data from the first ecosystem-scale Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment in a mature forest, we constructed a comprehensive ecosystem carbon budget to track the fate of carbon as the forest responded to four years of eCO(2) exposure. We show that, although the eCO(2) treatment of +150 parts per million (+38 per cent) above ambient levels induced a 12 per cent (+247 grams of carbon per square metre per year) increase in carbon uptake through gross primary production, this additional carbon uptake did not lead to increased carbon sequestration at the ecosystem level. Instead, the majority of the extra carbon was emitted back into the atmosphere via several respiratory fluxes, with increased soil respiration alone accounting for half of the total uptake surplus. Our results call into question the predominant thinking that the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks will be generally enhanced under eCO(2), and challenge the efficacy of climate mitigation strategies that rely on ubiquitous CO2 fertilization as a driver of increased carbon sinks in global forests.


  
Base-pair conformational switch modulates miR-34a targeting of Sirt1 mRNA 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 583 (7814) : 139-+
作者:  Muniz, Juan A.;  Barberena, Diego;  Lewis-Swan, Robert J.;  Young, Dylan J.;  Cline, Julia R. K.;  Rey, Ana Maria;  Thompson, James K.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:22/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) regulate the levels of translation of messenger RNAs (mRNAs). At present, the major parameter that can explain the selection of the target mRNA and the efficiency of translation repression is the base pairing between the '  seed'  region of the miRNA and its counterpart mRNA(1). Here we use R-1 rho relaxation-dispersion nuclear magnetic resonance(2) and molecular simulations(3) to reveal a dynamic switch-based on the rearrangement of a single base pair in the miRNA-mRNA duplex-that elongates a weak five-base-pair seed to a complete seven-base-pair seed. This switch also causes coaxial stacking of the seed and supplementary helix fitting into human Argonaute 2 protein (Ago2), reminiscent of an active state in prokaryotic Ago(4,5). Stabilizing this transient state leads to enhanced repression of the target mRNA in cells, revealing the importance of this miRNA-mRNA structure. Our observations tie together previous findings regarding the stepwise miRNA targeting process from an initial '  screening'  state to an '  active'  state, and unveil the role of the RNA duplex beyond the seed in Ago2.


Repression of a messenger RNA by a cognate microRNA depends not only on complementary base pairing, but also on the rearrangement of a single base pair, producing a conformation that fits better within the human Ago2 protein.


  
Variability in the analysis of a single neuroimaging dataset by many teams 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020
作者:  Liu, Jifeng;  Soria, Roberto;  Zheng, Zheng;  Zhang, Haotong;  Lu, Youjun;  Wang, Song;  Yuan, Hailong
收藏  |  浏览/下载:22/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Data analysis workflows in many scientific domains have become increasingly complex and flexible. Here we assess the effect of this flexibility on the results of functional magnetic resonance imaging by asking 70 independent teams to analyse the same dataset, testing the same 9 ex-ante hypotheses(1). The flexibility of analytical approaches is exemplified by the fact that no two teams chose identical workflows to analyse the data. This flexibility resulted in sizeable variation in the results of hypothesis tests, even for teams whose statistical maps were highly correlated at intermediate stages of the analysis pipeline. Variation in reported results was related to several aspects of analysis methodology. Notably, a meta-analytical approach that aggregated information across teams yielded a significant consensus in activated regions. Furthermore, prediction markets of researchers in the field revealed an overestimation of the likelihood of significant findings, even by researchers with direct knowledge of the dataset(2-5). Our findings show that analytical flexibility can have substantial effects on scientific conclusions, and identify factors that may be related to variability in the analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging. The results emphasize the importance of validating and sharing complex analysis workflows, and demonstrate the need for performing and reporting multiple analyses of the same data. Potential approaches that could be used to mitigate issues related to analytical variability are discussed.


The results obtained by seventy different teams analysing the same functional magnetic resonance imaging dataset show substantial variation, highlighting the influence of analytical choices and the importance of sharing workflows publicly and performing multiple analyses.


  
Temperate rainforests near the South Pole during peak Cretaceous warmth 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7801) : 81-+
作者:  Johann P. Klages;  Ulrich Salzmann;  Torsten Bickert;  Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand;  Karsten Gohl;  Gerhard Kuhn;  Steven M. Bohaty;  ;  rgen Titschack;  Juliane Mü;  ller;  Thomas Frederichs;  Thorsten Bauersachs;  Werner Ehrmann;  Tina van de Flierdt;  Patric Simõ;  es Pereira;  Robert D. Larter;  Gerrit Lohmann;  Igor Niezgodzki;  Gabriele Uenzelmann-Neben;  Maximilian Zundel;  Cornelia Spiegel;  Chris Mark;  David Chew;  Jane E. Francis;  Gernot Nehrke;  Florian Schwarz;  James A. Smith;  Tim Freudenthal;  Oliver Esper;  Heiko Pä;  like;  Thomas A. Ronge;  Ricarda Dziadek
收藏  |  浏览/下载:12/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

The mid-Cretaceous period was one of the warmest intervals of the past 140 million years(1-5), driven by atmospheric carbon dioxide levels of around 1,000 parts per million by volume(6). In the near absence of proximal geological records from south of the Antarctic Circle, it is disputed whether polar ice could exist under such environmental conditions. Here we use a sedimentary sequence recovered from the West Antarctic shelf-the southernmost Cretaceous record reported so far-and show that a temperate lowland rainforest environment existed at a palaeolatitude of about 82 degrees S during the Turonian-Santonian age (92 to 83 million years ago). This record contains an intact 3-metre-long network of in situ fossil roots embedded in a mudstone matrix containing diverse pollen and spores. A climate model simulation shows that the reconstructed temperate climate at this high latitude requires a combination of both atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of 1,120-1,680 parts per million by volume and a vegetated land surface without major Antarctic glaciation, highlighting the important cooling effect exerted by ice albedo under high levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.


  
Submicrosecond entangling gate between trapped ions via Rydberg interaction 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7803) : 345-+
作者:  Chatterjee, Sourav;  Guidi, Mara;  Seeberger, Peter H.;  Gilmore, Kerry
收藏  |  浏览/下载:16/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Generating quantum entanglement in large systems on timescales much shorter than the coherence time is key to powerful quantum simulation and computation. Trapped ions are among the most accurately controlled and best isolated quantum systems(1) with low-error entanglement gates operated within tens of microseconds using the vibrational motion of few-ion crystals(2,3). To exceed the level of complexity tractable by classical computers the main challenge is to realize fast entanglement operations in crystals made up of many ions (large ion crystals)(4). The strong dipole-dipole interactions in polar molecule(5) and Rydberg atom(6,7) systems allow much faster entangling gates, yet stable state-independent confinement comparable with trapped ions needs to be demonstrated in these systems(8). Here we combine the benefits of these approaches: we report a two-ion entangling gate with 700-nanosecond gate time that uses the strong dipolar interaction between trapped Rydberg ions, which we use to produce a Bell state with 78 per cent fidelity. The sources of gate error are identified and a total error of less than 0.2 per cent is predicted for experimentally achievable parameters. Furthermore, we predict that residual coupling to motional modes contributes an approximate gate error of 10(-4) in a large ion crystal of 100 ions. This provides a way to speed up and scale up trapped-ion quantum computers and simulators substantially.