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Current European flood-rich period exceptional compared with past 500 years 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 583 (7817) : 560-+
作者:  ;  nter Blö;  schl;  Andrea Kiss;  Alberto Viglione;  Mariano Barriendos;  Oliver Bö;  hm;  Rudolf Brá;  zdil;  Denis Coeur;  Gaston Demaré;  e;  Maria Carmen Llasat;  Neil Macdonald;  Dag Retsö;  Lars Roald;  Petra Schmocker-Fackel;  Inê;  s Amorim;  Monika Bě;  ;  nová;  Gerardo Benito;  Chiara Bertolin;  Dario Camuffo;  Daniel Cornel;  Radosł;  aw Doktor;  ;  bor Elleder;  Silvia Enzi;  Joã;  o Carlos Garcia;  ;  diger Glaser;  Julia Hall;  Klaus Haslinger;  Michael Hofstä;  tter;  ;  rgen Komma;  Danuta Limanó;  wka;  David Lun;  Andrei Panin;  Juraj Parajka;  Hrvoje Petrić;  Fernando S. Rodrigo;  Christian Rohr;  Johannes Schö;  nbein;  Lothar Schulte;  Luí;  s Pedro Silva;  Willem H. J. Toonen;  Peter Valent;  ;  rgen Waser;  Oliver Wetter
收藏  |  浏览/下载:40/0  |  提交时间:2020/08/09

There are concerns that recent climate change is altering the frequency and magnitude of river floods in an unprecedented way(1). Historical studies have identified flood-rich periods in the past half millennium in various regions of Europe(2). However, because of the low temporal resolution of existing datasets and the relatively low number of series, it has remained unclear whether Europe is currently in a flood-rich period from a long-term perspective. Here we analyse how recent decades compare with the flood history of Europe, using a new database composed of more than 100 high-resolution (sub-annual) historical flood series based on documentary evidence covering all major regions of Europe. We show that the past three decades were among the most flood-rich periods in Europe in the past 500 years, and that this period differs from other flood-rich periods in terms of its extent, air temperatures and flood seasonality. We identified nine flood-rich periods and associated regions. Among the periods richest in floods are 1560-1580 (western and central Europe), 1760-1800 (most of Europe), 1840-1870 (western and southern Europe) and 1990-2016 (western and central Europe). In most parts of Europe, previous flood-rich periods occurred during cooler-than-usual phases, but the current flood-rich period has been much warmer. Flood seasonality is also more pronounced in the recent period. For example, during previous flood and interflood periods, 41 per cent and 42 per cent of central European floods occurred in summer, respectively, compared with 55 per cent of floods in the recent period. The exceptional nature of the present-day flood-rich period calls for process-based tools for flood-risk assessment that capture the physical mechanisms involved, and management strategies that can incorporate the recent changes in risk.


Analysis of thousands of historical documents recording floods in Europe shows that flooding characteristics in recent decades are unlike those of previous centuries.


  
REPRODUCIBILITY AND MENTAL HEALTH 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 582 (7811) : 300-300
作者:  Trimble, Virginia
收藏  |  浏览/下载:4/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

An inability to focus during a weekend trip forced Jeff Clements to ponder often-overlooked drivers of academic mental health.


An inability to focus during a weekend trip forced Jeff Clements to ponder often-overlooked drivers of academic mental health. Credit: Kiatanan Sugsompian/Getty


  
Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7797) : 80-+
作者:  Wannes Hubau;  Simon L. Lewis;  Oliver L. Phillips;  Kofi Affum-Baffoe;  Hans Beeckman;  Aida Cuní;  -Sanchez;  Armandu K. Daniels;  Corneille E. N. Ewango;  Sophie Fauset;  Jacques M. Mukinzi;  Douglas Sheil;  Bonaventure Sonké;  Martin J. P. Sullivan;  Terry C. H. Sunderland;  Hermann Taedoumg;  Sean C. Thomas;  Lee J. T. White;  Katharine A. Abernethy;  Stephen Adu-Bredu;  Christian A. Amani;  Timothy R. Baker;  Lindsay F. Banin;  Fidè;  le Baya;  Serge K. Begne;  Amy C. Bennett;  Fabrice Benedet;  Robert Bitariho;  Yannick E. Bocko;  Pascal Boeckx;  Patrick Boundja;  Roel J. W. Brienen;  Terry Brncic;  Eric Chezeaux;  George B. Chuyong;  Connie J. Clark;  Murray Collins;  James A. Comiskey;  David A. Coomes;  Greta C. Dargie;  Thales de Haulleville;  Marie Noel Djuikouo Kamdem;  Jean-Louis Doucet;  Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert;  Ted R. Feldpausch;  Alusine Fofanah;  Ernest G. Foli;  Martin Gilpin;  Emanuel Gloor;  Christelle Gonmadje;  Sylvie Gourlet-Fleury;  Jefferson S. Hall;  Alan C. Hamilton;  David J. Harris;  Terese B. Hart;  Mireille B. N. Hockemba;  Annette Hladik;  Suspense A. Ifo;  Kathryn J. Jeffery;  Tommaso Jucker;  Emmanuel Kasongo Yakusu;  Elizabeth Kearsley;  David Kenfack;  Alexander Koch;  Miguel E. Leal;  Aurora Levesley;  Jeremy A. Lindsell;  Janvier Lisingo;  Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez;  Jon C. Lovett;  Jean-Remy Makana;  Yadvinder Malhi;  Andrew R. Marshall;  Jim Martin;  Emanuel H. Martin;  Faustin M. Mbayu;  Vincent P. Medjibe;  Vianet Mihindou;  Edward T. A. Mitchard;  Sam Moore;  Pantaleo K. T. Munishi;  Natacha Nssi Bengone;  Lucas Ojo;  Fidè;  le Evouna Ondo;  Kelvin S.-H. Peh;  Georgia C. Pickavance;  Axel Dalberg Poulsen;  John R. Poulsen;  Lan Qie;  Jan Reitsma;  Francesco Rovero;  Michael D. Swaine;  Joey Talbot;  James Taplin;  David M. Taylor;  Duncan W. Thomas;  Benjamin Toirambe;  John Tshibamba Mukendi;  Darlington Tuagben;  Peter M. Umunay;  Geertje M. F. van der Heijden;  Hans Verbeeck;  Jason Vleminckx;  Simon Willcock;  Hannsjö;  rg Wö;  ll;  John T. Woods;  Lise Zemagho
收藏  |  浏览/下载:23/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered about half of the global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing about 15 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions(1-3). Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this tropical forest '  carbon sink'  will continue for decades(4,5). Here we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year (95 per cent confidence interval 0.53-0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests(6). Therefore the carbon sink responses of Earth'  s two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected net effect of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperature(7-9). Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our most intensively monitored plots suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including carbon dioxide, temperature, drought and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, whereas the Amazonian sink continues to weaken rapidly. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth'  s intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, independent observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern Hemisphere landmass(10) reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already peaked. This saturation and ongoing decline of the tropical forest carbon sink has consequences for policies intended to stabilize Earth'  s climate.


  
Germline Elongator mutations in Sonic Hedgehog medulloblastoma 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7803) : 396-+
作者:  Helmrich, S.;  Arias, A.;  Lochead, G.;  Wintermantel, T. M.;  Buchhold, M.;  Diehl, S.;  Whitlock, S.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:15/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Cancer genomics has revealed many genes and core molecular processes that contribute to human malignancies, but the genetic and molecular bases of many rare cancers remains unclear. Genetic predisposition accounts for 5 to 10% of cancer diagnoses in children(1,2), and genetic events that cooperate with known somatic driver events are poorly understood. Pathogenic germline variants in established cancer predisposition genes have been recently identified in 5% of patients with the malignant brain tumour medulloblastoma(3). Here, by analysing all protein-coding genes, we identify and replicate rare germline loss-of-function variants across ELP1 in 14% of paediatric patients with the medulloblastoma subgroup Sonic Hedgehog (MBSHH). ELP1 was the most common medulloblastoma predisposition gene and increased the prevalence of genetic predisposition to 40% among paediatric patients with MBSHH. Parent-offspring and pedigree analyses identified two families with a history of paediatric medulloblastoma. ELP1-associated medulloblastomas were restricted to the molecular SHH alpha subtype(4) and characterized by universal biallelic inactivation of ELP1 owing to somatic loss of chromosome arm 9q. Most ELP1-associated medulloblastomas also exhibited somatic alterations in PTCH1, which suggests that germline ELP1 loss-of-function variants predispose individuals to tumour development in combination with constitutive activation of SHH signalling. ELP1 is the largest subunit of the evolutionarily conserved Elongator complex, which catalyses translational elongation through tRNA modifications at the wobble (U-34) position(5,6). Tumours from patients with ELP1-associated MBSHH were characterized by a destabilized Elongator complex, loss of Elongator-dependent tRNA modifications, codon-dependent translational reprogramming, and induction of the unfolded protein response, consistent with loss of protein homeostasis due to Elongator deficiency in model systems(7-9). Thus, genetic predisposition to proteome instability may be a determinant in the pathogenesis of paediatric brain cancers. These results support investigation of the role of protein homeostasis in other cancer types and potential for therapeutic interference.


  
Tracking of marine predators to protect Southern Ocean ecosystems 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020
作者:  Kim, Eugene;  Kerssemakers, Jacob;  Shaltiel, Indra A.;  Haering, Christian H.;  Dekker, Cees
收藏  |  浏览/下载:19/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Tracking data from 17 marine predator species in the Southern Ocean are used to identify Areas of Ecological Significance, the protection of which could help to mitigate increasing pressures on Southern Ocean ecosystems.


Southern Ocean ecosystems are under pressure from resource exploitation and climate change(1,2). Mitigation requires the identification and protection of Areas of Ecological Significance (AESs), which have so far not been determined at the ocean-basin scale. Here, using assemblage-level tracking of marine predators, we identify AESs for this globally important region and assess current threats and protection levels. Integration of more than 4,000 tracks from 17 bird and mammal species reveals AESs around sub-Antarctic islands in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and over the Antarctic continental shelf. Fishing pressure is disproportionately concentrated inside AESs, and climate change over the next century is predicted to impose pressure on these areas, particularly around the Antarctic continent. At present, 7.1% of the ocean south of 40 degrees S is under formal protection, including 29% of the total AESs. The establishment and regular revision of networks of protection that encompass AESs are needed to provide long-term mitigation of growing pressures on Southern Ocean ecosystems.


  
Ice front blocking of ocean heat transport to an Antarctic ice shelf 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 578 (7796) : 568-+
作者:  Alexandrov, Ludmil B.;  Kim, Jaegil;  Haradhvala, Nicholas J.;  Huang, Mi Ni;  Ng, Alvin Wei Tian;  Wu, Yang;  Boot, Arnoud;  Covington, Kyle R.;  Gordenin, Dmitry A.;  Bergstrom, Erik N.;  Islam, S. M. Ashiqul;  Lopez-Bigas, Nuria;  Klimczak, Leszek J.;  McPherson, John R.;  Morganella, Sandro;  Sabarinathan, Radhakrishnan;  Wheeler, David A.;  Mustonen, Ville;  Getz, Gad;  Rozen, Steven G.;  Stratton, Michael R.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:12/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

The front of the Getz Ice Shelf in West Antarctica creates an abrupt topographic step that deflects ocean currents, suppressing 70% of the heat delivery to the ice sheet.


Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet to the ocean has increased in recent decades, largely because the thinning of its floating ice shelves has allowed the outflow of grounded ice to accelerate(1,2). Enhanced basal melting of the ice shelves is thought to be the ultimate driver of change(2,3), motivating a recent focus on the processes that control ocean heat transport onto and across the seabed of the Antarctic continental shelf towards the ice(4-6). However, the shoreward heat flux typically far exceeds that required to match observed melt rates(2,7,8), suggesting that other critical controls exist. Here we show that the depth-independent (barotropic) component of the heat flow towards an ice shelf is blocked by the marked step shape of the ice front, and that only the depth-varying (baroclinic) component, which is typically much smaller, can enter the sub-ice cavity. Our results arise from direct observations of the Getz Ice Shelf system and laboratory experiments on a rotating platform. A similar blocking of the barotropic component may occur in other areas with comparable ice-bathymetry configurations, which may explain why changes in the density structure of the water column have been found to be a better indicator of basal melt rate variability than the heat transported onto the continental shelf(9). Representing the step topography of the ice front accurately in models is thus important for simulating ocean heat fluxes and induced melt rates.


  
Reply to: Why fossil fuel producer subsidies matter 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 578 (7793) : E5-E7
作者:  Wang, Peng;  Zheng, Yuanlin;  Chen, Xianfeng;  Huang, Changming;  Kartashov, Yaroslav V.;  Torner, Lluis;  Konotop, Vladimir V.;  Ye, Fangwei
收藏  |  浏览/下载:24/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13
Loss of p53 drives neuron reprogramming in head and neck cancer 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 578 (7795) : 449-+
作者:  Lipson, Mark;  39;ane
收藏  |  浏览/下载:23/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

MicroRNAs from head and neck cancer cells, shuttled to sensory neurons by extracellular vesicles, cause a shift to an adrenergic neuronal phenotype that promotes tumour progression.


The solid tumour microenvironment includes nerve fibres that arise from the peripheral nervous system(1,2). Recent work indicates that newly formed adrenergic nerve fibres promote tumour growth, but the origin of these nerves and the mechanism of their inception are unknown(1,3). Here, by comparing the transcriptomes of cancer-associated trigeminal sensory neurons with those of endogenous neurons in mouse models of oral cancer, we identified an adrenergic differentiation signature. We show that loss of TP53 leads to adrenergic transdifferentiation of tumour-associated sensory nerves through loss of the microRNA miR-34a. Tumour growth was inhibited by sensory denervation or pharmacological blockade of adrenergic receptors, but not by chemical sympathectomy of pre-existing adrenergic nerves. A retrospective analysis of samples from oral cancer revealed that p53 status was associated with nerve density, which was in turn associated with poor clinical outcomes. This crosstalk between cancer cells and neurons represents mechanism by which tumour-associated neurons are reprogrammed towards an adrenergic phenotype that can stimulate tumour progression, and is a potential target for anticancer therapy.


  
Ocean acidification does not impair the behaviour of coral reef fishes 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7790) : 370-+
作者:  Clark, Timothy D.;  Raby, Graham D.;  Roche, Dominique G.;  Binning, Sandra A.;  Speers-Roesch, Ben;  Jutfelt, Fredrik;  Sundin, Josefin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

The partial pressure of CO2 in the oceans has increased rapidly over the past century, driving ocean acidification and raising concern for the stability of marine ecosystems(1-3). Coral reef fishes are predicted to be especially susceptible to end-of-century ocean acidification on the basis of several high-profile papers(4,5) that have reported profound behavioural and sensory impairments-for example, complete attraction to the chemical cues of predators under conditions of ocean acidification. Here, we comprehensively and transparently show that-in contrast to previous studies-end-of-century ocean acidification levels have negligible effects on important behaviours of coral reef fishes, such as the avoidance of chemical cues from predators, fish activity levels and behavioural lateralization (left-right turning preference). Using data simulations, we additionally show that the large effect sizes and small within-group variances that have been reported in several previous studies are highly improbable. Together, our findings indicate that the reported effects of ocean acidification on the behaviour of coral reef fishes are not reproducible, suggesting that behavioural perturbations will not be a major consequence for coral reef fishes in high CO2 oceans.


  
Analyses of non-coding somatic drivers in 2,658 cancer whole genomes 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 578 (7793) : 102-+
作者:  Clark, Timothy D.;  Raby, Graham D.;  Roche, Dominique G.;  Binning, Sandra A.;  Speers-Roesch, Ben;  Jutfelt, Fredrik;  Sundin, Josefin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:15/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

The discovery of drivers of cancer has traditionally focused on protein-coding genes(1-4). Here we present analyses of driver point mutations and structural variants in non-coding regions across 2,658 genomes from the Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) Consortium(5) of the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). For point mutations, we developed a statistically rigorous strategy for combining significance levels from multiple methods of driver discovery that overcomes the limitations of individual methods. For structural variants, we present two methods of driver discovery, and identify regions that are significantly affected by recurrent breakpoints and recurrent somatic juxtapositions. Our analyses confirm previously reported drivers(6,7), raise doubts about others and identify novel candidates, including point mutations in the 5'  region of TP53, in the 3'  untranslated regions of NFKBIZ and TOB1, focal deletions in BRD4 and rearrangements in the loci of AKR1C genes. We show that although point mutations and structural variants that drive cancer are less frequent in non-coding genes and regulatory sequences than in protein-coding genes, additional examples of these drivers will be found as more cancer genomes become available.