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Population flow drives spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 in China 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020
作者:  Fernandez, Diego Carlos;  Komal, Ruchi;  Langel, Jennifer;  Ma, Jun;  Duy, Phan Q.;  Penzo, Mario A.;  Zhao, Haiqing;  Hattar, Samer
收藏  |  浏览/下载:69/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Sudden, large-scale and diffuse human migration can amplify localized outbreaks of disease into widespread epidemics(1-4). Rapid and accurate tracking of aggregate population flows may therefore be epidemiologically informative. Here we use 11,478,484 counts of mobile phone data from individuals leaving or transiting through the prefecture of Wuhan between 1 January and 24 January 2020 as they moved to 296 prefectures throughout mainland China. First, we document the efficacy of quarantine in ceasing movement. Second, we show that the distribution of population outflow from Wuhan accurately predicts the relative frequency and geographical distribution of infections with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) until 19 February 2020, across mainland China. Third, we develop a spatio-temporal '  risk source'  model that leverages population flow data (which operationalize the risk that emanates from epidemic epicentres) not only to forecast the distribution of confirmed cases, but also to identify regions that have a high risk of transmission at an early stage. Fourth, we use this risk source model to statistically derive the geographical spread of COVID-19 and the growth pattern based on the population outflow from Wuhan  the model yields a benchmark trend and an index for assessing the risk of community transmission of COVID-19 over time for different locations. This approach can be used by policy-makers in any nation with available data to make rapid and accurate risk assessments and to plan the allocation of limited resources ahead of ongoing outbreaks.


Modelling of population flows in China enables the forecasting of the distribution of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and the identification of areas at high risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission at an early stage.


  
A plant genetic network for preventing dysbiosis in the phyllosphere 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7805) : 653-+
作者:  van den Brink, Susanne C.;  Alemany, Anna;  van Batenburg, Vincent;  Moris, Naomi;  Blotenburg, Marloes;  Vivie, Judith;  Baillie-Johnson, Peter;  Nichols, Jennifer;  Sonnen, Katharina F.;  Martinez Arias, Alfonso;  van Oudenaarden, Alexander
收藏  |  浏览/下载:59/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/03

Mutations in genes involved in immune signalling and vesicle trafficking cause defects in the leaf microbiome of Arabidopsis thaliana that result in damage to leaf tissues, suggesting mechanisms by which terrestrial plants control the level and diversity of endophytic phyllosphere microbiota.


The aboveground parts of terrestrial plants, collectively called the phyllosphere, have a key role in the global balance of atmospheric carbon dioxide and oxygen. The phyllosphere represents one of the most abundant habitats for microbiota colonization. Whether and how plants control phyllosphere microbiota to ensure plant health is not well understood. Here we show that the Arabidopsis quadruple mutant (min7 fls2 efr cerk1  hereafter, mfec)(1), simultaneously defective in pattern-triggered immunity and the MIN7 vesicle-trafficking pathway, or a constitutively activated cell death1 (cad1) mutant, carrying a S205F mutation in a membrane-attack-complex/perforin (MACPF)-domain protein, harbour altered endophytic phyllosphere microbiota and display leaf-tissue damage associated with dysbiosis. The Shannon diversity index and the relative abundance of Firmicutes were markedly reduced, whereas Proteobacteria were enriched in the mfec and cad1(S205F) mutants, bearing cross-kingdom resemblance to some aspects of the dysbiosis that occurs in human inflammatory bowel disease. Bacterial community transplantation experiments demonstrated a causal role of a properly assembled leaf bacterial community in phyllosphere health. Pattern-triggered immune signalling, MIN7 and CAD1 are found in major land plant lineages and are probably key components of a genetic network through which terrestrial plants control the level and nurture the diversity of endophytic phyllosphere microbiota for survival and health in a microorganism-rich environment.


  
Assessing progress towards sustainable development over space and time 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7788) : 74-+
作者:  Xu, Zhenci;  Chau, Sophia N.;  Chen, Xiuzhi;  Zhang, Jian;  Li, Yingjie;  Dietz, Thomas;  Wang, Jinyan;  Winkler, Julie A.;  Fan, Fan;  Huang, Baorong;  Li, Shuxin;  Wu, Shaohua;  Herzberger, Anna;  Tang, Ying;  Hong, Dequ;  Li, Yunkai;  Liu, Jianguo
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

To address global challenges(1-4), 193 countries have committed to the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)(5). Quantifying progress towards achieving the SDGs is essential to track global efforts towards sustainable development and guide policy development and implementation. However, systematic methods for assessing spatio-temporal progress towards achieving the SDGs are lacking. Here we develop and test systematic methods to quantify progress towards the 17 SDGs at national and subnational levels in China. Our analyses indicate that China'  s SDG Index score (an aggregate score representing the overall performance towards achieving all 17 SDGs) increased at the national level from 2000 to 2015. Every province also increased its SDG Index score over this period. There were large spatio-temporal variations across regions. For example, eastern China had a higher SDG Index score than western China in the 2000s, and southern China had a higher SDG Index score than northern China in 2015. At the national level, the scores of 13 of the 17 SDGs improved over time, but the scores of four SDGs declined. This study suggests the need to track the spatio-temporal dynamics of progress towards SDGs at the global level and in other nations.