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Environmental DNA reveals seasonal shifts and potential interactions in a marine community 期刊论文
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, 2020, 11 (1)
作者:  Djurhuus, Anni;  Closek, Collin J.;  Kelly, Ryan P.;  Pitz, Kathleen J.;  Michisaki, Reiko P.;  Starks, Hilary A.;  Walz, Kristine R.;  Andruszkiewicz, Elizabeth A.;  Olesin, Emily;  Hubbard, Katherine;  Montes, Enrique;  Otis, Daniel;  Muller-Karger, Frank E.;  Chavez, Francisco P.;  Boehm, Alexandria B.;  Breitbart, Mya
收藏  |  浏览/下载:15/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13
Complexity-based approach for El Nino magnitude forecasting before the spring predictability barrier 期刊论文
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2020, 117 (1) : 177-183
作者:  Meng, Jun;  Fan, Jingfang;  Ludescher, Josef;  Agarwal, Ankit;  Chen, Xiaosong;  Bunde, Armin;  Kurths, Juergen;  Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13
ENSO  system complexity  entropy  spring barrier  forecasting  
Long-term cyclic persistence in an experimental predator-prey system 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7789) : 226-+
作者:  Blasius, Bernd;  Rudolf, Lars;  Weithoff, Guntram;  Gaedke, Ursula;  Fussmann, Gregor F.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

Predator-prey cycles rank among the most fundamental concepts in ecology, are predicted by the simplest ecological models and enable, theoretically, the indefinite persistence of predator and prey(1-4). However, it remains an open question for how long cyclic dynamics can be self-sustained in real communities. Field observations have been restricted to a few cycle periods(5-8) and experimental studies indicate that oscillations may be short-lived without external stabilizing factors(9-19). Here we performed microcosm experiments with a planktonic predator-prey system and repeatedly observed oscillatory time series of unprecedented length that persisted for up to around 50 cycles or approximately 300 predator generations. The dominant type of dynamics was characterized by regular, coherent oscillations with a nearly constant predator-prey phase difference. Despite constant experimental conditions, we also observed shorter episodes of irregular, non-coherent oscillations without any significant phase relationship. However, the predator-prey system showed a strong tendency to return to the dominant dynamical regime with a defined phase relationship. A mathematical model suggests that stochasticity is probably responsible for the reversible shift from coherent to non-coherent oscillations, a notion that was supported by experiments with external forcing by pulsed nutrient supply. Our findings empirically demonstrate the potential for infinite persistence of predator and prey populations in a cyclic dynamic regime that shows resilience in the presence of stochastic events.


  
Pacing of Paleozoic macroevolutionary rates by Milankovitch grand cycles 期刊论文
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2018, 115 (22) : 5686-5691
作者:  Crampton, James S.;  Meyers, Stephen R.;  Cooper, Roger A.;  Sadler, Peter M.;  Foote, Michael;  Harte, David
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Paleozoic  graptoloids  Milankovitch grand cycles  macroevolution  macroevolutionary rates  
Is evolution predictable? 期刊论文
SCIENCE, 2018, 359 (6377) : 738-739
作者:  Reznick, David;  Travis, Joseph
收藏  |  浏览/下载:4/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27
Seasonal water storage, stress modulation, and California seismicity 期刊论文
SCIENCE, 2017, 356 (6343) : 1161-1164
作者:  Johnson, Christopher W.;  Fu, Yuning;  Burgmann, Roland
收藏  |  浏览/下载:4/0  |  提交时间:2019/11/27