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Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation 期刊论文
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, 2020, 11 (1)
作者:  Konapala, Goutam;  Mishra, Ashok K.;  Wada, Yoshihide;  Mann, Michael E.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2020/06/29
Co-occurrence is not evidence of ecological interactions 期刊论文
ECOLOGY LETTERS, 2020, 23 (7) : 1050-1063
作者:  Blanchet, F. Guillaume;  Cazelles, Kevin;  Gravel, Dominique
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/20
Co-occurrence analysis  co-occurrence networks  ecological interactions  presence-absence data  statistical inference  
Phylogenetics is the New Genetics (for Most of Biodiversity) 期刊论文
TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION, 2020, 35 (5) : 415-425
作者:  Smith, Stacey D.;  Pennell, Matthew W.;  Dunn, Casey W.;  Edwards, Scott, V
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
Extreme rainfall triggered the 2018 rift eruption at Kilauea Volcano 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 580 (7804) : 491-+
作者:  Cloutier, Richard;  Clement, Alice M.;  Lee, Michael S. Y.;  Noel, Roxanne;  Bechard, Isabelle;  Roy, Vincent;  Long, John A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:33/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

The May 2018 rift intrusion and eruption of Kilauea Volcano, Hawai'  i, represented one of its most extraordinary eruptive sequences in at least 200 years, yet the trigger mechanism remains elusive(1). The event was preceded by several months of anomalously high precipitation. It has been proposed that rainfall can modulate shallow volcanic activity(2,3), but it remains unknown whether it can have impacts at the greater depths associated with magma transport. Here we show that immediately before and during the eruption, infiltration of rainfall into Kilauea Volcano'  s subsurface increased pore pressure at depths of 1 to 3 kilometres by 0.1 to 1 kilopascals, to its highest pressure in almost 50 years. We propose that weakening and mechanical failure of the edifice was driven by changes in pore pressure within the rift zone, prompting opportunistic dyke intrusion and ultimately facilitating the eruption. A precipitation-induced eruption trigger is consistent with the lack of precursory summit inflation, showing that this intrusion-unlike others-was not caused by the forceful intrusion of new magma into the rift zone. Moreover, statistical analysis of historic eruption occurrence suggests that rainfall patterns contribute substantially to the timing and frequency of Kilauea'  s eruptions and intrusions. Thus, volcanic activity can be modulated by extreme rainfall triggering edifice rock failure-a factor that should be considered when assessing volcanic hazards. Notably, the increasingly extreme weather patterns associated with ongoing anthropogenic climate change could increase the potential for rainfall-triggered volcanic phenomena worldwide.


Immediately before and during the eruption of Ki & x304  lauea Volcano in May 2018, anomalously high rainfall increased the pore pressure in the subsurface to its highest level in 50 years, causing weakening and mechanical failure of the edifice.


  
Persistent global marine euxinia in the early Silurian 期刊论文
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, 2020, 11 (1)
作者:  Stockey, Richard G.;  Cole, Devon B.;  Planavsky, Noah J.;  Loydell, David K.;  Fryda, Jiri;  Sperling, Erik A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13
Understanding the Impact of Observation Data Uncertainty on Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts Using a Dynamic Hierarchical Model 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2020, 56 (4)
作者:  Das Bhowmik, Rajarshi;  Ng, Tze Ling;  Wang, Jui-Pin
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
uncertainty  measurement error  Bayesian  BDHM  forecasting  Streamflow  
A Comparison of Factors Driving Flood Losses in Households Affected by Different Flood Types 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2020, 56 (4)
作者:  Mohor, G. S.;  Hudson, P.;  Thieken, A. H.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:4/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
Loss modeling  Riverine floods  Surface floods  Groundwater  Levee breaches  Compound flood event  
Water Markets, Water Courts, and Transaction Costs in Colorado 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2020, 56 (4)
作者:  Womble, Philip;  Hanemann, W. Michael
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
transaction costs  water markets  water rights  water law  water courts  Colorado water  
Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 579 (7797) : 80-+
作者:  Wannes Hubau;  Simon L. Lewis;  Oliver L. Phillips;  Kofi Affum-Baffoe;  Hans Beeckman;  Aida Cuní;  -Sanchez;  Armandu K. Daniels;  Corneille E. N. Ewango;  Sophie Fauset;  Jacques M. Mukinzi;  Douglas Sheil;  Bonaventure Sonké;  Martin J. P. Sullivan;  Terry C. H. Sunderland;  Hermann Taedoumg;  Sean C. Thomas;  Lee J. T. White;  Katharine A. Abernethy;  Stephen Adu-Bredu;  Christian A. Amani;  Timothy R. Baker;  Lindsay F. Banin;  Fidè;  le Baya;  Serge K. Begne;  Amy C. Bennett;  Fabrice Benedet;  Robert Bitariho;  Yannick E. Bocko;  Pascal Boeckx;  Patrick Boundja;  Roel J. W. Brienen;  Terry Brncic;  Eric Chezeaux;  George B. Chuyong;  Connie J. Clark;  Murray Collins;  James A. Comiskey;  David A. Coomes;  Greta C. Dargie;  Thales de Haulleville;  Marie Noel Djuikouo Kamdem;  Jean-Louis Doucet;  Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert;  Ted R. Feldpausch;  Alusine Fofanah;  Ernest G. Foli;  Martin Gilpin;  Emanuel Gloor;  Christelle Gonmadje;  Sylvie Gourlet-Fleury;  Jefferson S. Hall;  Alan C. Hamilton;  David J. Harris;  Terese B. Hart;  Mireille B. N. Hockemba;  Annette Hladik;  Suspense A. Ifo;  Kathryn J. Jeffery;  Tommaso Jucker;  Emmanuel Kasongo Yakusu;  Elizabeth Kearsley;  David Kenfack;  Alexander Koch;  Miguel E. Leal;  Aurora Levesley;  Jeremy A. Lindsell;  Janvier Lisingo;  Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez;  Jon C. Lovett;  Jean-Remy Makana;  Yadvinder Malhi;  Andrew R. Marshall;  Jim Martin;  Emanuel H. Martin;  Faustin M. Mbayu;  Vincent P. Medjibe;  Vianet Mihindou;  Edward T. A. Mitchard;  Sam Moore;  Pantaleo K. T. Munishi;  Natacha Nssi Bengone;  Lucas Ojo;  Fidè;  le Evouna Ondo;  Kelvin S.-H. Peh;  Georgia C. Pickavance;  Axel Dalberg Poulsen;  John R. Poulsen;  Lan Qie;  Jan Reitsma;  Francesco Rovero;  Michael D. Swaine;  Joey Talbot;  James Taplin;  David M. Taylor;  Duncan W. Thomas;  Benjamin Toirambe;  John Tshibamba Mukendi;  Darlington Tuagben;  Peter M. Umunay;  Geertje M. F. van der Heijden;  Hans Verbeeck;  Jason Vleminckx;  Simon Willcock;  Hannsjö;  rg Wö;  ll;  John T. Woods;  Lise Zemagho
收藏  |  浏览/下载:26/0  |  提交时间:2020/05/13

Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered about half of the global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing about 15 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions(1-3). Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this tropical forest '  carbon sink'  will continue for decades(4,5). Here we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year (95 per cent confidence interval 0.53-0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests(6). Therefore the carbon sink responses of Earth'  s two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected net effect of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperature(7-9). Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our most intensively monitored plots suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including carbon dioxide, temperature, drought and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, whereas the Amazonian sink continues to weaken rapidly. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth'  s intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, independent observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern Hemisphere landmass(10) reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already peaked. This saturation and ongoing decline of the tropical forest carbon sink has consequences for policies intended to stabilize Earth'  s climate.


  
Valuation of marine plastic pollution in the European Arctic: Applying an integrated choice and latent variable model to contingent valuation 期刊论文
ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS, 2020, 169
作者:  Abate, Tenaw G.;  Borger, Tobias;  Aanese, Margrethe;  Falk-Andersson, Jannike;  Wyles, Kayleigh J.;  Beaumont, Nicola
收藏  |  浏览/下载:17/0  |  提交时间:2020/07/02
Arctic  Contingent valuation  Marine debris  Marine litter  Non-market valuation  Plastic  Waste