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Sensitivity of Marine Heatwave Metrics to Ocean Model Resolution 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019
作者:  Pilo, Gabriela S.;  Holbrook, Neil J.;  Kiss, Andrew E.;  Hogg, Andrew McC.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
marine heatwave  global ocean-sea ice model  model resolution  temperature extremes  
Arctic Soil Governs Whether Climate Change Drives Global Losses or Gains in Soil Carbon 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019
作者:  Wieder, William R.;  Sulman, Benjamin N.;  Hartman, Melannic D.;  Koven, Charles D.;  Bradford, Mark A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
soil carbon  biogeochemistry  models  microbial explicit  carbon cycle  Arctic  
Long-term cyclic persistence in an experimental predator-prey system 期刊论文
NATURE, 2020, 577 (7789) : 226-+
作者:  Blasius, Bernd;  Rudolf, Lars;  Weithoff, Guntram;  Gaedke, Ursula;  Fussmann, Gregor F.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:8/0  |  提交时间:2020/04/16

Predator-prey cycles rank among the most fundamental concepts in ecology, are predicted by the simplest ecological models and enable, theoretically, the indefinite persistence of predator and prey(1-4). However, it remains an open question for how long cyclic dynamics can be self-sustained in real communities. Field observations have been restricted to a few cycle periods(5-8) and experimental studies indicate that oscillations may be short-lived without external stabilizing factors(9-19). Here we performed microcosm experiments with a planktonic predator-prey system and repeatedly observed oscillatory time series of unprecedented length that persisted for up to around 50 cycles or approximately 300 predator generations. The dominant type of dynamics was characterized by regular, coherent oscillations with a nearly constant predator-prey phase difference. Despite constant experimental conditions, we also observed shorter episodes of irregular, non-coherent oscillations without any significant phase relationship. However, the predator-prey system showed a strong tendency to return to the dominant dynamical regime with a defined phase relationship. A mathematical model suggests that stochasticity is probably responsible for the reversible shift from coherent to non-coherent oscillations, a notion that was supported by experiments with external forcing by pulsed nutrient supply. Our findings empirically demonstrate the potential for infinite persistence of predator and prey populations in a cyclic dynamic regime that shows resilience in the presence of stochastic events.


  
Hiding from the climate: Characterizing microrefugia for boreal forest understory species 期刊论文
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019
作者:  Greiser, Caroline;  Ehrlen, Johan;  Meineri, Eric;  Hylander, Kristoffer
收藏  |  浏览/下载:11/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
cold-adapted species  marginal populations  microclimate  range contraction  range edge  range shift  rear edge  thermal niche  
Understanding and Modeling the Occurrence of E. coli Blooms in Drinking Water Reservoirs 期刊论文
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2019, 55 (12) : 10518-10526
作者:  Bertone, Edoardo;  Kozak, Sonya;  Roiko, Anne
收藏  |  浏览/下载:5/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/16
Bayesian Network  Escherichia coli  risk assessment  water resources management  
Realistic Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Variability in Historical and Decadal Hindcast Simulations Using CMIP6 Forcing 期刊论文
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019, 46 (23) : 14118-14125
作者:  Pohlmann, Holger;  Mueller, Wolfgang A.;  Bittner, Matthias;  Hettrich, Sebastian;  Modali, Kameswarrao;  Pankatz, Klaus;  Marotzke, Jochem
收藏  |  浏览/下载:15/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
CMIP6  decadal prediction  quasi-biennial oscillation  
A dynamical statistical framework for seasonal streamflow forecasting in an agricultural watershed 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53 (12) : 7429-7445
作者:  Slater, Louise J.;  Villarini, Gabriele;  Bradley, A. Allen;  Vecchi, Gabriel A.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Seasonal forecasting  Probabilistic forecast  Streamflow forecasts  North-American Multi Model ensemble (NMME)  
Effects of skid trails on understory vegetation in forests: A case study from Northern Bavaria (Germany) 期刊论文
FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT, 2019, 453
作者:  Mercier, Paula;  Aas, Gregor;  Dengler, Juergen
收藏  |  浏览/下载:9/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Biodiversity  Bryophyte  Ecological indicator value  Forest management  Germany  Logging trail  Skid trail  Soil compaction  Temperate forest  Understory vegetation  Vascular plant  
Seasonal drought ensemble predictions based on multiple climate models in the upper Han River Basin, China 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2019, 53 (12) : 7447-7460
作者:  Ma, Feng;  Ye, Aizhong;  Duan, Qingyun
收藏  |  浏览/下载:10/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Seasonal drought forecasting system  NMME  DTVGM  Soil moisture  Han River basin  
Pruning promotes the formation of an insufficient number of cavities for hollow-dependent birds in Iberian Holm-oak dehesas 期刊论文
FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT, 2019, 453
作者:  Aviles, Jesus M.
收藏  |  浏览/下载:6/0  |  提交时间:2020/02/17
Dehesas  Forest management  Iberia  Non-excavator birds  Pruning  Tree-hollow