The Mechanisms of Natural Variability and its Interaction with Anthropogenic Climate Change Final Report

doi:10.2172/1168985

GSTDTAP > 地球科学

DOI	10.2172/1168985
报告编号	Final Report: DOE-Princeton-SC0005189
来源ID	OSTI ID: 1168985
	The Mechanisms of Natural Variability and its Interaction with Anthropogenic Climate Change Final Report
	Vallis, Geoffrey K.
	2015-02-01
出版年	2015
语种	英语
国家	美国
领域	地球科学
英文摘要	The project had two main components. The first concerns estimating the climate sensitivity in the presence of forcing uncertainty and natural variability. Climate sensitivity is the increase in the average surface temperature for a given increase in greenhouse gases, for example a doubling of carbon dioxide. We have provided new, probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity using a simple climate model an the observed warming in the 20th century, in conjunction with ideas in data assimilation and parameter estimation developed in the engineering community. The estimates combine the uncertainty in the anthropogenic aerosols with the uncertainty arising because of natural variability. The second component concerns how the atmospheric circulation itself might change with anthropogenic global warming. We have shown that GCMs robustly predict an increase in the length scale of eddies, and we have also explored the dynamical mechanisms whereby there might be a shift in the latitude of the jet stream associated with anthropogenic warming. Such shifts in the jet might cause large changes in regional climate, potentially larger than the globally-averaged signal itself. We have also shown that the tropopause robustly increases in height with global warming, and that the Hadley Cell expands, and that the expansion of the Hadley Cell is correlated with the polewards movement of the mid-latitude jet.
英文关键词	Anthropogenic Climate Change, Natural Variability, Climate Sensitivity,
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来源平台	US Department of Energy (DOE)
引用统计
文献类型	科技报告
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/7064
专题	地球科学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vallis, Geoffrey K.. The Mechanisms of Natural Variability and its Interaction with Anthropogenic Climate Change Final Report,2015.