Characterization of the Dynamics of Climate Systems and Identification of Missing Mechanisms Impacting the Long Term Predictive Capabilities of Global Climate Models Utilizing Dynamical Systems Approaches to the Analysis of Observed and Modeled Climate

doi:10.2172/1225814

GSTDTAP > 地球科学

DOI	10.2172/1225814
报告编号	DOE-UAF--0001898-1
来源ID	OSTI ID: 1225814
	Characterization of the Dynamics of Climate Systems and Identification of Missing Mechanisms Impacting the Long Term Predictive Capabilities of Global Climate Models Utilizing Dynamical Systems Approaches to the Analysis of Observed and Modeled Climate
	Bhatt, Uma S.; Wackerbauer, Renate; Polyakov, Igor V.; Newman, David E.; Sanchez, Raul E.
	2015-11-13
出版年	2015
页数	7
语种	英语
国家	美国
领域	地球科学
英文摘要	The goal of this research was to apply fractional and non-linear analysis techniques in order to develop a more complete characterization of climate change and variability for the oceanic, sea ice and atmospheric components of the Earth System. This research applied two measures of dynamical characteristics of time series, the R/S method of calculating the Hurst exponent and Renyi entropy, to observational and modeled climate data in order to evaluate how well climate models capture the long-term dynamics evident in observations. Fractional diffusion analysis was applied to ARGO ocean buoy data to quantify ocean transport. Self organized maps were applied to North Pacific sea level pressure and analyzed in ways to improve seasonal predictability for Alaska fire weather. This body of research shows that these methods can be used to evaluate climate models and shed light on climate mechanisms (i.e., understanding why something happens). With further research, these methods show promise for improving seasonal to longer time scale forecasts of climate.
英文关键词	Climate Global Climate Models Climate indices Hurst Exponent Reyni entropy
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来源平台	US Department of Energy (DOE)
引用统计
文献类型	科技报告
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/6821
专题	地球科学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bhatt, Uma S.,Wackerbauer, Renate,Polyakov, Igor V.,et al. Characterization of the Dynamics of Climate Systems and Identification of Missing Mechanisms Impacting the Long Term Predictive Capabilities of Global Climate Models Utilizing Dynamical Systems Approaches to the Analysis of Observed and Modeled Climate,2015.