Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.2172/1127130 |
报告编号 | DOE-CU-05109 |
来源ID | OSTI ID: 1127130 |
Collaborative Research: Separating Forced and Unforced Decadal Predictability in Models and Observations | |
Tippett, Michael K. | |
2014-04-09 | |
出版年 | 2014 |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | 美国 |
领域 | 地球科学 |
英文摘要 | This report is a progress report of the accomplishments of the research grant âCollaborative Research: Separating Forced and Unforced Decadal Predictability in Models and Observa- tionsâ during the period 1 May 2011- 31 August 2013. This project is a collaborative one between Columbia University and George Mason University. George Mason University will submit a final technical report at the conclusion of their no-cost extension. The purpose of the proposed research is to identify unforced predictable components on decadal time scales, distinguish these components from forced predictable components, and to assess the reliability of model predictions of these components. Components of unforced decadal predictability will be isolated by maximizing the Average Predictability Time (APT) in long, multimodel control runs from state-of-the-art climate models. Components with decadal predictability have large APT, so maximizing APT ensures that components with decadal predictability will be detected. Optimal fingerprinting techniques, as used in detection and attribution analysis, will be used to separate variations due to natural and anthropogenic forcing from those due to unforced decadal predictability. This methodology will be applied to the decadal hindcasts generated by the CMIP5 project to assess the reliability of model projections. The question of whether anthropogenic forcing changes decadal predictability, or gives rise to new forms of decadal predictability, also will be investigated. |
URL | 查看原文 |
来源平台 | US Department of Energy (DOE) |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 科技报告 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/6468 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tippett, Michael K.. Collaborative Research: Separating Forced and Unforced Decadal Predictability in Models and Observations,2014. |
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