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DOI10.2172/1028887
报告编号SAND2010-2200
来源IDOSTI ID: 1028887
Executive summary for assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.
Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Reinert, Rhonda K.; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.
2010-04-01
出版年2010
页数28
语种英语
国家美国
领域地球科学
英文摘要Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have resolved all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. This study demonstrates a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts of climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity from 2010 to 2050. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions to mitigate the course of climate change, we focus on precipitation, one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change. We use results of the climate-model ensemble from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) as a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. We determine the industry-level contribution to the gross domestic product and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effects on personal income, and consequences for the U.S. trade balance. We show that the mean or average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs.
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来源平台US Department of Energy (DOE)
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文献类型科技报告
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/4886
专题地球科学
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GB/T 7714
Loose, Verne W.,Lowry, Thomas Stephen,Malczynski, Leonard A.,et al. Executive summary for assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.,2010.
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