Managing Water Quality in the Face of Uncertainty: A Robust Decision Making Demonstration for EPA's National Water Program

doi:10.7249/RR720

GSTDTAP > 资源环境科学

DOI	10.7249/RR720
报告编号	RR-720-EPA
	Managing Water Quality in the Face of Uncertainty: A Robust Decision Making Demonstration for EPA's National Water Program
	Jordan R. Fischbach; Robert J. Lempert; Edmundo Molina-Perez; Abdul Ahad Tariq; Melissa L. Finucane; Frauke Hoss
	2015
出版年	2015
页数	162
语种	英语
国家	美国
出版者	RAND Corporation
领域	资源环境
英文摘要	The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), together with its state and local partners, develops watershed implementation plans designed to meet total maximum daily load (TMDL) water quality standards. Uncertainty regarding the impacts of climate change, future land use, the effectiveness of best management practices, and other drivers may make it difficult for these implementation plans to meet water quality goals. But the methods and processes used to develop implementation plans typically do not address uncertainty in these key drivers of change. In this study, RAND researchers explored how Robust Decision Making (RDM) methods could help USEPA and its partners develop implementation plans that are more robust to such uncertainty. Through two pilot case studies — one on the Patuxent River in Maryland and one on the North Farm Creek tributary of the Illinois River — this study shows how analytic RDM methods can be used to identify future vulnerabilities in TMDL implementation plans and suggest appropriate responses. In both case studies, proposed plans meet their water quality goals under current assumptions, but do not meet water quality goals in many climate and other futures. The study finds that modified plans and adaptive management approaches can often reduce these vulnerabilities. Moving forward, USEPA and its partners can better manage future uncertainty by employing iterative risk management processes and adopting TMDL implementation plans that are robust and flexible.
英文关键词	Illinois Alumni Global Climate Change Environmental Pollution Maryland Water Resources Management Robust Decision Making Students
URL	查看原文
来源平台	Rand Corporation
引用统计
文献类型	科技报告
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/4170
专题	资源环境科学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jordan R. Fischbach,Robert J. Lempert,Edmundo Molina-Perez,et al. Managing Water Quality in the Face of Uncertainty: A Robust Decision Making Demonstration for EPA's National Water Program:RAND Corporation,2015.