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DOI | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.08.002 |
Projection of spatial and temporal changes of rainfall in Sarawak of Borneo Island using statistical downscaling of CMIP5 models | |
Sa&1; 39;adi, Zulfaqar2 | |
2017-11-15 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0169-8095 |
EISSN | 1873-2895 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 197 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Malaysia; South Korea |
英文摘要 | This study assesses the possible changes in rainfall patterns of Sarawak in Borneo Island due to climate change through statistical downscaling of General Circulation Models (GCM) projections. Available in -situ observed rainfall data were used to downscale the future rainfall from ensembles of 20 GCMs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) for four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. Model Output Statistics (MOS) based downscaling models were developed using two data mining approaches known as Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The SVM was found to downscale all GCMs with normalized mean square error (NMSE) of 48.2-75.2 and skill score (SS) of 0.94-0.98 during validation. The results show that the future projection of the annual rainfalls is increasing and decreasing on the region-based and catchment-based basis due to the influence of the monsoon season affecting the coast of Sarawak. The ensemble mean of GCMs projections reveals the increased and decreased mean of annual precipitations at 33 stations with the rate of 0.1% to 19.6% and one station with the rate of - 7.9% to - 3.1%, respectively under all RCP scenarios. The remaining 15 stations showed inconsistency neither increasing nor decreasing at the rate of - 5.6% to 5.2%, but mainly showing a trend of decreasing rainfall during the first period (2010-2039) followed by increasing rainfall for the period of 2070-2099. |
英文关键词 | Statistical downscaling Climate change projection General circulation model Representative concentration pathways Sarawak |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000412250700037 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; SIMULATED PRECIPITATION ; GLOBAL CLIMATE ; WEATHER ; OUTPUTS ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; EXTREMES ; MAXIMUM |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/38418 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.UTM, Fac Civil Engn, Johor Baharu 81310, Malaysia; 2.Seoul Natl Univ Sci & Technol, Fac Civil Engn, Seoul 01811, South Korea |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sa&,39;adi, Zulfaqar. Projection of spatial and temporal changes of rainfall in Sarawak of Borneo Island using statistical downscaling of CMIP5 models[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2017,197. |
APA | Sa&,&39;adi, Zulfaqar.(2017).Projection of spatial and temporal changes of rainfall in Sarawak of Borneo Island using statistical downscaling of CMIP5 models.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,197. |
MLA | Sa&,et al."Projection of spatial and temporal changes of rainfall in Sarawak of Borneo Island using statistical downscaling of CMIP5 models".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 197(2017). |
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