Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.02.006 |
Contributions of natural climate changes and human activities to the trend of extreme precipitation | |
Gao, Lu1,2,3,4; Huang, Jie2; Chen, Xingwei1,2,3,4; Chen, Ying1,2,3,4; Liu, Meibing1,2,3,4 | |
2018-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0169-8095 |
EISSN | 1873-2895 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 205页码:60-69 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | This study focuses on the analysis of the nonstationarlty characteristics of extreme precipitation and their attributions in the southeastern coastal region of China. The maximum daily precipitation (MDP) series is extracted from observations at 79 meteorological stations in the study area during the first flood season (April-June) from 1960 to 2012. The trends of the mean (Mn) and variance (Var) of MDP are detected using the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape parameters (GAMLSS) and Mann-Kendall test. The contributions of natural climate change and human activities to the Mn and Var changes of MDP are investigated using six large-scale circulation variables and emissions of four greenhouse gases based on GAMLSS and a contribution analysis method. The results demonstrate that the nonstadonarity of extreme precipitation on local scales is significant. The Mn and Var of extreme precipitation increase in the north of Zhejiang, the middle of Fujian, and the south of Guangdong. In general, natural climate change contributes more to Mn from 1960 to 2012 than to Var. However, human activities cause a greater Var in the rapid socioeconomic development period (1986-2012) than in the slow socioeconomic development period (1960-1985), especially in Zhejiang and Guangdong. The community should pay more attention to the possibility of extreme precipitation events and associated disasters triggered by human activities. |
英文关键词 | Nonstationarity Precipitation Trend Climate change Human activity Risk |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000429512200007 |
WOS关键词 | LAND-COVER CHANGE ; SPATIOTEMPORAL VARIATIONS ; EASTERN CHINA ; RIVER-BASIN ; SOUTH CHINA ; VARIABILITY ; EVENTS ; FLOOD ; STATIONARITY ; TEMPERATURE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/38370 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Fujian Normal Univ, Inst Geog, Fuzhou, Fujian, Peoples R China; 2.Fujian Normal Univ, Coll Geog Sci, Fuzhou, Fujian, Peoples R China; 3.Fujian Normal Univ, Fujian Prov Engn Res Ctr Monitoring & Assessing T, Fuzhou, Fujian, Peoples R China; 4.Fujian Normal Univ, State Key Lab Subtrop Mt Ecol, Minist Sci & Technol & Fujian Prov, Fuzhou, Fujian, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gao, Lu,Huang, Jie,Chen, Xingwei,et al. Contributions of natural climate changes and human activities to the trend of extreme precipitation[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2018,205:60-69. |
APA | Gao, Lu,Huang, Jie,Chen, Xingwei,Chen, Ying,&Liu, Meibing.(2018).Contributions of natural climate changes and human activities to the trend of extreme precipitation.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,205,60-69. |
MLA | Gao, Lu,et al."Contributions of natural climate changes and human activities to the trend of extreme precipitation".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 205(2018):60-69. |
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