GSTDTAP  > 地球科学
DOI10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.08.012
Climate change effects on summertime precipitation organization in the Southeast United States
Ferreira, Rosana Nieto1; Nissenbaum, Mark R.2; Rickenbach, Thomas M.3
2018-12-01
发表期刊ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
ISSN0169-8095
EISSN1873-2895
出版年2018
卷号214页码:348-363
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

As the earth warms, it is unclear how the organization of precipitation will change, or how these changes will impact regional rainfall and the hydrological cycle. This study combines Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations and the pseudo global warming downscaling approach with a precipitation feature identification algorithm to help improve our understanding of the effect of warming on precipitation organization. The WRF model was used to simulate precipitation during a six-day summer period in the southeastern United States under present and future warmer climate conditions. The domain averaged precipitation increased by 45% in the future climate simulation compared to current climate. Modeled precipitation features were classified into either mesoscale precipitation features (MPF) larger than 100 km in length or smaller isolated precipitation features (IPF). In terms of organization, future IPF precipitation fraction decreased while MPF precipitation fraction and feature sizes increased, especially over the ocean, indicating a general increase in mesoscale organization in the future warmer climate. Despite higher thermodynamic instability, future climate IPF precipitation was unchanged over land, possibly responding to stronger subsidence under a strengthened western ridge of the North Atlantic Subtropical High. Yet over the ocean IPF precipitation increased and the amplitude of the IPF diurnal cycle doubled. The most notable precipitation intensity increase, as measured by feature height and rainrate distributions, occurred in oceanic MPFs. These increases in oceanic IPF and MPF precipitation may highlight the role of surface water vapor fluxes in realizing increased precipitation in a warmer climate. This study demonstrates that the application of a simple precipitation feature identification algorithm to WRF simulations can give valuable insight into the effect of climate change upon precipitation organization and intensity. Nevertheless longer simulations are still needed to obtain a robust statistics of the changes of precipitation organization under a warming climate.


英文关键词Climate change Precipitation organization Regional climate modeling
领域地球科学
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000445990400028
WOS关键词RAINFALL VARIABILITY ; FUTURE CHANGES ; CONVECTION ; TRMM ; INTENSIFICATION ; MODEL ; CYCLE ; TEMPERATURE ; MORPHOLOGY ; INTENSITY
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/38236
专题地球科学
作者单位1.East Carolina Univ, Dept Geog Planning & Environm, A-227 Brewster Bldg, Greenville, NC 27858 USA;
2.Florida State Univ, Dept Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Tallahassee, FL USA;
3.East Carolina Univ, Dept Geog Planning & Environm, Greenville, NC 27858 USA
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Ferreira, Rosana Nieto,Nissenbaum, Mark R.,Rickenbach, Thomas M.. Climate change effects on summertime precipitation organization in the Southeast United States[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2018,214:348-363.
APA Ferreira, Rosana Nieto,Nissenbaum, Mark R.,&Rickenbach, Thomas M..(2018).Climate change effects on summertime precipitation organization in the Southeast United States.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,214,348-363.
MLA Ferreira, Rosana Nieto,et al."Climate change effects on summertime precipitation organization in the Southeast United States".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 214(2018):348-363.
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