Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.01.016 |
Estimating the snowfall limit in alpine and pre-alpine valleys: A local evaluation of operational approaches | |
Fehlmann, Michael1; Gascon, Estibaliz2; Rohrer, Mario1,3; Schwarb, Manfred3; Stoffel, Markus1,4,5 | |
2018-05-15 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0169-8095 |
EISSN | 1873-2895 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 204页码:136-148 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Switzerland; England |
英文摘要 | The snowfall limit has important implications for different hazardous processes associated with prolonged or heavy precipitation such as flash floods, rain-on-snow events and freezing precipitation. To increase preparedness and to reduce risk in such situations, early warning systems are frequently used to monitor and predict precipitation events at different temporal and spatial scales. However, in alpine and pre-alpine valleys, the estimation of the snowfall limit remains rather challenging. In this study, we characterize uncertainties related to snowfall limit for different lead times based on local measurements of a vertically pointing micro rain radar (MRR) and a disdrometer in the Zulg valley, Switzerland. Regarding the monitoring, we show that the interpolation of surface temperatures tends to overestimate the altitude of the snowfall limit and can thus lead to highly uncertain estimates of liquid precipitation in the catchment. This bias is much smaller in the Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) system, which integrates surface station and remotely sensed data as well as outputs of a numerical weather prediction model. To reduce systematic error, we perform a bias correction based on local MRR measurements and thereby demonstrate the added value of such measurements for the estimation of liquid precipitation in the catchment. Regarding the nowcasting, we show that the INCA system provides good estimates up to 6 h ahead and is thus considered promising for operational hydrological applications. Finally, we explore the medium-range forecasting of precipitation type, especially with respect to rain-on-snow events. We show for a selected case study that the probability for a certain precipitation type in an ensemble-based forecast is more persistent than the respective type in the high-resolution forecast (HRES) of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF IFS). In this case study, the ensemble-based forecast could be used to anticipate such an event up up 7-8 days ahead, whereas the use of the HRES is limited to a lead time of 4-5 days. For the different lead times investigated, we point out possibilities of considering uncertainties in snowfall limit and precipitation type estimates so as to increase preparedness to risk situations. |
英文关键词 | Snowfall limit Melting layer Precipitation type Early warning Micro rain radar Bright band |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000428494800012 |
WOS关键词 | FLOOD ALERT SYSTEM ; POLARIMETRIC RADAR ; SIERRA-NEVADA ; UNITED-STATES ; ICE STORM ; PRECIPITATION ; RAIN ; EVENTS ; CLASSIFICATION ; FORECASTS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/38207 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Geneva, Inst Environm Sci, Climate Change Impacts & Risks Anthropocene C CIA, Blvd Carl Vogt 66, CH-1205 Geneva, Switzerland; 2.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF, Forecast Dept, Shinfield Pk, Reading RG2 9AX, Berks, England; 3.Meteodat GmbH, Technopk Str 1, CH-8005 Zurich, Switzerland; 4.Univ Geneva, Dept Earth Sci, Rue Maraichers 13, CH-1205 Geneva, Switzerland; 5.Univ Geneva, Dept FA Forel Environm & Aquat Sci, Blvd Carl Vogt 66, CH-1205 Geneva, Switzerland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fehlmann, Michael,Gascon, Estibaliz,Rohrer, Mario,et al. Estimating the snowfall limit in alpine and pre-alpine valleys: A local evaluation of operational approaches[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2018,204:136-148. |
APA | Fehlmann, Michael,Gascon, Estibaliz,Rohrer, Mario,Schwarb, Manfred,&Stoffel, Markus.(2018).Estimating the snowfall limit in alpine and pre-alpine valleys: A local evaluation of operational approaches.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,204,136-148. |
MLA | Fehlmann, Michael,et al."Estimating the snowfall limit in alpine and pre-alpine valleys: A local evaluation of operational approaches".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 204(2018):136-148. |
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