资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The El Nifio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the dominant mode of global climate variability and is inherently nonlinear such that the linearity of the atmospheric response remains an area of ongoing research. The phase of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific North American (PNA) patterns of intra-annual climate variability are favored to be the same as the phase of ENSO resulting in important climate impacts across Europe and North America. Advanced understanding of the symmetry of this response at global scale using monthly composite analyses of anomalous horizontal sensible and latent heat fluxes at various ENSO event magnitudes quantified from ERA-Interim output (January 1979 through June 2016) will advance impact predictability. A linear relationship between ENSO, PNA, and NAO patterns was identified, particularly for strong ENSO events. The nonlinear component indicated general eastward (westward) shifts in anomalous heat fluxes during El Nifio (La Nina) events such that the greatest impacts were implied across North America during Decembers and Januarys of strong El Nifio and weak La Nifia events. Analyses of anomalous latent heat fluxes indicated spatial patterns consistent with more frequent atmospheric river phenomena, especially during Decembers and Januarys of strong El Nifio events. This work demonstrates that the symmetric component of anomalous horizontal, tropospheric-mean heat fluxes corresponding to ENSO events are effective for identifying north-south dipoles of anomalous circulations consistent with PNA or NAO patterns and connections between tropical heat source regions and the PNA and NAO regions. This work also demonstrates the asymmetric component identified differences in anomalous circulation position and whether El Nifio or La Nifia resulted in larger heat flux anomalies. Therefore, this work provides insight into impacts associated with future ENSO events, especially across North America during strong El Nifio and weak La Nina.