Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.12.003 |
Climate, conflict and forced migration | |
Abel, Guy J.1,2; Brottrager, Michael3,4; Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo5,6; Muttarak, Raya2,7 | |
2019 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
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ISSN | 0959-3780 |
EISSN | 1872-9495 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 54页码:239-249 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; Austria; England |
英文摘要 | Despite the lack of robust empirical evidence, a growing number of media reports attempt to link climate change to the ongoing violent conflicts in Syria and other parts of the world, as well as to the migration crisis in Europe. Exploiting bilateral data on asylum seeking applications for 157 countries over the period 2006-2015, we assess the determinants of refugee flows using a gravity model which accounts for endogenous selection in order to examine the causal link between climate, conflict and forced migration. Our results indicate that climatic conditions, by affecting drought severity and the likelihood of armed conflict, played a significant role as an explanatory factor for asylum seeking in the period 2011-2015. The effect of climate on conflict occurrence is particularly relevant for countries in Western Asia in the period 2010-2012 during when many countries were undergoing political transformation. This finding suggests that the impact of climate on conflict and asylum seeking flows is limited to specific time period and contexts. |
英文关键词 | Asylum seeker Climate change Conflict Endogenous selection Forced migration Gravity model Refugee Simultaneous equations SPEI |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000458468400023 |
WOS关键词 | INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION ; ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION ; CIVIL CONFLICT ; ARMED-CONFLICT ; VARIABILITY ; DROUGHT ; DETERMINANTS ; DISASTERS ; RAINFALL ; DATASET |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Geography |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/38144 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Shanghai Univ, ADRI, Shanghai, Peoples R China; 2.IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria; 3.Johannes Kepler Univ Linz JKU, Linz, Austria; 4.Vienna Univ Econ & Business WU, Vienna, Austria; 5.Vienna Univ Econ & Business WU, IIASA, Welthandelspl 1, A-1090 Vienna, Austria; 6.Austrian Inst Econ Res WIFO, Welthandelspl 1, A-1090 Vienna, Austria; 7.Univ East Anglia, Sch Int Dev, Norwich, Norfolk, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Abel, Guy J.,Brottrager, Michael,Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo,et al. Climate, conflict and forced migration[J]. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,2019,54:239-249. |
APA | Abel, Guy J.,Brottrager, Michael,Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo,&Muttarak, Raya.(2019).Climate, conflict and forced migration.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,54,239-249. |
MLA | Abel, Guy J.,et al."Climate, conflict and forced migration".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 54(2019):239-249. |
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