Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.11.007 |
Escalating impacts of climate extremes on critical infrastructures in Europe | |
Forzieri, Giovanni1; Bianchi, Alessandra2; Batista e Silva, Filipe3; Herrera, Mario A. Marin4; Leblois, Antoine5; Lavalle, Carlo3; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.6,7; Feyen, Luc8 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS |
ISSN | 0959-3780 |
EISSN | 1872-9495 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 48页码:97-107 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Italy; Luxembourg; France; Netherlands |
英文摘要 | Extreme climatic events are likely to become more frequent owing to global warming. This may put additional stress on critical infrastructures with typically long life spans. However, little is known about the risks of multiple climate extremes on critical infrastructures at regional to continental scales. Here we show how single and multi-hazard damage to energy, transport, industrial, and social critical infrastructures in Europe are likely to develop until the year 2100 under the influence of climate change. We combine a set of high-resolution climate hazard projections, a detailed representation of physical assets in various sectors and their sensitivity to the hazards, and more than 1100 records of losses from climate extremes in a prognostic modelling framework. We find that damages could triple by the 2020s, multiply six-fold by mid-century, and amount to more than 10 times present damage of 3.4 billion per year by the end of the century due only to climate change. Damage from heatwaves, droughts in southern Europe, and coastal floods shows the most dramatic rise, but the risks of inland flooding, windstorms, and forest fires will also increase in Europe, with varying degrees of change across regions. Economic losses are highest for the industry, transport, and energy sectors. Future losses will not be incurred equally across Europe. Southern and south-eastern European countries will be most affected and, as a result, will probably require higher costs of adaptation. The findings of this study could aid in prioritizing regional investments to address the unequal burden of impacts and differences in adaptation capacities across Europe. |
英文关键词 | Multiple climate hazards Climate change impact Loss and damage Critical infrastructures |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000429399000010 |
WOS关键词 | NATURAL HAZARDS ; DISASTER RISK ; CONSEQUENCES ; DAMAGE ; COSTS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Geography |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/38019 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Directorate Sustainable Resources, I-21027 Ispra, Italy; 2.Arcadia SIT, I-27029 Vigevano, Italy; 3.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Directorate Growth & Innovat, I-21027 Ispra, Italy; 4.Arhs Dev, L-1253 Luxembourg, Luxembourg; 5.AgroParisTech, INRA, LEF, F-54000 Nancy, France; 6.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, AGCI, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands; 7.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands; 8.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Directorate Space Secur & Migrat, I-21027 Ispra, Italy |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Forzieri, Giovanni,Bianchi, Alessandra,Batista e Silva, Filipe,et al. Escalating impacts of climate extremes on critical infrastructures in Europe[J]. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,2018,48:97-107. |
APA | Forzieri, Giovanni.,Bianchi, Alessandra.,Batista e Silva, Filipe.,Herrera, Mario A. Marin.,Leblois, Antoine.,...&Feyen, Luc.(2018).Escalating impacts of climate extremes on critical infrastructures in Europe.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,48,97-107. |
MLA | Forzieri, Giovanni,et al."Escalating impacts of climate extremes on critical infrastructures in Europe".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 48(2018):97-107. |
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